James Shields - what would it take

[Can_of_corn]

Yikes. Swing and a miss from Rany.

He certainly didn't equivocate.

[Stotle]

He certainly didn't equivocate.

Unfortunately, his failure to consider *why* Preller took the steps he did lead to a failure to elucidate.

It's more fun to be righteous, consider yourself the guy who's got it figured out, and treat the actual professional as a moron that doesn't *get it* (speaking from experience ).

[Stotle]

By all accounts he was pressured into making a lot of these moves from ownership. You want to call for their heads too?

I think the convo you want to have is probably with someone else...

[weams]

"It's as if Preller were unaware of the first rule of Rounders: 'If you can't spot the sucker in your first half-hour at the table, then you are the sucker."

I am sure he is smart and all. I am sure this was his plan. Doesn't look good for him.

[Stotle]

"It's as if Preller were unaware of the first rule of Rounders: 'If you can't spot the sucker in your first half-hour at the table, then you are the sucker."

I am sure he is smart and all. I am sure this was his plan. Doesn't look good for him.

I want to see what the Padres look like at the end of 2016. I get we live in a time where instant grades and analysis are the norm, but a lot of what goes into good org building (in my opinion) is harder to judge in six month chunks.

To put all cards on the table, I spoke with a number of folks while in San Diego last August for the PGAAC, including Preller very briefly during morning workouts (I mostly just listened to him speaking to my buddy, haha). By all accounts he completely immersed himself in the organization soaking in as much as possible about the players in house, the MLB assets, etc. He's a field rat by trade, and I know very little about the front office chops from an analytics perspective (I know he's considered bright but the standout characteristics I'm always pointed to is evaluative skills and through-the-roof work ethic).

With that as a foundation, my belief (not confirmed in any way by anyone with inside knowledge), is Preller made moves this off-season based on a belief the talent delta between the Padres and the Dodgers was such that it was unlikely they would win the division in the normal course, and the disconnect in minor league talent also made it unlikely they would "catch-up" in the normal course. I think he sold ownership on a "shoot the moon" approach to 2015 with a back-up plan of selling off assets if they fell out of the race.

If the default position for San Diego was going to be even a moderate 2-3 year restock and rebuild, Preller essentially traded "now" prospect value for a chance (albeit slim) at catching lightning in a bottle and making the playoffs. There is also the add-in benefit of bumping season ticket sales and reigniting some excitement about the club entering the year.

I really liked Ross this offseason after being very down on him 12 months earlier. I am a big Wisler fan going back to his high school days (saw him on my "test" assignment right before getting my associate scout gig). I was low on Turner, and he has been a revelation this year. Those are the big pieces that were moved. If Preller sells off Upton, Kimbrel, Maurer he could end up with a comparable collection of minor league talent. He can also move any multi-year contracts that make sense, while being comfortable there isn't any franchise killer on the books.

Maybe he took a shot and missed, but if that's the lens we want to view the actions then I think we need to at least be fair enough to look at the full picture. That was my issue with Rany's take -- it was painfully limited in scope. I know Preller not at all personally, but a couple of my good friends do and this is not a guy playing fantasy baseball willy-nilly, in over his head. He is an excellent evaluator, and I'm sure is supremely confident in his ability to build up the system long term. If he was willing to get aggressive for a year it's because he believes he'll be filling those prospect gaps with "his" guys in short order.

I'd bet on him long term, and I'd certainly do some research on him (Rany, not you weamsy) before deciding I had his M.O./skillset nailed.

[Stotle]

I was agreeing/piggybacking what you said.

Gotcha; xoxo.

[weams]

I want to see what the Padres look like at the end of 2016. I get we live in a time where instant grades and analysis are the norm, but a lot of what goes into good org building (in my opinion) is harder to judge in six month chunks.

To put all cards on the table, I spoke with a number of folks while in San Diego last August for the PGAAC, including Preller very briefly during morning workouts (I mostly just listened to him speaking to my buddy, haha). By all accounts he completely immersed himself in the organization soaking in as much as possible about the players in house, the MLB assets, etc. He's a field rat by trade, and I know very little about the front office chops from an analytics perspective (I know he's considered bright but the standout characteristics I'm always pointed to is evaluative skills and through-the-roof work ethic).

