Jump to content

Manny Should Be Batting 3rd


Camden_yardbird

Recommended Posts

16 of his 20 home runs are solo homers simply because the bottom of the order players are not getting on base for him. This team is wasting his power by batting him lead off. I know his stolen bases would probably drop off a little, but I would take RBI over stolen bases any day.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Replies 235
  • Created
  • Last Reply
Good point. Nice analysis.

I could link to the dozens of times I have talked about this in the past if you would like.

I could post a link to The Book.

Oh wait I can go the easy way and just link to an article then quote the part about hitting third.

http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2009/3/17/795946/optimizing-your-lineup-by

The Third Spot

The old-school book says to put your best high-average hitter here. The lead-off hitter should already be in scoring position and a hit drives him in. Wham, bam, thank you ma'am.

The Book says the #3 hitter comes to the plate with, on average, fewer runners on base than the #4 or #5 hitters. So why focus on putting a guy who can knock in runs in the #3 spot, when the two spots after him can benefit from it more? Surprisingly, because he comes to bat so often with two outs and no runners on base, the #3 hitter isn't nearly as important as we think. This is a spot to fill after more important spots are taken care of.

Another way to look at things is to order the batting slots by the leveraged value of the out. In plain English (sort of), we want to know how costly making an out is by each lineup position, based on the base-out situations they most often find themselves in, and then weighted by how often each lineup spot comes to the plate. Here's how the lineup spots rank in the importance of avoiding outs:

#1, #4, #2, #5, #3, #6, #7, #8, #9

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I could link to the dozens of times I have talked about this in the past if you would like.

I could post a link to The Book.

Oh wait I can go the easy way and just link to an article then quote the part about hitting third.

http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2009/3/17/795946/optimizing-your-lineup-by

Guys who bat 4th or 5th have more opportunities to drive guys in than the number 3 hitter. That couldn't possibly be because teams tend to bat their best hitter third and they are more prone to get themselves in scoring position. When teams start batting their fifth best hitter third, the opportunities for the 4th and 5th hitters couldn't possibly decrease, could it?

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Ideally I'd put him second. I'm not sold on him consistently being a 30+ HR guy.

I don't see Manny being a consistent 30+ HR guy either. But I can definitely see him averaging around 25 HRs with a line of .290/.370/.550 at his peak. Those numbers will be more than good enough for a #3 hitter.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I don't see Manny being a consistent 30+ HR guy either. But I can definitely see him averaging around 25 HRs with a line of .290/.370/.550 at his peak. Those numbers will be more than good enough for a #3 hitter.

The problem is, they are also good enough for him to bat first, second, fourth or fifth.

He's wasted at third.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guys who bat 4th or 5th have more opportunities to drive guys in than the number 3 hitter. That couldn't possibly be because teams tend to bat their best hitter third and they are more prone to get themselves in scoring position. When teams start batting their fifth best hitter third, the opportunities for the 4th and 5th hitters couldn't possibly decrease, could it?

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

You really think the difference in OBP of the "best hitter hitting third" is enough to skew the numbers?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

You really think the difference in OBP of the "best hitter hitting third" is enough to skew the numbers?

Not just OBP, but ability to knock the leadoff or second guy from 1st to 3rd with less than two outs, ability to produce extra base hits. Yes, that would create more opportunities for the 4th and 5th hitters.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I could link to the dozens of times I have talked about this in the past if you would like.

I could post a link to The Book.

Oh wait I can go the easy way and just link to an article then quote the part about hitting third.

http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2009/3/17/795946/optimizing-your-lineup-by

The data seems to indicate otherwise:

www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/5024

#1 hitters drove in close to 9% of their team's runs while #3 hitters were around 15% and #5 guys were close to 13%.
RBI

3 14048

4 14588

1 8904

2 10262

5 12774

6 11250

7 10360

source:http://rotoexperts.com/91058/fantasy-baseball-ranks-position-batting-order-impact/

Data seems to indicate that batting third does matter as far as driving in runs.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.




  • Posts

    • Nobody really benefits from canceling games like this if they're able to be played. Some fans want to go, the team makes some $ off attendance, and there are players trying to make their mark. 
    • I would be shocked if all of the players in the opening post are with the team at the end of 23. 
    • Yep.   I'll be pleasantly surprised if he makes the OD roster.    Verducci Effect or not, the benefit for the Club if it can acquire control of his 2029 is large.     Grayson Rodriguez's 2022 platform has not been enough for Mike Elias to plan to pitch him 26 weeks or 33 starts in MLB in 2023.     The rest is just a question of asset management. Pittsburgh Roansy Contreras is a talented young pitcher maybe close to Grayson's ballpark, has been the 100-loss Pirates second best starter this year by ERA+, and was optioned back to AAA yesterday like he was Nick Vespi or something.   There's a chicken-egg game with SP's building up to take the full Jordan Lyles complement, and Clubs "protecting their best interests" by looking out for them.   And then, the meta-game where the MATH doesn't make sense for anyone except maybe 10 guys per league to take the full Jordan Lyles complement. It isn't that Grayson Rodriguez isn't as awesome as Gunnar Henderson...he just isn't ramped up enough.   And competitively, you aren't maximizing the roster well enough on a daily basis if "tired Grayson Rodriguez" gets one of your 13 precious spots that day. In terms of what the 2023 Orioles will be, I hope they use him straight out of the gate, and start tinkering with load management if being the 6th best or better team in the league looks likely after a few months.   But I don't think that's what will happen.     The Mariners Logan Gilbert and George Kirby cases this year are decent analogs, and curious to see what they have left for this month.
    • Yes, at 3B/SS/2B.  860 OPS at 1B could be 750 at the big league level, which gets you Mountcastle.  With plus defense across other IF positions, that's positive WAR.
    • I am glad we don't have to choose at least not now anyway.  I would also go with Adley for the intangibles.
    • This probably means we get a grand finale of the Aguilar and Odor Show in game 2. 
    • Why are they even playing these games, everything is set for the playoffs. I would hate to see somebody pick-up a significant injury in a meaningless game. 
  • Popular Contributors

×
×
  • Create New...