Quietly, is Chen having the best season of any Orioles starting pitcher since Erik Bedard?

[Frobby]

It's a rhetorical question. If Chen can keep it up in the second half, the answer is yes.

Bedard 2007: 3.16 ERA, 146 ERA+, 1.09 WHIP, 6.50 IP/start

Chen 2015: 2.78 ERA, 139 ERA+, 1.09 WHIP, 6.47 IP/start

Now if the team would just give him a little support.

(Folds arms, taps his foot, waits for someone to bring up FIP....)

[DrungoHazewood]

Well... if I'm not allowed to bring up FIP, then, sure, why not? The O's haven't had many excellent pitching seasons by a starter since Bedard left. So maybe Chen can wrest the title of "best since Bedard if you give him much of the credit for defense" from somebody like Tillman or Matusz or whomever. By RA9-WAR, or I'm guessing rWAR, he's already at 2.7 wins.

[DrungoHazewood]

Oh, and it won't be so quiet when Boras starts talking about Chen's newly established level of roughly five wins. At $7M per win, inflated at 5% per annum... anyone could see that a fair valuation of Chen on the open market should be about 5/193. Okay... even Boras probably doesn't have the stones to ask for 5/193 for Wei-Yin Chen.

[skanar]

Well... if I'm not allowed to bring up FIP, then, sure, why not? The O's haven't had many excellent pitching seasons by a starter since Bedard left. So maybe Chen can wrest the title of "best since Bedard if you give him much of the credit for defense" from somebody like Tillman or Matusz or whomever. By RA9-WAR, or I'm guessing rWAR, he's already at 2.7 wins.

rWAR is significantly lower, at 1.9. Perhaps because of the team defense correction that bb-ref uses? Regardless, it's been an excellent half-season.

[Frobby]

What has impressed me most is Chen's new-found ability to maintain his stuff late in games. It used to be that he would cruise along through 5 IP, then begin to labor. This year, he has done some of his best pitching late in games. He has an 0.68 ERA from the 6th inning on.

[weams]

What has impressed me most is Chen's new-found ability to maintain his stuff late in games. It used to be that he would cruise along through 5 IP, then begin to labor. This year, he has done some of his best pitching late in games. He has an 0.68 ERA from the 6th inning on.

He has been stronger. Yes.

[weams]

It's a rhetorical question. If Chen can keep it up in the second half, the answer is yes.

Bedard 2007: 3.16 ERA, 146 ERA+, 1.09 WHIP, 6.50 IP/start

Chen 2015: 2.78 ERA, 139 ERA+, 1.09 WHIP, 6.47 IP/start

Now if the team would just give him a little support.

(Folds arms, taps his foot, waits for someone to bring up FIP....)

The difference in average ERA for the two eras would be strikingly different if you compared.

[weams]

The difference in average ERA for the two eras would be strikingly different if you compared.

Season ERA WHIP K/9 BB/9 HR/9

1 2006 4.73 1.42 6.07 2.94 1.18

2 2007 4.61 1.41 6.30 3.01 1.07

Average AL Starter

[weams]

Season ERA WHIP K/9 BB/9 HR/9

1 2006 4.73 1.42 6.07 2.94 1.18

2 2007 4.61 1.41 6.30 3.01 1.07

Average AL Starter

2015 Average AL Starter

Season ERA WHIP K/9 BB/9 HR/9

1 2015 4.02 1.28 7.19 2.64 1.00

[weams]

2015 Both Leagues

Season ERA WHIP K/9 BB/9 HR/9

1 2015 3.97 1.28 7.28 2.64 1.01

[Phantom]

It's a rhetorical question. If Chen can keep it up in the second half, the answer is yes.

Bedard 2007: 3.16 ERA, 146 ERA+, 1.09 WHIP, 6.50 IP/start

Chen 2015: 2.78 ERA, 139 ERA+, 1.09 WHIP, 6.47 IP/start

Now if the team would just give him a little support.

(Folds arms, taps his foot, waits for someone to bring up FIP....)

Rhetorical questions probably aren't the best subjects for posts on message boards...

Also, knowing what we know about what stats are team stats (and luck) and what stats pitchers have control over, Chen isn't even having a better year than 2014 Chen.

[weams]

Both Leagues

Season ERA WHIP K/9 BB/9 HR/9

1 2006 4.69 1.41 6.21 3.09 1.17

2 2007 4.63 1.41 6.30 3.11 1.10

[weams]

ERA G GS GF CG SHO SV IP H R ER HR BB IBB SO HBP BK WP BF ERA+ FIP WHIP H9 HR9 BB9 SO9

2.81 17 17 0 0 0 0 99.1 94 34 31 8 32 0 98 3 0 4 418 138 3.21 1.268 8.5 0.7 2.9 8.9

Ubaldo FIP 3.21

[Frobby]

The difference in average ERA for the two eras would be strikingly different if you compared.

Yes, that is why I included ERA+, to take that into account.

[Frobby]

ERA G GS GF CG SHO SV IP H R ER HR BB IBB SO HBP BK WP BF ERA+ FIP WHIP H9 HR9 BB9 SO9

2.81 17 17 0 0 0 0 99.1 94 34 31 8 32 0 98 3 0 4 418 138 3.21 1.268 8.5 0.7 2.9 8.9

Ubaldo FIP 3.21

The reason I prefer Chen is that he gets deeper into games.

Less than 5 IP: Ubaldo 3, Chen 2

5-5.2 IP: Ubaldo 5, Chen 2

6-6.2 IP: Ubaldo 2, Chen 4

7-7.2 IP, Ubaldo 6, Chen 5

8 IP: Ubaldo 1, Chen 4

Admittedly, Ubaldo had that one game where he was ejected in the 4th inning, and he had two other games vs. the NL where Buck yanked him early for a pinch hitter (though he was struggling in both those games, allowing 3 ER in 4 IP each time with pitch counts in the 85-87 range). So, his IP numbers could look a bit better. I still put a lot of value on Chen getting deep into more games than Ubaldo.