General Draft Discussion

[Greg Pappas]

I thought that after browsing the various threads here within the Amateur Draft forum, that a general draft discussion thread was needed. In most of the other individual player threads there are questions and discussions about other players and such... and since the chats haven't been very successful, I figured we could use a place to just shoot the breeze as we are able... so, here we are.

[mtairydan]

I thought that after browsing the various threads here within the Amateur Draft forum, that a general draft discussion thread was needed. In most of the other individual player threads there are questions and discussions about other players and such... and since the chats haven't been very successful, I figured we could use a place to just shoot the breeze as we are able... so, here we are.

Greg what are your thoughts of the UGA SS G. Beckham? I saw his game on on TV yesterday and he won the game with a key hit late in the game, had 2 RBI's and 3 hits (including laying down and beating out a surprise bunt to 3rd) and make several good defensive plays. Thanks for all of your draft-related information and efforts!

[Greg Pappas]

Greg what are your thoughts of the UGA SS G. Beckham? I saw his game on on TV yesterday and he won the game with a key hit late in the game, had 2 RBI's and 3 hits (including laying down and beating out a surprise bunt to 3rd) and make several good defensive plays. Thanks for all of your draft-related information and efforts!

Thanks for the kind words

Gordon Beckham is playing himself into mid-1st round consideration, and latter end first round for sure. Gordon will stay at SS as a pro, which many college shortstops cannot claim. He will be at least an average defender, and likely a bit better than. He makes all the plays from short and is simply a steady influence and sure-handed defender. He'll make the occasional spectacular play, but is more of a Mike Bordick type, not real fast, but quick to the ball, has a good arm and has very solid defensive mechanics.

Offensively, Beckham can hit. It's not easy to be able to determine his offensive projection, as he has really blossomed from a 2nd round talent to the first rounder he is considered today. He has good pop and should hit for a solid average. Were I to venture a guess I'd say he'll be a .280 BA/ .350 OBP/ .430 SLG/ .780 OPS SS. Again, solid all around player, who could project to the #2 hole in the lineup, or possibly at the tail end.

Good player. Jack Wilson-like... circa 2007?

[mtairydan]

Thanks for the kind words

Gordon Beckham is playing himself into mid-1st round consideration, and latter end first round for sure. Gordon will stay at SS as a pro, which many college shortstops cannot claim. He will be at least an average defender, and likely a bit better than. He makes all the plays from short and is simply a steady influence and sure-handed defender. He'll make the occasional spectacular play, but is more of a Mike Bordick type, not real fast, but quick to the ball, has a good arm and has very solid defensive mechanics.

Offensively, Beckham can hit. It's not easy to be able to determine his offensive projection, as he has really blossomed from a 2nd round talent to the first rounder he is considered today. He has good pop and should hit for a solid average. Were I to venture a guess I'd say he'll be a .280 BA/ .350 OBP/ .430 SLG/ .780 OPS SS. Again, solid all around player, who could project to the #2 hole in the lineup, or possibly at the tail end.

Good player. Jack Wilson-like... circa 2007?

Thanks for the very nice synopsis on G. Beckham Greg.

If we do take a power hitter like Alvarez or Smoak in round 1 IYO which college SS prospects should we be tracking for rounds 2-4 of the MLB draft?

[Greg Pappas]

Thanks for the very nice synopsis on G. Beckham Greg.

If we do take a power hitter like Alvarez or Smoak in round 1 IYO which college SS prospects should we be tracking for rounds 2-4 of the MLB draft?

You're welcome...

A couple of possibilities from the college ranks are Vanderbilt's Ryan Flaherty and South Carolin's Reese Havens. I am going to paste to here from recent posts of mine...

"Another player that hasn't garnered alot of mention that may still be on the board in round 2 is Vandy's 6'3 205 shortstop Ryan "Flash" Flaherty. While not a gifted base stealer, he runs okay, but regardless... this kid can flat out play. He is a gamer, big game performer, excellent defender at short, and has enough skills offensively to project as a slick fielding, strong armed .290 BA/ .370 OBP/ .450 SLG / .820 OPS big leaguer, with 12-15 HR's to boot, if not more. Overall that's fine by me."

I think I may have somewhat overbilled his defense, although it seems he'll be a fine defender at SS, unless he is moved to 2B. Regardless, I like him and would be okay with him in Round 2.

Another kid to keep an eye on is Justin Smoak's teammate at SC, SS Reese Havens. Again, from a recent post of mine...

"Havens has the skills to man 2B or 3B, but it's unlikely to see him remain at SS as a pro. He somewhat reminds me of Dodgers farmhand and 2B prospect Blake Dewitt. Potentially he could develop into an average defender at both 2B and 3B, but I personally see him as at second. He is a solid athlete and has some pop, but isn't a big SB threat, so he will need to hit for average and provide some pop to make it in the bigs. He has the skill-set to succeed, but he must ride this wave of improvement to be a worthy 2nd rounder."

[blueguy]

I know college baseball season just started, any first round talent looking like they might drop? For anyone keeping track of injuries, loss in velocity, suspension, etc.. that may have an effect on their draft status.

[Greg Pappas]

I know college baseball season just started, any first round talent looking like they might drop? For anyone keeping track of injuries, loss in velocity, suspension, etc.. that may have an effect on their draft status.

