What are the chances of signing Parra?

[wildcard]

How do you figure?

2015 on pace for 3 WAR

2014 -0.3 WAR

2013 6.1 WAR

2012 1.9 WAR

2011 3.0

That is only one bad year the last five. The 6 wins looks like a fluke, but overall that is 13+ wins in the last five years. He would be entering his Age 29 season (vs. Markakis Age 31 in his first year). I would certainly rather have Parra than Markakis.

If a player wants to get paid he has to hit.

2012 - 727OPS

2013 - 726 OPS

2014 - 677 OPS

2015 - 888 OPS

Defense is nice but it doesn't pay much unless it has offense with it. No way I give Parra a 4 year deal then have him hit for a 730 OPS.

One or two year deal maybe. But the team that gives him three or more years will likely be very disappointed.

[25 Nuggets]

How do you figure?

2015 on pace for 3 WAR

2014 -0.3 WAR

2013 6.1 WAR

2012 1.9 WAR

2011 3.0

That is only one bad year the last five. The 6 wins looks like a fluke, but overall that is 13+ wins in the last five years. He would be entering his Age 29 season (vs. Markakis Age 31 in his first year). I would certainly rather have Parra than Markakis.

The Orioles traded for Travis Snider coming off a career year and despite his defensive metrics he's been a disappointment. They're not paying much ($2.1 mil + arbitration next year).

Parra is better than Snider... but how much better? He was below replacement level just last year, but that could also be a fluke like 2013 was. Tough decision -- I would wait to see how he does in August/September first.

[weams]

I want to rent him. He had several good plays today.

[AlbionHero]

For someone who has been a below average player every year until this one, let's not go nuts. 3 years is too much time to give someone who has only put together one good year. I'd prefer to do a 1/11 or 2/20 type deal. But no more. If anyone else wants to go nuts with 3 or 4 years for Parra, then they can have him.

6 WAR is below average now? And he's won several gold gloves in the past. Its not like he's Steve Pearce or something who just came out of nowhere.

[HokieOs]

6 WAR is below average now? And he's won several gold gloves in the past. Its not like he's Steve Pearce or something who just came out of nowhere.

That was almost all on defense (and I'm skeptical of the validity of defensive WAR). He also hasn't exactly been a great defender by the same stats over the last two years. In his career offensively though, until this year he has been average at best.

Not worth a long term contract.

[AlbionHero]

He is a clone of Alejandro De Aza.

You know... that guy we had to release because he couldn't even live up to a measily 1yr/$5M contract.

Ya'll really want to risk 4yr/$40M on that?

I also gotta ask where these De Aza comparisons are coming from.

According to rWAR, last 5 years Parra has been worth 13.1 WAR and DeAza has been worth 6.7 WAR. That just seems like hyperbole to try to justify not signing him.

[El Gordo]

I'd like to wait and see how he actually plays before I commit to him, but he's the type of OF we will be interested in.Not Heyward,Upton, etc.

[notyourbuddy]

I also gotta ask where these De Aza comparisons are coming from.

Well both are platoon players with near identical career offensive #'s: .268/.329/.406 vs .280/.330/.408

When it comes to WAR I guess it depends on the source. Fangraphs has De Aza worth 9.9 WAR and Parra worth 10.8 WAR over the last 5 years. Considering Parra has had more playing time to accrue more WAR it starts to become very close.

Then consider most of Parra's WAR comes from a single year where his dWAR was through the roof (a figure he hasn't repeated before or since) and you gotta wonder, "just how much better is Parra than De Aza going forward?"

Parra is a bad baserunner and has a sub-replacement level bat for a corner OF (when his BABIP returns to Earth.) If he is better than De Aza it has to come from his defense, but his defensive metrics are so screwed from year-to-year who knows what his value is there. Gotta use the ole' eye test on the guy in LF the last two months I guess.

[webbrick2010]

Why would we want to sign him

Parra was a waste of our #8 prospect.

He doesn't hit LH'ers (career .605 OPS) so he is just another platoon OF'er

He doesn't hit with power(career .408 Slg %), so he is not a great solution at corner OF'er

He doesn't steal bases (career CS% 35%)

and with the exception of one year the advanced defensive metrics rate him below average.

We should have been sellers, this team is going to miss the playoffs, and it won't be very close. Parra isn't going to make a difference.

[DJHJR86]

As others have said, it all depends on what he does with this team for the rest of the year.

[Yardball85]

Hadn't realized that. Yeah. Gotta be wary of that.

I would go as high as 3 years 21-24M and see if he bites.

[Ruzious]

I'd have to think Baltimore's chances of signing him are very good. His offensive improvements in 2015 are almost 100% in line with a 70-point jump in BABIP and Milwaukee was down on his defense since he arrived. I don't think the big production in2015 is going to dramatically raise his price tag in free agency.

So basically he's not all that good, and the teams around MLB are smart enough to realize that. Hence his price tag shouldn't be particularly high. Right?

[Stotle]

So basically he's not all that good, and the teams around MLB are smart enough to realize that. Hence his price tag shouldn't be particularly high. Right?

I don't think it's that black and white, since there isn't anyone who can honestly say they understand exactly what every organization values. But the two organizations that have spent the most time with him aren't particularly enamored.

[TouchemAll]

Way to early to worry about this re-vist at the end of September.

It could turn out we won't want this guy at all.

IF he tears it up then it was nice knowing you, it's not the Oriole way to go outbid or bid at all on high priced FA.

[Ruzious]

I don't think it's that black and white, since there isn't anyone who can honestly say they understand exactly what every organization values. But the two organizations that have spent the most time with him aren't particularly enamored.

As usual, you provide excellent perspective on the situation. Thanks.