Hardy's weird hitting streak

[kelsey59]

But remember that each at bat is actually a singular event having no relation to any previous at bats, either from prior games or from the same game. So essentially the odds of getting a hit at any "at bat" for Hardy is roughly 1 in 4 assuming his average is .250.

The chances of him getting a hit are still 50/50.

Your argument is the gambler's fallacy. That is, if you flip a coin 20 times and 18 of those times are heads, the next flip is still 50/50. Casinos love this fallacy.

[1968_bills_fan]

Well the math is one thing, but it is premised on completely unrelated, random events.

Several things have been ignored.

Hardy is a professional baseball player. He learns from his first time at bat and from watching how the pitcher has pitched to other batters. His 2nd and 3rd at bats are done from this position and his success is better. He now has fresh in his mind what the pitchers's release position is. How his windup and the release of the ball fit together- a.k.a. when to swing. He may have piched up the difference in the wrist-elbow position for different pitches. He is down in the order and has some knowledge of the risk the pticher can take in a tactical situation. The Orioles have been ahead and over 50% winnerring lately, so that has constrained the pitchers and infielders positionning. After pitching around our power hitters, Hardy will get more "gotta have a strike here" pitches when the O's are ahead. Not random events

[Roll Tide]

JJ Hardy now has a 15-game hitting streak.

He has a total of 16 hits during the streak.

Consistently mediocre.

[Going Underground]

I think Hardy only had one two hit game for all of July.Also looks like only one three hit game all year long.

[Three Run Homer]

Well the math is one thing, but it is premised on completely unrelated, random events.

Several things have been ignored.

Hardy is a professional baseball player. He learns from his first time at bat and from watching how the pitcher has pitched to other batters. His 2nd and 3rd at bats are done from this position and his success is better. He now has fresh in his mind what the pitchers's release position is. How his windup and the release of the ball fit together- a.k.a. when to swing. He may have piched up the difference in the wrist-elbow position for different pitches. He is down in the order and has some knowledge of the risk the pticher can take in a tactical situation. The Orioles have been ahead and over 50% winnerring lately, so that has constrained the pitchers and infielders positionning. After pitching around our power hitters, Hardy will get more "gotta have a strike here" pitches when the O's are ahead. Not random events

So what you're saying is that if he's a .250 hitter overall, his probability of getting a his first at bat may be a little lower than .250, and his probability in subsequent at bats may be a little higher. And there will also be variations in the probability according to the game situations and the pitcher on the mound.

All true, and these would create slight changes in the probability of getting exactly one hit in four at bats, and thus the probability of having a 15 game hitting streak with only 16 hits.

It's also the case that .250 may not be the right benchmark--he's hitting .240 for the season, but around .290 during this streak. And in some games he has gotten 2, 3 or 5 at bats, not 4. I was picking round numbers and making simplifying assumptions to make the math easier, because I wanted a ballpark idea of how unlikely it is that someone would have 16 hits in a 15 game hit streak.

[OFFNY]

o

And of those 16 hits in Hardy's hitting streak, 12 of them were singles, while 2 were home runs, and 2 were doubles:

http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/gamelog/_/id/5908/jj-hardy

Lucas Duda of the Mets recently had an opposite end of the spectrum hitting spree.

In 8 games between July 25th and August 2nd, Duda had 11 hits ...... 9 of which were home runs, with 1 double, and 1 single:

http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/gamelog/_/id/30953/lucas-duda

[Frobby]

Slightly off-topic, but Hardy has really been playing some stellar D in recent weeks. He's played 70 straight games without an error and made a lot of very tough plays. I think his arm is stronger this year than it was in 2014.

[OFFNY]

Slightly off-topic, but Hardy has really been playing some stellar D in recent weeks. He's played 70 straight games without an error, and has made a lot of very tough plays. I think that his arm is stronger this year than it was in 2014.

I agree.

I think that overall, he has quietly been a stabilizing factor for the team.

Without looking it up, he seems to have had a lot of timely hits as of late in addition to his stellar defense.

[weams]

Slightly off-topic, but Hardy has really been playing some stellar D in recent weeks. He's played 70 straight games without an error and made a lot of very tough plays. I think his arm is stronger this year than it was in 2014.

I really agree.

[clapdiddy]

a mere 41 games behind DiMaggio.*

*Hunter gets out his calendar and notes J.J. can tie him at home vs. Boston on September 15.

You forgot to add "Buy those tickets now for this memorable event that's sure to be history in the making!".

Also happens to be my 25th wedding anniversary!