Our Supplemental Picks

[Rich Mac]

I have been arguing that we should try and sell at the deadline instead of holding firm with our FAs. My argument has been that we can do better getting prospects than accruing 3 or 4 supplemental picks in the draft. I replied to Scott in another thread this morning about our past track record with supplemental picks and realized that I really don't the facts.

I tried looking it up and the only source I found was from wikipedia

Here

Yep - not always the most reliable of sources.

So I went back 20 years and found this to be the list of First Round Supplemental picks that we have had:

Ntema Ndungdi - 1997

Mamon Tucker - 1998

Joshua Cenate - 1999

Scott Rice - 1999

Brian Roberts - 1999

Tripper Johnson - 2000

Bryan Bass - 2001

Garrett Olson - 2005

Pedro Beato - 2006

Is this the complete list of supplemental first-rounders in that time frame? I hate relying on wikipedia and I know some of you guys know exactly where to look for this info.

If it is a complete list - I am even more concerned about our ability to replace our departing FAs through the QO process. This does not seem like a very reliable way to acquire talent. Perhaps other teams have had better luck, but we aren't doing it right.

[El Gordo]

I have been arguing that we should try and sell at the deadline instead of holding firm with our FAs. My argument has been that we can do better getting prospects than accruing 3 or 4 supplemental picks in the draft. I replied to Scott in another thread this morning about our past track record with supplemental picks and realized that I really don't the facts.

I tried looking it up and the only source I found was from wikipedia

Here

Yep - not always the most reliable of sources.

So I went back 20 years and found this to be the list of First Round Supplemental picks that we have had:

Ntema Ndungdi - 1997

Mamon Tucker - 1998

Joshua Cenate - 1999

Scott Rice - 1999

Brian Roberts - 1999

Tripper Johnson - 2000

Bryan Bass - 2001

Garrett Olson - 2005

Pedro Beato - 2006

Is this the complete list of supplemental first-rounders in that time frame? I hate relying on wikipedia and I know some of you guys know exactly where to look for this info.

If it is a complete list - I am even more concerned about our ability to replace our departing FAs through the QO process. This does not seem like a very reliable way to acquire talent. Perhaps other teams have had better luck, but we aren't doing it right.

Do you think the current organization is the same as it was in 2006, and that the laundry does the drafting?

[EagleOriole]

A more effective method would be to look at the supplemental picks for the past 6-7 years (of all teams) and see how they are doing.

[Bahama O's Fan]

Do you trust Dan to make picks more than our other GM's?

[EagleOriole]

Do you trust Dan to make picks more than our other GM's?

Since Dan doesn't make the picks, Gary Rajsich does, I would say yes.

[mcgraw238]

Do you think the current organization is the same as it was in 2006, and that the laundry does the drafting?

It's a fair point your making, though they appear to draft about the same.

[backwardsk]

A more effective method would be to look at the supplemental picks for the past 6-7 years (of all teams) and see how they are doing.

There are a few nuggets there: Lynn, Odorizzi, Garrett Richards, Boxberger, castellanos (sp? -Det 3B)

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[Rich Mac]

Do you think the current organization is the same as it was in 2006, and that the laundry does the drafting?

If you want to define "current organization" as the one headed by DD, then we can evaluate his former GM stints and their supplemental picks:

Montreal:

Josue Estrada - 1993

Mike Thurman - 1994

Boston:

Chris Reitsma - 1996

Mark Fischer - 1997

Brad Baker - 1999

Casey Fossum - 1999

That's six supplemental picks and 2 pitchers that had any significant playing time in the MLB. Reitsma was a serviceable reliever.

[EagleOriole]

It's a fair point your making, though they appear to draft about the same.

