I'm So Sick of the Buy/Sell Argument

[SteveA]

Each of the past three seasons, in June and July, there have been LOTS of voices on this site saying this team was not a playoff team and they should be sellers at the deadline.

Two out of three of those years, they were wrong.

In 2012, Tony Pente, a level headed and knowledgeable observer of the Orioles, said in June/July that the Orioles were not a playoff team and should punt for the future. (I only bring him up specifically to show that the people who have said we didn't have a chance in previous years are not some small subset of negative thinking folks, but often included some of our most knowledgeable and respected posters)

Bottom line to me is, if you are in it, you don't, in general, punt. And right now I feel we are still in it. Does that mean we go all out for this year, or ignore a ridiculously high offer for Davis or Wieters or Chen? No. Nothing is binary, as Drungo said. We are not required to register as a Buyer or Seller and only make one type of deal or the other.

But too many things happen down the line to completely throw away a season where you have a legitimate shot at the playoffs, IMO.

[brianod]

Each of the past three seasons, in June and July, there have been LOTS of voices on this site saying this team was not a playoff team and they should be sellers at the deadline.

Two out of three of those years, they were wrong.

In 2012, Tony Pente, a level headed and knowledgeable observer of the Orioles, said in June/July that the Orioles were not a playoff team and should punt for the future. (I only bring him up specifically to show that the people who have said we didn't have a chance in previous years are not some small subset of negative thinking folks, but often included some of our most knowledgeable and respected posters)

Bottom line to me is, if you are in it, you don't, in general, punt. And right now I feel we are still in it. Does that mean we go all out for this year, or ignore a ridiculously high offer for Davis or Wieters or Chen? No. Nothing is binary, as Drungo said. We are not required to register as a Buyer or Seller and only make one type of deal or the other.

But too many things happen down the line to completely throw away a season where you have a legitimate shot at the playoffs, IMO.

Thank you, you stated my point much more eloquently than I did.

[Camden_yardbird]

Talent is less important than luck when you reach the playoffs...

You can't believe this?

[brianod]

You can't believe this?

Luck is the residue of design. Talent and luck win. If the equation is close, luck can win out but I'd take talent over luck any time.

[HokieOs]

You can't believe this?

Why not? In a 5 or 7 game series, anything can happen. On any given night, the best teams in baseball have a 35-40% chance of losing. And that's not even taking into account the quality of the opponent. Against the worst teams, the odds are a little bit better. But against better teams the odds are even closer to 50/50. Over just 7 games, all you need as the inferior team is a little luck.

In 7 games, Houston is 2-5 against Cleveland this season. Cincinnati has played 5 games against Washington this year and would have already won all the games they need to win a best of 9 (ie, they'er 5-0 against the Nats). In a best of 5, the Twins will have already beaten us (thanks to a three game sweep).

And frankly, even looking at other series this year, the vast majority of them are very even. Talent gets you into the playoffs. Once you're there, who the heck knows.

[brianod]

Why not? In a 5 or 7 game series, anything can happen. On any given night, the best teams in baseball have a 35-40% chance of losing. And that's not even taking into account the quality of the opponent. Against the worst teams, the odds are a little bit better. But against better teams the odds are even closer to 50/50. Over just 7 games, all you need as the inferior team is a little luck.

In 7 games, Houston is 2-5 against Cleveland this season. Cincinnati has played 5 games against Washington this year and would have already won all the games they need to win a best of 9 (ie, they'er 5-0 against the Nats). In a best of 5, the Twins will have already beaten us (thanks to a three game sweep).

And frankly, even looking at other series this year, the vast majority of them are very even. Talent gets you into the playoffs. Once you're there, who the heck knows.

Extended over a 7 game series, 35-40% chance of winning requires a lot of luck.

[HokieOs]

Extended over a 7 game series, 35-40% chance of winning requires a lot of luck.

Not as much as you might think. The underdog doesn't have to win every game don't forget. They only have to win ANY four of those games. The mathematical odds of a 60/40 underdog winning happen to be 28.98%.

And when you're in the playoffs,the odds are usually closer than that.

[brianod]

Not as much as you might think. The underdog doesn't have to win every game don't forget. They only have to win ANY four of those games. The mathematical odds of a 60/40 underdog winning happen to be 28.98%.

And when you're in the playoffs,the odds are usually closer than that.

The overall point is that underdog teams in baseball have a good chance of winning given a break or two. Very true. But, the 7 game series mitigates that. Do less talented teams win a lot? Sure. But, is it a 50/50 crapshoot? Of course not.

[weams]

You can't believe this?

Most people believe this.

[HokieOs]

The overall point is that underdog teams in baseball have a good chance of winning given a break or two. Very true. But, the 7 game series mitigates that. Do less talented teams win a lot? Sure. But, is it a 50/50 crapshoot? Of course not.

I'm not implying it's simply a 50/50 crapshoot. But even in 60/40 situation, the 7 game series only reduces the inferior team's chances by approximately 11%. Come playoff time, the teams are usually more closely matched than even 60/40.

For what it's worth, in a 5 game series, the mathematical odds of a 60/40 underdog winning are about 31.74%. And again, a true 60/40 favorite in the baseball playoffs is rare.

[weams]

I'm not implying it's simply a 50/50 crapshoot. But even in 60/40 situation, the 7 game series only reduces the inferior team's chances by approximately 11%. Come playoff time, the teams are usually more closely matched than even 60/40.

For what it's worth, in a 5 game series, the mathematical odds of a 60/40 underdog winning are about 31.74%. And again, a true 60/40 favorite in the baseball playoffs is rare.

Weather. Nails. Baby births. Poor night's sleep. Drink too much. Noise in the next room. Family ticket hassles.

[brianod]

Weather. Nails. Baby births. Poor night's sleep. Drink too much. Noise in the next room. Family ticket hassles.

happen to both teams:) My supposition is that over time, if one team has a 57% chance of winning based on talent, that team would win 57% of the time.

[BohKnowsBmore]

I'm tired of all these folks jumping up and yelling sell after every loss. What kind of fans are these who seem to be itching to give up on the season.

Sent from my XT1049 using Tapatalk

I've said it before, in more lengthy terms, but I feel like it is uncomfortable for some to be in the hunt. There wasn't as much stress game-to-game when we were perennial doormats. Also, selling pieces from our trash team for future help was a clear win. It's a tough call to sell good, young prospects potentially for an uncertain shot at the title this season.

[DrungoHazewood]

You can't believe this?

In the playoffs you're usually have something like a .575 team matched up against a .565 team. In rare cases you'll have something as extreme as a .530 team matched up with a .620 team. For all intents and purposes talent is equal, far more equal than in most regular season matchups. Talent is so close that it's almost always debatable which team has the most talent in a playoff series. Who wins comes down to injuries and matchups and slumps and how the ball bounces. Not to mention that if you run the math the team with the best record in baseball, on Day 1 of the playoffs, usually has less than a 25% chance of winning it all.

[DrungoHazewood]

I've said it before, in more lengthy terms, but I feel like it is uncomfortable for some to be in the hunt.

There are always back-benchers who really get into their groove when there is turmoil, reveling at lobbing rhetorical bombs at the idiots in charge. "If only they'd do these four simple, obvious things everything would be better, but nobody listens to me, they love losing!"