6' 3 220 University of Miami OF'er Dennis Raben could slide. A lefty masher and good athlete strained his back and has played sparingly this season. He was the BA #12 rated college player after starring in the wood bat Cape Cod League last summer. He doesn't project to hit much for average, but could be a smaller scale Adam Dunn with more athleticism. I expect him to be around in round 2, although at this juncture I am not that high on him.

[wickedwitch]

Who are the near ML ready SS in the draft that could stick at SS besides Beckham? Which of these might thee O's target?

[Greg Pappas]

Who are the near ML ready SS in the draft that could stick at SS besides Beckham? Which of these might thee O's target?

Ryan Flaherty could move quickly and possibly Brandon Crawford of UCLA, who may be gone by our 2nd round selection.

[OSfanfromCT]

We've been talking a lot about possible SS's to take in this draft come the second round. Realistically, IYO, Greg, what will the O's be targeting with their early draft picks? We know how much AM loves his pitching depth, will Jordan overlook potential organizational needs to get even more depth b/c AM feels the key to long term success is pitching?

I'm not saying that the O's shouldn't acquire some pitching in the draft, but if the o's don't take beckham in the first round, will they go after the best possible ss next or do you think they might acquire a pitcher?

[Greg Pappas]

We've been talking a lot about possible SS's to take in this draft come the second round. Realistically, IYO, Greg, what will the O's be targeting with their early draft picks? We know how much AM loves his pitching depth, will Jordan overlook potential organizational needs to get even more depth b/c AM feels the key to long term success is pitching?

I'm not saying that the O's shouldn't acquire some pitching in the draft, but if the o's don't take beckham in the first round, will they go after the best possible ss next or do you think they might acquire a pitcher?

I believe that we will take the best player on our board in the first few rounds, then perhaps look at positions of organizational need afterwards.

If Tim Beckham is as great this year as expected, I doubt he'll be available at #4. Also Aaron Crow's surge has carried over since his Cape Cod League dominance, so along with stud Pedro Alvarez and Tim Beckham, these three seem the most likely off the board come our turn.

These things are oft-times unpredictable... monetary concerns, injuy concerns, team need concerns all can weigh heavily upon a team that had to be awful to pick so high. Perhaps Smoak or Matusz jump into the top 3, or even a wildcard like Melville, or Hosmer. Regardless, we need to take the player we deem as the best available and I believe that will be our strategy.

To answer your question about who we may wind up targeting, that is certainly a tough call, but here's a peek at my most recent thoughts...

1. Tampa Bay Rays > *Pedro Alvarez, College 3B/1B, Vanderbilt

2. Pittsburgh Pirates > Tim Beckham, High School SS, (GA)

3. Kansas City Royals > Aaron Crow, College RHSP, Missouri

4. Baltimore Orioles > *Brian Matusz, LHSP, San Diego

5. San Francisco Giants > #Justin Smoak, College 1B, South Carolina

6. Florida Marlins > *Eric Hosmer, High School 1B, (FL)

[Stotle]

Ryan Flaherty could move quickly and possibly Brandon Crawford of UCLA, who may be gone by our 2nd round selection.

Greg, I tend to think Crawford's struggles at the plate could mean he's still on the board at the start of round 2. Would you take him if available? I'm a little uneasy with the high K rate. Solid defense, though...

[Greg Pappas]

Greg, I tend to think Crawford's struggles at the plate could mean he's still on the board at the start of round 2. Would you take him if available? I'm a little uneasy with the high K rate. Solid defense, though...

No, I wouldn't take him. Too inconsistent for my taste... I'd rather pop a high upside talent that shows a strong tendency to stay consistent. He could rally and make either the first or supplemental rounds, but again, I'd pass.

[bluehens45]

Of the players in the draft who has chance to reaching the big leagues the fastest? I was thinking Smoak or Yonder. In a perfect world who is your #1 pick and a possible first round talent that we could grab in the second? How would you feel about these three in rounds one, and two? It may be to much to ask but how about your dream first and second rounder?

1. Justin Smoak

2. Dennis Raben

Here is my perfect mock.

1. Pedro Alvarez

2. Kyle Long/Jordan Danks/Shooter Hunt/Luke Burnett

3. Ryan Flaherty

I would go ape if Dennis Raben was around in round 2-3. I love his game. Talk about a masher!

[Greg Pappas]

Of the players in the draft who has chance to reaching the big leagues the fastest? I was thinking Smoak or Yonder. In a perfect world who is your #1 pick and a possible first round talent that we could grab in the second? How would you feel about these three in rounds one, and two? It may be to much to ask but how about your dream first and second rounder?

1. Justin Smoak

2. Dennis Raben

Here is my perfect mock.

1. Pedro Alvarez

2. Kyle Long/Jordan Danks/Shooter Hunt/Luke Burnett

3. Ryan Flaherty

I would go ape if Dennis Raben was around in round 2-3. I love his game. Talk about a masher!

1. 3B- Pedro Alvarez (Vanderbilt)

2. SS- Ryan Flaherty (Vanderbilt)

3. SS/2B- Derrick Gibson (Delaware HS)

4. 1B- D.J. Hicks (Florida HS)

If not Alvarez, then if Beckham were still available at #4...

1. SS-Tim Beckham (Georgia HS)

2. RHSP Scott Green (Kentucky)

3. SS/2B- Derrick Gibson (Delaware HS)

4. 1B- D.J. Hicks (Florida HS)

Something like these would be nice.