Bull - from 1997-2006 the Orioles had 24 first round picks including supplemental picks - of those picks 12 players made the majors - of those 12, 5 had negative WARs. 3 of the 24 were productive ML players (Werth, Roberts, Markakis). There have been 10 players picked from 2007-2015, 5 have made the majors so far - all five have positive WARs. Of the 10 this includes Stewart, Mountcastle, Hart, and Harvey). Of the ten, 2 have been all-stars (Machado, Weiters). Matusz has been a productive ML reliever (though a disappointment) overall. Gausman is ML caliber whose development has been completely screwed.

We are much better at drafting now.

[EagleOriole]

If you want to define "current organization" as the one headed by DD, then we can evaluate his former GM stints and their supplemental picks:

Montreal:

Josue Estrada - 1993

Mike Thurman - 1994

Boston:

Chris Reitsma - 1996

Mark Fischer - 1997

Brad Baker - 1999

Casey Fossum - 1999

That's six supplemental picks and 2 pitchers that had any significant playing time in the MLB. Reitsma was a serviceable reliever.

DD doesn't choose the players when he is the general manager.

[Crazysilver03]

Bull - from 1997-2006 the Orioles had 24 first round picks including supplemental picks - of those picks 12 players made the majors - of those 12, 5 had negative WARs. 3 of the 24 were productive ML players (Werth, Roberts, Markakis). There have been 10 players picked from 2007-2015, 5 have made the majors so far - all five have positive WARs. Of the 10 this includes Stewart, Mountcastle, Hart, and Harvey). Of the ten, 2 have been all-stars (Machado, Weiters). Matusz has been a productive ML reliever (though a disappointment) overall. Gausman is ML caliber whose development has been completely screwed.

We are much better at drafting now.

And that time frame is heavily impacted by the near impossible cluster that was the 2001 draft.

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[Rich Mac]

DD doesn't choose the players when he is the general manager.

I know, I was just trying to answer an argument - that's why I put current organization in question marks. Any team's draft is going to rely on scouting and that is an extremely difficult thing to follow and determine the consistency of. You have scouting directors, scouts, coaches, friends of scouts and coaches...and all of it goes into evaluations of players to some respect.

I'm willing to bet that if you looked at the entirety of the MLB, you aren't going to find a highly successful supplemental draft history. Based on the very brief results that I have seen, I am willing to guess that 70 to 80 percent of the picks never have MLB lasting power. The Orioles results weren't even close to that mark.

[FlipTheBird]

If you want to define "current organization" as the one headed by DD, then we can evaluate his former GM stints and their supplemental picks:

Montreal:

Josue Estrada - 1993

Mike Thurman - 1994

Boston:

Chris Reitsma - 1996

Mark Fischer - 1997

Brad Baker - 1999

Casey Fossum - 1999

That's six supplemental picks and 2 pitchers that had any significant playing time in the MLB. Reitsma was a serviceable reliever.

Casey Fossum! There's a name I hadn't heard in a long time.

Anyway, I agree with the original post. Better of trying to acquire players via trade than settling for supplemental picks. And no, the organization isn't the same as it was in 2006... but it's just as awful at drafting and developing actual Major League talent.

[EagleOriole]

And that time frame is heavily impacted by the near impossible cluster that was the 2001 draft.

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Uggh, 1999 - think of this haul of draft picks:

13th Mike Paradis

18th Richard Stahl

21st Larry Bigbie

23rd Keith Reed

34th Josh Cenate

44th Scott Rice

50th Brian Roberts

Yikes - one hit.

Or in 2000 when no players drafted by the Orioles played a ML game for the Orioles...

Or in 2002 when the draft produced John Maine and Adam Loewen as the only two positive WAR players...

Or in 2005 when the total WAR for the class was 4.4.

Yeah, things haven't changed.

[EagleOriole]

Casey Fossum! There's a name I hadn't heard in a long time.

Anyway, I agree with the original post. Better of trying to acquire players via trade than settling for supplemental picks. And no, the organization isn't the same as it was in 2006... but it's just as awful at drafting and developing actual Major League talent.

See posts above to understand why this statement is dead wrong.