With that as a foundation, my belief (not confirmed in any way by anyone with inside knowledge), is Preller made moves this off-season based on a belief the talent delta between the Padres and the Dodgers was such that it was unlikely they would win the division in the normal course, and the disconnect in minor league talent also made it unlikely they would "catch-up" in the normal course. I think he sold ownership on a "shoot the moon" approach to 2015 with a back-up plan of selling off assets if they fell out of the race.

If the default position for San Diego was going to be even a moderate 2-3 year restock and rebuild, Preller essentially traded "now" prospect value for a chance (albeit slim) at catching lightning in a bottle and making the playoffs. There is also the add-in benefit of bumping season ticket sales and reigniting some excitement about the club entering the year.

I really liked Ross this offseason after being very down on him 12 months earlier. I am a big Wisler fan going back to his high school days (saw him on my "test" assignment right before getting my associate scout gig). I was low on Turner, and he has been a revelation this year. Those are the big pieces that were moved. If Preller sells off Upton, Kimbrel, Maurer he could end up with a comparable collection of minor league talent. He can also move any multi-year contracts that make sense, while being comfortable there isn't any franchise killer on the books.

Maybe he took a shot and missed, but if that's the lens we want to view the actions then I think we need to at least be fair enough to look at the full picture. That was my issue with Rany's take -- it was painfully limited in scope. I know Preller not at all personally, but a couple of my good friends do and this is not a guy playing fantasy baseball willy-nilly, in over his head. He is an excellent evaluator, and I'm sure is supremely confident in his ability to build up the system long term. If he was willing to get aggressive for a year it's because he believes he'll be filling those prospect gaps with "his" guys in short order.

I'd bet on him long term, and I'd certainly do some research on him (Rany, not you weamsy) before deciding I had his M.O./skillset nailed.

Good insider info there and I certainly understand why you feel the way you do. The Orioles and the Orioles front office took a lot of flak from a lot of folks and professional positions and then the media over their off-season which was not wonderful. I think it's OK that this oddball outlier approach is also question now that six months worth of data is in.

[Number5]

I want to see what the Padres look like at the end of 2016. I get we live in a time where instant grades and analysis are the norm, but a lot of what goes into good org building (in my opinion) is harder to judge in six month chunks.

To put all cards on the table, I spoke with a number of folks while in San Diego last August for the PGAAC, including Preller very briefly during morning workouts (I mostly just listened to him speaking to my buddy, haha). By all accounts he completely immersed himself in the organization soaking in as much as possible about the players in house, the MLB assets, etc. He's a field rat by trade, and I know very little about the front office chops from an analytics perspective (I know he's considered bright but the standout characteristics I'm always pointed to is evaluative skills and through-the-roof work ethic).

With that as a foundation, my belief (not confirmed in any way by anyone with inside knowledge), is Preller made moves this off-season based on a belief the talent delta between the Padres and the Dodgers was such that it was unlikely they would win the division in the normal course, and the disconnect in minor league talent also made it unlikely they would "catch-up" in the normal course. I think he sold ownership on a "shoot the moon" approach to 2015 with a back-up plan of selling off assets if they fell out of the race.

If the default position for San Diego was going to be even a moderate 2-3 year restock and rebuild, Preller essentially traded "now" prospect value for a chance (albeit slim) at catching lightning in a bottle and making the playoffs. There is also the add-in benefit of bumping season ticket sales and reigniting some excitement about the club entering the year.

I really liked Ross this offseason after being very down on him 12 months earlier. I am a big Wisler fan going back to his high school days (saw him on my "test" assignment right before getting my associate scout gig). I was low on Turner, and he has been a revelation this year. Those are the big pieces that were moved. If Preller sells off Upton, Kimbrel, Maurer he could end up with a comparable collection of minor league talent. He can also move any multi-year contracts that make sense, while being comfortable there isn't any franchise killer on the books.

