Compensation picks are not a quick fix

[wildcard]

So the O's are supposed to make quality offers for Wieters, Davis and Chen. If they sign elsewhere the O's get compensation picks after the first round. Probably somewhere between pick 31 and 45. The O's got Ryan Mountcastle with the 36th pick as compensation for Cruz. He is not projected to help the O's at the major league level for 3-5 years if he progresses normally. If the picks the O's get this as compensation this fall follow that pattern they will arrive somewhere between 2019-2021. Not exactly a quick fix.

These guys probably don't fly through the minors like early first round picks Wieters, Jones, Machado and Gausman. And there is always the chance the are like Bundy.

Just saying.

[Rene88]

So the O's are supposed to make quality offers for Wieters, Davis and Chen. If they sign elsewhere the O's get compensation picks after the first round. Probably somewhere between pick 31 and 45. The O's got Ryan Mountcastle with the 36th pick as compensation for Cruz. He is not projected to help the O's at the major league level for 3-5 years if he progresses normally. If the picks the O's get this as compensation this fall follow that pattern they will arrive somewhere between 2019-2021. Not exactly a quick fix.

These guys probably don't fly through the minors like early first round picks Wieters, Jones, Machado and Gausman. And there is always the chance the are like Bundy.

Just saying.

I think most smart fans realized this long ago and that is why they are frustrated that we aren't exploring trades more aggressively.

My question is this: how much have we seen of DD in trade for prospect mode ?

[Stotle]

You could go college reliever route in hopes of having a league-minimum bullpen to help keep funds free for free agent fixes like Upton/Price, while looking to trade O'Day at the deadline and Britton in the off-season for upper-minors help. Spitballing.

[Can_of_corn]

So the O's are supposed to make quality offers for Wieters, Davis and Chen. If they sign elsewhere the O's get compensation picks after the first round. Probably somewhere between pick 31 and 45. The O's got Ryan Mountcastle with the 36th pick as compensation for Cruz. He is not projected to help the O's at the major league level for 3-5 years if he progresses normally. If the picks the O's get this as compensation this fall follow that pattern they will arrive somewhere between 2019-2021. Not exactly a quick fix.

These guys probably don't fly through the minors like early first round picks Wieters, Jones, Machado and Gausman. And there is always the chance the are like Bundy.

Just saying.

Why do you think a baseline scenario that consists of the O's picking three HS bats is realistic?

[Can_of_corn]

You could go college reliever route in hopes of having a league-minimum bullpen to help keep funds free for free agent fixes like Upton/Price, while looking to trade O'Day at the deadline and Britton in the off-season for upper-minors help. Spitballing.

What is the going rate on those guys? Could the O's turn one of those comp picks into significant pool savings?

[Rich Mac]

I started another thread this morning that goes along this line. I went through about a third of the MLB supplemental picks for a 5 year period. There is about a 25% chance that the pick will take hold in the majors. Not All-Stars mind you (although a few were), just serviceable MLB players like Flaherty.

I think B prospects give you a better chance at success.

[Can_of_corn]

I started another thread this morning that goes along this line. I went through about a third of the MLB supplemental picks for a 5 year period. There is about a 25% chance that the pick will take hold in the majors. Not All-Stars mind you (although a few were), just serviceable MLB players like Flaherty.

I think B prospects give you a better chance at success.

You could run those numbers and see what comes out.

I'd be interested in seeing the results.

[AlbionHero]

This is the main reason I don't like the idea of just taking QOs... draft picks are a big gamble and who knows when they'll actually make a major league impact. I'd much rather go with some more proven prospects who are close to ML ready.

[Stotle]

What is the going rate on those guys? Could the O's turn one of those comp picks into significant pool savings?

Depends on the particulars -- solid potential set-up is a round a 3rd Rd value. True MLB closers run late-1st to 2nd Round, generally.

[Can_of_corn]

This is the main reason I don't like the idea of just taking QOs... draft picks are a big gamble and who knows when they'll actually make a major league impact. I'd much rather go with some more proven prospects who are close to ML ready.

Even if they have a significantly lower ceiling?

[Can_of_corn]

Depends on the particulars -- solid potential set-up is a round a 3rd Rd value. True MLB closers run late-1st to 2nd Round, generally.

Thanks.

[weams]

I started another thread this morning that goes along this line. I went through about a third of the MLB supplemental picks for a 5 year period. There is about a 25% chance that the pick will take hold in the majors. Not All-Stars mind you (although a few were), just serviceable MLB players like Flaherty.

I think B prospects give you a better chance at success.

B prospects are like Jackie Bradley. Right?

[weams]

Even if they have a significantly lower ceiling?

You mean like a L.J Hoes ceiling?

[Can_of_corn]

B prospects are like Jackie Bradley. Right?

He was a B+ for 2013.

[weams]

He was a B+ for 2013.

So C now. Got it.