Our Supplemental Picks

[EagleOriole]

I know, I was just trying to answer an argument - that's why I put current organization in question marks. Any team's draft is going to rely on scouting and that is an extremely difficult thing to follow and determine the consistency of. You have scouting directors, scouts, coaches, friends of scouts and coaches...and all of it goes into evaluations of players to some respect.

I'm willing to bet that if you looked at the entirety of the MLB, you aren't going to find a highly successful supplemental draft history. Based on the very brief results that I have seen, I am willing to guess that 70 to 80 percent of the picks never have MLB lasting power. The Orioles results weren't even close to that mark.

I would better have to understand the assets we could acquire from say a Chen. But taking Kazmir as an example, he netted a 4th and 6th rounder. So would you rather roll the dice with a 4th and 6th rounder or a supplemental 1st rounder. Interesting to see the 4th and 6th round draft classes in the last 20 years and the picks between 30-40 the last 20 years and see where you have more success.

[FlipTheBird]

See posts above to understand why this statement is dead wrong.

I'm not going to give the front office credit for the success of Top 5 picks when we're talking about supplemental ones.

[oceanicvoyage]

I may be a little misinformed on this topic, but wouldn't trading for prospects be cheaper than having to pay the 5+ million dollars extra in signing bonus for these comp and supplemental picks. Selling now would get more established minor leaguers closer to MLB ready (maybe not as high of ceilings - but could be busts like Mac is implying) without the huge signing bonus. Plus that is extra money available for possible free agents.

[EagleOriole]

I may be a little misinformed on this topic, but wouldn't trading for prospects be cheaper than having to pay the 5+ million dollars extra in signing bonus for these comp and supplemental picks. Selling now would get more established minor leaguers closer to MLB ready (maybe not as high of ceilings - but could be busts like Mac is implying) without the huge signing bonus. Plus that is extra money available for possible free agents.

This is an excellent point.

[Rich Mac]

Alright...out of morbid curiosity, I took a larger sampling size. This is what I did: I took a third of the MLB teams, going in alphabetical order I went from Atlanta to Detroit. I sampled a 5-year period and went with 2006-2010. With 2010 being the most recent year, I felt that I gave all of the picks plenty of time to develop. I suppose there is always the possibility of a late bloomer in the bunch.

Players in bold are the ones that I feel have established themselves in the majors. They may not exactly be All-Stars, but they have made a career out of baseball. The ones in italics are what I thought were iffy.

Atlanta

Cory Rasmus - 2006

Steven Evarts - 2006

Jon Gilmore - 2007

Brett DeVall - 2008

Matthew Lipka - 2010

Arizona

Brooks Brown - 2006

Wes Roemer - 2007

Ed Easley - 2007

Wade Miley - 2008

Matthew Davidson - 2009

Christopher Owings - 2009

Michael Belfiore - 2009

Baltimore

Pedro Beato - 2006

Boston

Kris Johnson - 2006

Caleb Clay - 2006

Nick Hagadone - 2007

Ryan Dent - 2007

Bryan Price - 2008

Bryce Brentz - 2010

Anthony Ranaudo - 2010

Chicago Cubs

Josh Donaldson - 2007

Ryan Flaherty - 2008

Chicago White Sox

Josh Phegley - 2009

Cleveland Indians

David Huff - 2006

Cincinnati

Todd Frazier - 2007

Kyle Lotzkar - 2007

Bradley Boxberger - 2009

Colorado

Rex Brothers - 2009

Peter Tago - 2010

Detroit

Brandon Hamilton - 2007

Nick Castellanos - 2010

Luke Jackson - 2010

Chance Ruffin - 2010

If anyone disagrees, let me know. I did this pretty fast and may have goofed.

I have a total of 33 players with 8 bolded. That is a 24% rate. Right where I thought it was going to be.

[ChuckS]

Alright...out of morbid curiosity, I took a larger sampling size. This is what I did: I took a third of the MLB teams, going in alphabetical order I went from Atlanta to Detroit. I sampled a 5-year period and went with 2006-2010. With 2010 being the most recent year, I felt that I gave all of the picks plenty of time to develop. I suppose there is always the possibility of a late bloomer in the bunch.

Players in bold are the ones that I feel have established themselves in the majors. They may not exactly be All-Stars, but they have made a career out of baseball. The ones in italics are what I thought were iffy.

Atlanta

Cory Rasmus - 2006

Steven Evarts - 2006

Jon Gilmore - 2007

Brett DeVall - 2008

Matthew Lipka - 2010

Arizona

Brooks Brown - 2006

Wes Roemer - 2007

Ed Easley - 2007

Wade Miley - 2008

Matthew Davidson - 2009

Christopher Owings - 2009

Michael Belfiore - 2009

Baltimore

Pedro Beato - 2006

Boston

Kris Johnson - 2006

Caleb Clay - 2006

Nick Hagadone - 2007

Ryan Dent - 2007

Bryan Price - 2008

Bryce Brentz - 2010

Anthony Ranaudo - 2010

Chicago Cubs

Josh Donaldson - 2007

Ryan Flaherty - 2008

Chicago White Sox

Josh Phegley - 2009

Cleveland Indians

David Huff - 2006

Cincinnati

Todd Frazier - 2007

Kyle Lotzkar - 2007

Bradley Boxberger - 2009

Colorado

Rex Brothers - 2009

Peter Tago - 2010

Detroit

Brandon Hamilton - 2007

Nick Castellanos - 2010

Luke Jackson - 2010

Chance Ruffin - 2010

If anyone disagrees, let me know. I did this pretty fast and may have goofed.

I have a total of 33 players with 8 bolded. That is a 24% rate. Right where I thought it was going to be.

Too low of a percentage. I feel like with some B prospects (players that Chen and Davis are likely to bring back) that are at least already established at A ball that you have a better rate of success.

Wieters doesn't have enough value to move and there is a good chance he accepts a QO. O'Day won't get one, so I feel this conversation relates to only Chen and Davis.