Maybe he took a shot and missed, but if that's the lens we want to view the actions then I think we need to at least be fair enough to look at the full picture. That was my issue with Rany's take -- it was painfully limited in scope. I know Preller not at all personally, but a couple of my good friends do and this is not a guy playing fantasy baseball willy-nilly, in over his head. He is an excellent evaluator, and I'm sure is supremely confident in his ability to build up the system long term. If he was willing to get aggressive for a year it's because he believes he'll be filling those prospect gaps with "his" guys in short order.

I'd bet on him long term, and I'd certainly do some research on him (Rany, not you weamsy) before deciding I had his M.O./skillset nailed.

I don't know, Stotle, it is hard to see these trades getting better for the Padres with time. Seems like the reverse is more probable, frankly. It seems doubtful that SD will get back more than they gave up for these players if they sell them off now. Anything is possible, though.

[Stotle]

good insider info there and I certainly understand why you feel the way you do. The Orioles and the Orioles front office took a lot of flak from a lot of folks and professional positions and then the media over their off-season which was not wonderful. I think it's OK that this oddball outlier approach is also question now that six months worth of data is in.

You are correct, and I should have been MUCH more clear. I don't have an issue with dinging the plan -- especially since some of the trades in particular were likely not necessary and did not move the needle much for 2015 purposes. My issue is really with folks coming out with very strong statements as to Preller's philosophies and long term chops as a GM.

I know AA is a highly unpopular guy in a lot of corners, and certainly among Orioles fans, but if he were to get fired this fall then whomever takes over for him is going to step into a gold mine worth of minor league and major league assets. A number of his "big" moves were flops, but he's clearly not a stupid guy and his overhaul of the organization's approach to player evaluation and amateur acquisition seems to be a huge success.

[Stotle]

I don't know, Stotle, it is hard to see these trades getting better for the Padres with time. Seems like the reverse is more probable, frankly. It seems doubtful that SD will get back more than they gave up for these players if they sell them off now. Anything is possible, though.

I don't think it is a strategy remotely likely to leave San Diego stronger. I think it was giving up longer-term assets for a quick shot a miracle 2015 (boosting fan interest, maybe some extra jingle in the pocket from advertisers and season ticket purchasers this offseason), with an understanding that it might push the team backwards an extra 6-18 months in the full restructuring efforts (depending on how the other moves end-up working out).

It's going to take savvy moves, no question. But I'd like to at least see him implement the plan before I declare him a failure. I'm curious to see how he handles the trade deadline and what sort of roster he has entering the off-season. He could move a bunch of players and end-up with a fair amount of financial flexibility or he could fail to move players and end-up with like $85-95 MM on the books and a whole lot of talent gap to try and cover. Will be interesting.

[weams]

I don't think it is a strategy remotely likely to leave San Diego stronger. I think it was giving up longer-term assets for a quick shot a miracle 2015 (boosting fan interest, maybe some extra jingle in the pocket from advertisers and season ticket purchasers this offseason), with an understanding that it might push the team backwards an extra 6-18 months in the full restructuring efforts (depending on how the other moves end-up working out).

It's going to take savvy moves, no question. But I'd like to at least see him implement the plan before I declare him a failure. I'm curious to see how he handles the trade deadline and what sort of roster he has entering the off-season. He could move a bunch of players and end-up with a fair amount of financial flexibility or he could fail to move players and end-up with like $85-95 MM on the books and a whole lot of talent gap to try and cover. Will be interesting.

I think he took a shot to be the new wunderkind. It did not work. Too bad really.

[Stotle]

I think he took a shot to be the new wunderkind. It did not work. Too bad really.

That could be. I wouldn't say anyone has much to go off of as far as his overarching philosophies as a GM unless they are speaking with him or have a working relationship. He has worked exactly one off-season and has yet to see a trade deadline. He hasn't passed his first draft signing deadline as a GM.

[25 Nuggets]

Whatever happens to the Padres moving forward, I feel bad for Bud Black. One of the longest tenured managers in baseball, run out of town by a hot-shot GM who made a lot of questionable decisions. Not that Black had much success... only two winning seasons... but the Padres are 32-33 under Black this year, and 9-16 after him.

I don't get them putting Shields on the market. They must be scared of their own contract, bumping up to $21 mil next year. But they should not be absorbing bad salary for nothing just to save some. They aren't big enough spenders.