With Constant Roster Shuffling, Are Orioles Hurting Kevin Gausman?

[webbrick2010]

I don't just want to argue. Frankly if I was looking for a quality argument I wouldn't be bothering with you.

I just want you to admit that your earlier statement was false.

Gausman had no realistic chance to make the rotation out of Spring Training.

No one but Buck or DD knows what chance ("realistic", 10%, 25% ??) Gasman had of making the starting rotation out of Spring Training so my statement cannot be defined as True/False, it is just speculation.

For all I/we know DD could have been very close to trading Norris and thus Gausman would have been the #5 starter. Someone could have been injured (very realistic I think) and Gausman would have been the 5th starter.

I don't know what Buck/DD used to make their decision, but hindsight indicates that their preference is for the veteran with a considerable ML track record so I guess your argument is that he had no "realistic" chance and no one should have wasted their time speculating, but as I don't meet with DD/Buck so for me it is all SPECULATION.

[Crazysilver03]

Isn't the reality that he has battled injuries after a very ineffective spring training when he didn't make a case to be in the starting rotation?

I hope he gets his chance for the final 3 months, and I hope he is good but he definitely isn't a lock to be a TOR starter.

How did he not make a case? It is hard to make a case when you will only be an injury replacement.

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[El Gordo]

Gausman would have been in the rotation replacing Gonzo, had he not been injured himself.

[jtschrei]

Why did he need to have his innings managed?

Do you think he was a real threat to pitch over 200 innings this year?

Folks act like he only pitched 70 innings last year.

I hear you. And maybe I'm making too many assumptions. Gausman pitched 113 innings last year. According to the regiment most ML organizations are using, and Rick Peterson is a proponent, you should only pitch a young pitcher 25 or 30 innings more than the previous season. That would put him at 143 max this year. Plus, I think the O's mayhave been thinking about 3 rounds of playoffs. Anyway, I do think they were managing him very carefully earlier in the year and I surmise it was because the organization is worried about his innings.

Source: "Peterson believed that as in most training disciplines, you increase workload gradually. He preferred not to increase a young pitcher's innings by more than 25 or 30 per year." (http://www.si.com/mlb/2015/02/03/year-after-effect-madison-bumgarner-yordano-ventura)

[Can_of_corn]

I hear you. And maybe I'm making too many assumptions. Gausman pitched 113 innings last year. According to the regiment most ML organizations are using, and Rick Peterson is a proponent, you should only pitch a young pitcher 25 or 30 innings more than the previous season. That would put him at 143 max this year. Plus, I think the O's mayhave been thinking about 3 rounds of playoffs. Anyway, I do think they were managing him very carefully earlier in the year and I surmise it was because the organization is worried about his innings.

Source: "Peterson believed that as in most training disciplines, you increase workload gradually. He preferred not to increase a young pitcher's innings by more than 25 or 30 per year." (http://www.si.com/mlb/2015/02/03/year-after-effect-madison-bumgarner-yordano-ventura)

Gausman pitched more then 113 innings last year.

2014 MLB regular season 113

2014 MLB playoffs 8

2014 MiLB regular season 45.1

Total innings pitched- 166.1

He should be good for 190 easy.

Not sure why everyone (not just you) forgets he pitched in the minors last year.

[wildcard]

Gausman pitched more then 113 innings last year.

2014 MLB regular season 113

2014 MLB playoffs 8

2014 MiLB regular season 45.1

Total innings pitched- 166.1

He should be good for 190 easy.

Not sure why everyone (not just you) forgets he pitched in the minors last year.

Exactly. And if Gausman's max innings are 196 then the O's had to manage his innings. If he would have got 33 starts his innings could have been around 200. Then their is the playoffs. If he is one of the best three starters he could be between 8-30 innings in the playoffs. Bumgarner pitched 52 innings in the playoffs last year.

So the O's started April managing his innings and then on May 6th he goes on the DL with right shoulder tendinitis.

I don't think anyone knows what Gausman will do the 2nd half, but Norris and Tillman have set the bar pretty low.

As far as Gausman being a #1. At 24 there is a lot of baseball yet to play and Wallace has developed pitchers with very good stuff into aces before.

[Can_of_corn]

Exactly. And if Gausman's max innings are 196 then the O's had to manage his innings. If he would have got 33 starts his innings could have been around 200. Then their is the playoffs. If he is one of the best three starters he could be between 8-30 innings in the playoffs. Bumgarner pitched 52 innings in the playoffs last year.

So the O's started April managing his innings and then on May 6th he goes on the DL with right shoulder tendinitis.

I don't think anyone knows what Gausman will do the 2nd half, but Norris and Tillman have set the bar pretty low.

As far as Gausman being a #1. At 24 there is a lot of baseball yet to play and Wallace has developed pitchers with very good stuff into aces before.

How often in the last decade has an Oriole starter exceeded 196 innings?

Of course if it did look like Gausman was closing in on a dangerous total of innings it would be simplicity itself to skip him a start, or move him back a day after off days, or pull him early if there is a big lead, and carve off the 10-20 innings he might need in a best case scenario (goes deep into games + playoffs).

[weams]

How often in the last decade has an Oriole starter exceeded 196 innings?

Of course if it did look like Gausman was closing in on a dangerous total of innings it would be simplicity itself to skip him a start, or move him back a day after off days, or pull him early if there is a big lead, and carve off the 10-20 innings he might need in a best case scenario (goes deep into games + playoffs).

Chris Tillman?

[Can_of_corn]

Chris Tillman?

Tillman has.

Guthrie.

DCab in '07.

Bedard hit 196.1 in '06. (I think we would be OK with that for Gausman).

Lopez and Chen in '05.

Chen has once if you include the playoffs.

So basically once a season.

And it has gone down since Buck showed up, despite the pitching being better.

I think it is a pretty moderate risk that could have been handled easily during the season.

[wildcard]

How often in the last decade has an Oriole starter exceeded 196 innings?

Of course if it did look like Gausman was closing in on a dangerous total of innings it would be simplicity itself to skip him a start, or move him back a day after off days, or pull him early if there is a big lead, and carve off the 10-20 innings he might need in a best case scenario (goes deep into games + playoffs).

If Gausman is pitching well in the tight pennant race, Sept is not when to manage his innings. April is a better time to do that.

[Can_of_corn]

If Gausman is pitching well in the tight pennant race, Sept is not when to manage his innings. April is a better time to do that.

No. July, right around the all star break, is the time to do it.

By then you should have a gauge on if it would actually be an issue.

It isn't as if you would have to shed 30 innings.