Chen

[WEAVERMAN]

Maybe, but which will hurt more: trying to replace Chen, or coming to grips with paying a guy with a 3.75 ERA, basically average K/BB/HR numbers, and no 200-innings seasons $20M+ a year through 2021?

He's not going to command 20+ per season, imo. He's a 4/60 guy.

[Can_of_corn]

He's not going to command 20+ per season, imo. He's a 4/60 guy.

I say that to myself, then I look at what Porcello got, and he wasn't even on the open market.

[WEAVERMAN]

I say that to myself, then I look at what Porcello got, and he wasn't even on the open market.

Boston's stupidity could cost the Orioles their best pitcher?

[DrungoHazewood]

Boston's stupidity could cost the Orioles their best pitcher?

Another way to phrase that is someone's very optimistic assumptions just might. An average free agent deal pays $7M/win now. But there will be many deals, most in the middle or high end of the market, that end up paying much more. The case I made for 5/115 isn't totally outlandish. I certainly wouldn't pay that as a GM, or advocate the O's come anywhere close to that. But you can bet that's the argument Boras will make for Chen, and someone will almost certainly go more than 4/60. 4/60 is what the Mariners paid for a 35-year-old DH who was less valuable than Chen in three of the last four seasons.

[Phantom]

I would say you were out of your mind, if it weren't for what happened with Rick Porcello. But I still think 5/$80 mm is closer to the mark.

I think he gets over, especially after that 538 article. It only takes one a@@#hole.

[webbrick2010]

Roughly an average pitcher who out-pitches his FIP because of Manny and Schoop and Joseph and the like, who understandably wants to be paid like his ERA would be the same in another context. Nope, they wouldn't sign him to a market-rate deal.

That's one perspective

or

you could say he is a fly ball pitcher who pitches to contact who has some how been successful in Camden Yards. If he was pitching in Oakland or Seattle, or a NL West Park he would be a legitimate Cy Young contender. Chen is going to get a very big contract, I would guess 5/90.

[weams]

Another way to phrase that is someone's very optimistic assumptions just might. An average free agent deal pays $7M/win now. But there will be many deals, most in the middle or high end of the market, that end up paying much more. The case I made for 5/115 isn't totally outlandish. I certainly wouldn't pay that as a GM, or advocate the O's come anywhere close to that. But you can bet that's the argument Boras will make for Chen, and someone will almost certainly go more than 4/60. 4/60 is what the Mariners paid for a 35-year-old DH who was less valuable than Chen in three of the last four seasons.

I think he gets over, especially after that 538 article. It only takes one a@@#hole.

That's one perspective

or

you could say he is a fly ball pitcher who pitches to contact who has some how been successful in Camden Yards. If he was pitching in Oakland or Seattle, or a NL West Park he would be a legitimate Cy Young contender. Chen is going to get a very big contract, I would guess 5/90.

He will get at least four years. And 60 million. My best guess.

[Woody Held]

No Wei the Orioles give a 30 year old pitcher a 4 or 5 year contract. Look for McFarland to be groomed for the rotation next year

[Phantom]

Roughly an average pitcher who out-pitches his FIP because of Manny and Schoop and Joseph and the like, who understandably wants to be paid like his ERA would be the same in another context. Nope, they wouldn't sign him to a market-rate deal.

This is just horrible analysis for a pitcher with a career 38% GB rate.

This article might help you:

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/a-baseballs-exit-velocity-is-five-parts-hitter-one-part-pitcher/

[DrungoHazewood]

This is just horrible analysis for a pitcher with a career 38% GB rate.

This article might help you:

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/a-baseballs-exit-velocity-is-five-parts-hitter-one-part-pitcher/

So, some early returns on some new data that indicate Chen's exit velocity is lower than average makes infield defense on 38% of his balls in play irrelevant? That's an interesting conclusion. Sorry, I'll try to live up to a higher standard in my background research and analysis next time.

Edit: When you read that article did you notice that they were drawing conclusions based on half a season's worth of data? Chen's ERA is beating his FIP in 2015 by far more than in any other season, yet the author says "Lacking batted ball velocity in years prior, we cannot say that his skill is consistent, but his results appear to be." Basically he's using a 1.5 run gap in the 80 innings he has data to conclude that Chen's career quarter-run gap is consistent and caused by this newfound skill. At best I think this study is a jumping off point for more research. It's sloppy to use half-season outliers to make broad conclusions.

[Aristotelian]

He may have been "roughly average" in 2012-13. He was better in 2014, and even better this year. On top of that, even "roughly average" pitchers can get paid a lot of money in MLB if they produce consistent innings, which Chen has. James Shields got 4/$75M at Age 33 with a 3.74 career ERA. Ervin Santana 4/$55M with 4.17 career ERA. Chen should get somewhere in that range, and Boras will certainly argue closer to Shields. At Age 30, career 3.70 ERA, I could see 5/$80M for Chen.

[DrungoHazewood]

He may have been "roughly average" in 2012-13. He was better in 2014, and even better this year.

The key is how much credit Chen gets for his ERA, and how much does his defense and other factors? His peripherals haven't changed much year-to-year. Yes, a roughly average 2-win pitcher gets almost $15M a year in free agency.

[DrungoHazewood]

If Scott Feldman got $10 million a year, anything is possible.

Why is it remarkable that a guy coming off a 2-win season or two would get a contract to produce about a win-and-a-half a year?

[bobmc]

Another way to phrase that is someone's very optimistic assumptions just might. An average free agent deal pays $7M/win now. But there will be many deals, most in the middle or high end of the market, that end up paying much more. The case I made for 5/115 isn't totally outlandish. I certainly wouldn't pay that as a GM, or advocate the O's come anywhere close to that. But you can bet that's the argument Boras will make for Chen, and someone will almost certainly go more than 4/60. 4/60 is what the Mariners paid for a 35-year-old DH who was less valuable than Chen in three of the last four seasons.

How does one say Arigato in Mandarin again? :scratchchinhmm:

[DrungoHazewood]

Stats don't apply to Feldman. He was abysmal.

Okay, that makes sense.