ZIPS predicts that Machado will be the 2nd best player over the next 5 years

[Redskins Rick]

All of the observed outcomes from 1968 could be replicated with dramatically lower talent levels. Just look at minor league numbers. There are current minor leagues with players who are in no way ready to play in the majors where pitchers dominate. A few years ago in Japan the league ERA was lower than it was in 1968 and many pitchers had tremendous-looking performances; that doesn't suggest the 2011 Japanese League had talent on par with the Majors. Again, offensive contexts only correspond to talent levels coincidentally.

Not sure, I buy into this.

Looking back over the list of 1968 Ball players, and the talent level wasn't that much reduced.

Again just my opinion, it was a fun year to watch ball, that is, if you like low scoring quick games.

[Number5]

Ted Williams - and many others - attributed the advent of the slider to the rise in pitching and the decrease in hitting in the late 1950's and the 1960's. It is the primary reason, according to Williams, that we are very unlikely to see a .400 hitter again. I think the still-prevalent use of doctoring the baseball also had an effect at that time.

[DrungoHazewood]

Ted Williams - and many others - attributed the advent of the slider to the rise in pitching and the decrease in hitting in the late 1950's and the 1960's. It is the primary reason, according to Williams, that we are very unlikely to see a .400 hitter again. I think the still-prevalent use of doctoring the baseball also had an effect at that time.

The primary reason that we don't see as many extreme performances like .400 hitters is the increase in the quality of play. If you quickly expanded to 60 teams you'd see .400 hitters, sliders and all.

[Frobby]

I was shocked at Yaz won the batting title with the robust average of .301

It wasn't just a handful of pitchers that year, starting pitching (stats wise) was strong, even for last place teams.

Later expansions, added more ball players and thinned out the quality for a bit, again, just my opinion.

There was a long period of September when nobody was batting .300, if I recall. Yaz was at .285 at the end of August and didn't cross .300 for good until Sept. 14. Danny Cater, who finished second at .290, was never at .300 at any point. Tony Oliva, who finished 3rd at .289, was injured at the end of August. His .289 may have been leading the league on the day he got hurt. That's how bad it was.

I don't know why 1968 was such an outlier compared to the years immediately preceding it. In 1963, the strike zone was changed to be defined from the top of the shoulders to the knees. So, the whole period of 1963-68 was very favorable to the pitchers. But run scoring dropped from 3.77 in 1967 to 3.42 in 1968, and I really don't know why. There were 7 pitchers with ERAs under 2.00 that year (including Gibson at 1.12 and Tiant at 1.60).

In any event, I am glad that MLB lowered the mound and shrunk the strike zone after that. There are only so many pitcher's duels you can watch.

[Can_of_corn]

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/machado-joins-harper-and-trout-at-the-awesome-party/

Essentially this season, the second-place Orioles are Manny Machado and a bunch of .500-ish players or worse. That’s how good Manny Machado has been in 2015.

Last season Machado was just above a two-win player, a nice player to have but nothing close to the championship level he’s at now. Projected by ZIPS and Steamer to be worth about two-and-a-half wins this season, Machado has already slammed through that barrier

Those projections must have projected him to miss significant time.

Mostly, Machado has refined his approach at the plate and is demonstrating the skills to back up that refinement. In other words, it’s fine to recognize a hittable pitch, but it’s another to hit that pitch well enough to do significant damage. In previous seasons you could get him out by enticing him to chase pitches outside the zone. But even if he got his pitch he wasn’t anywhere near as adept at hitting it. Now he is both more skilled at waiting for his pitch and at hitting it when it arrives.

We may have another Willie Mays, Mickey Mantle, or Duke Snider situation on our hands. Choose sides, baseball internet. This should be some fun.

[Number5]

The primary reason that we don't see as many extreme performances like .400 hitters is the increase in the quality of play. If you quickly expanded to 60 teams you'd see .400 hitters, sliders and all.

There were 16 teams in 1960.

[DrungoHazewood]

There were 16 teams in 1960.

Yes, there were.

[weams]

Ted Williams - and many others - attributed the advent of the slider to the rise in pitching and the decrease in hitting in the late 1950's and the 1960's. It is the primary reason, according to Williams, that we are very unlikely to see a .400 hitter again. I think the still-prevalent use of doctoring the baseball also had an effect at that time.

Williams said the slider was the best pitch around.

[ledzepp8]

LOL, nope, not everybody

1968 was the best pitching year ever, hands down.

So strong, that MLB knocked the mound down in height by 5 inches.

Best pitching RESULTS ever? Probably. That doesn't automatically equate to the pitchers of that era being the best pitchers ever. MLB changed things that they felt made it too easy of a pitching environment...that's the point.

[Hallas]

I think the comment about the O's being Machado and a bunch of average-or-worse players is a bit rich given that Jones is on pace for another 5+ WAR season.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/machado-joins-harper-and-trout-at-the-awesome-party/

Those projections must have projected him to miss significant time.

[JLee2027]

Mantle had more than half of his at bats in the 50's, when the pitching was nothing outstanding. By the time the mid-to-late 60's came along, when pitchers really dominated, Mantle was relatively washed up (1.011 OPS through 1964, .836 OPS 1965-68). As you pointed out, he didn't take good care of himself, and that caught up to him eventually.

I don't mean to belittle the guy. I am not quite old enough to have seen Mantle play in his prime (my first year paying attention to baseball was 1966). Obviously, he was a great, great player. It is quite a compliment when I say Trout could be better. We can argue about it ten years from now.

I was six years old when Dad took me to my first game. Mickey Mantle hit a home run. It was the Yankees Home Opener April, 1963. Years later I looked up the box score to confirm what I remembered and the date. Yes, he did homer. It was against the Orioles!

[Can_of_corn]

I think the comment about the O's being Machado and a bunch of average-or-worse players is a bit rich given that Jones is on pace for another 5+ WAR season.

And who is after Jones? (Davis 1.5 fWAR)

I could see rather then disrupting the flow of the piece he would neglect Jones, as it really doesn't change the narrative.

[AlbionHero]

I think the comment about the O's being Machado and a bunch of average-or-worse players is a bit rich given that Jones is on pace for another 5+ WAR season.

More like 4, but really there isn't another significant player on the team this year in WAR. Davis might end up 2.5 WAR. Paredas might end up 1.5-2 WAR. But those are our offensive leaders there.

[Hallas]

And who is after Jones? (Davis 1.5 fWAR)

I could see rather then disrupting the flow of the piece he would neglect Jones, as it really doesn't change the narrative.

Our next best player is Ubaldo, at 1.9 WAR. Even at 1.5 WAR he is still above average.

If we're counting only position players, sure, but there are other successful teams that are getting less out their 3rd best position player. (Twins, Nationals)

[TonySoprano]

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Manny Machado leads <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Orioles?src=hash">#Orioles</a> in hits, HR & steals. No O's player has done so since team moved to Baltimore in 1954.

<a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Yankees?src=hash">#Yankees</a>—7 pm ET, <a href="https://twitter.com/espn">@ESPN</a></p>— Elias Sports Bureau (@EliasSports) <a href="

">July 22, 2015</a></blockquote>

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