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Two additions I could deal with...


TCAlumni9700

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First, I haven't posted here in forever. It's good to be back. I plan to be more active.

Second, this is just me throwing around ideas, and it is two guys that have been reported to be available, so I want to get everyone's thoughts.

Blackmon and Leake.

I know they wouldn't exactly be cheap, but my thinking is that Charlie would be a good addition for the OF, plus he could be put at the top of the order to move Manny to the 3 hole (which is where I believe he should be). As far as Leake goes, he'd be a cheaper, although less effective, version of Cueto, plus he's without a doubt an upgrade over Norris and Gonzo.

Thoughts on whether they'd be good additions? What do you think it would take to land one, or both? I think they're reasonable targets for us.

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Blackmon is going to cost an arm and a leg. He's cheap, controlled through 2018.

But here's the kicker with him...and I guess a negotiating point (but why would you want one):

HOME: .331/.383/.492 - .876 OPS

AWAY: .246/.286/.379 - .665 OPS

Career numbers.

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Blackmon is going to cost an arm and a leg. He's cheap, controlled through 2018.

But here's the kicker with him...and I guess a negotiating point (but why would you want one):

HOME: .331/.383/.492 - .876 OPS

AWAY: .246/.286/.379 - .665 OPS

Career numbers.

This is an argument I've seen brought up more than a few times when people have proposed getting certain guys, especially Colorado guys or guys who hit in weird stadiums (like Fenway Park and its Fisher Price My First Outfield Fence).

I'd like to bring Manny Machado into this conversation just for some comparison and context. He's our best player and his pulled home runs go to left, which is a regular fence at OPACY, and not the porch, which is a vertically tall/horizontally short fence (and maybe those fences have weird effects on certain guys' home run rates).

Manny Machado, career:

Home: .285/.332/.492 - .824 OPS

Away: .280/.317/.419 - .736 OPS

Obviously Blackmon's splits are more severe. Machado has a demonstrable decrease in offense going away from OPACY. Most interestingly, his ISO goes from .207 at home to .139 on the road. That's where the substantial drop in his OPS occurs. He's hitting at a nearly identical clip but with much less power.

For Blackmon, he has a home ISO of .161 and a road ISO of .133. And I think you'd sort of assume, before looking at the numbers, that the power is what suffers for these Coors hitters; and yet the drop in his OPS is more OBP driven (lower walk rate and lower average). Machado's power suffers on the road more than Blackmon's does.

By the way, just looking at Manny's 2015 shows a pattern totally in line with his career: an OPS split driven entirely by ISO differences.

I'm not as much trying to draw a conclusion as ask a question. What do home/road splits really mean about a player and what predictions can you make about how they would handle a new team? Since most teams are better at home than on the road, ergo it's likely their hitters are better at home than on the road, you're likely to find similar splits for lots of guys.

I'd also like to know if there's a neat stat for assessing how home-happy someone is. It'd have to take into account park factors, since the guy hitting in Petco might look like he's a better road hitter, but you could look at his OPS+ relative to 100 for the average Petco Park hitter.

I know this is a big rant for a simple trade idea but this is a topic of interest to me.

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With the farm system as shallow as it is, I don't want Duquette to make any trades to thin it out even more. Plus this year's free agent class is the deepest class in many years and the Orioles have a lot of money coming off the books. If there is one year to splurge on free agency, this is it.

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With the farm system as shallow as it is, I don't want Duquette to make any trades to thin it out even more. Plus this year's free agent class is the deepest class in many years and the Orioles have a lot of money coming off the books. If there is one year to splurge on free agency, this is it.

But when do we ever splurge on anything? I'd love to say, "yeah, with all this money coming off the books, we got a real shot at landing Price," but we both know that won't happen. They won't even make him an offer.

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First, I haven't posted here in forever. It's good to be back. I plan to be more active.

Second, this is just me throwing around ideas, and it is two guys that have been reported to be available, so I want to get everyone's thoughts.

Blackmon and Leake.

I know they wouldn't exactly be cheap, but my thinking is that Charlie would be a good addition for the OF, plus he could be put at the top of the order to move Manny to the 3 hole (which is where I believe he should be). As far as Leake goes, he'd be a cheaper, although less effective, version of Cueto, plus he's without a doubt an upgrade over Norris and Gonzo.

Thoughts on whether they'd be good additions? What do you think it would take to land one, or both? I think they're reasonable targets for us.

I'd dump Norris and Nolan and bring someone from AAA.

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I know a lot of us want to move Manny' date=' but since he has been so good leading off should we move him? Or would Buck move him?[/quote']

The stats guys say batting order and "protection" mean nothing. You could put nine names in a hat and make a lineup by random chance. Makes no difference. The ONLY thing it affects... the 1, 2 an 3 hole hitters get the most ABs. So if Manny is our best hitter, lead him off to get him the most ABs. If it ain't broke don't fix it.

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