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Potential Landing Spots for Chris Davis


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I don't buy into the idea that you "show you're invested in winning" by signing players to much more than your best estimate of their value. I think that's a good way to show that you care about short-term player and fan emotions more than building a sustainable, winning organization within a realistic budget.

Market value sets itself independent of your own evaluation. After all, your evaluation could be wrong. So could market value. But with that approach, you could justify any move you made or didn't make.

You show you're invested in winning by putting a good product on the field. Chris Davis is a significant contributor to the on-field product that DD is responsible for managing. If you don't re-sign Davis, you need to find his productivity somewhere else. And they already tried and failed miserably to lie to us about the productivity replacement for Cruz and Markakis. You can't let Davis walk and replace him with Christian Walker and a moderate free agent corner OF and call it a day.

I'm not saying it's sign or bust. But if I'm the O's brass, I better make an honest run at him, or at least lie better than they did about Tex.

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Sort of like moving prospects for rentals in an effort to maybe nudge the playoff needle slightly, and knowing that once you make the playoffs it's a crapshoot anyway?

Yea, pretty much. Although if you're going to play to fan/player emotions you might as well do it with Grade C-ish prospects unlikely to come back as impact players.

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Market value sets itself independent of your own evaluation. After all, your evaluation could be wrong. So could market value. But with that approach, you could justify any move you made or didn't make.

You show you're invested in winning by putting a good product on the field. Chris Davis is a significant contributor to the on-field product that DD is responsible for managing. If you don't re-sign Davis, you need to find his productivity somewhere else. And they already tried and failed miserably to lie to us about the productivity replacement for Cruz and Markakis. You can't let Davis walk and replace him with Christian Walker and a moderate free agent corner OF and call it a day.

I'm not saying it's sign or bust. But if I'm the O's brass, I better make an honest run at him, or at least lie better than they did about Tex.

You do realize that the 2015 Orioles' BA/OBP/SLG is almost identical to the line posted by the 2014 AL East Champs, right? So they lied about having reasonable production after Cruz and Markakis left, but are getting the same production. Are you suggesting that they lied to us knowing the offense would tank, but lucky for them the team way over-produced and covered the lie?

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Is there an actual definition? Or just a feel thing?

Totally by feel. If I'd meant that his final career value was going to be 5.43 WAR I would have said it, but because I have no earthly idea I said "Grade C-ish" as a substitute for guy who is pitching okay in the minors but for whom I had no real expectations of making an impact.

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Totally by feel. If I'd meant that his final career value was going to be 5.43 WAR I would have said it, but because I have no earthly idea I said "Grade C-ish" as a substitute for guy who is pitching okay in the minors but for whom I had no real expectations of making an impact.

Got it. I'd agree with that characterization for Hader when traded. Not for a potential #4 starter with Triple-A success under his belt and a 2016 ETA.

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The memory of Mark Reynolds makes me worry about depending too much on Chris Davis, so I would not offer a huge contract to him - nothing over 14 mil a year and no more than 4 years. The number of strikeouts and the low batting average are not likely going to improve - and the power is already at it's peek. Seeing how easy it is to strike him out often makes me wonder how he manages to get enough pitches to hit to be as productive as he's been - and makes me question the likelihood of that continuing in future years.

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Got it. I'd agree with that characterization for Hader when traded. Not for a potential #4 starter with Triple-A success under his belt and a 2016 ETA.

My mostly non-scientific feel kind of balances impact and odds of success. I'd put Hader and Davies in similar grade letter baskets because one was further away with a higher ceiling, the other more immediate but lower ceiling. And with rather giant error bars over the whole "process".

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I say the nats end up overpaying since they desperately need a power/impact bat to go along with Harper.

Zimmerman and werth aren't those guys anymore and are on major decline.

Nationals have about 47 million in player salaries coming off the books. Span.Zimmerman,Desmond and Fister.They do have some guys that might get raises in arbitration and they will probably need one more starter.

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Nationals have about 47 million in player salaries coming off the books. Span.Zimmerman,Desmond and Fister.They do have some guys that might get raises in arbitration and they will probably need one more starter.

They may get a starter because they aren't afraid to make a splash in FA, but they already have 6 guys for next year: Scherzer, Strasburg, Gonzalez, Ross, Roark, Giolito.

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My mostly non-scientific feel kind of balances impact and odds of success. I'd put Hader and Davies in similar grade letter baskets because one was further away with a higher ceiling, the other more immediate but lower ceiling. And with rather giant error bars over the whole "process".

I think that undervalues proximity and skews too far towards "upside", but that's just an opinion.

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