What would you offer Heyward?

[ChuckS]

If the price tags with Heyward, Upton, and Davis all all similar (100-150 million dollar price range) give me Upton.

[isestrex]

When I first read the title, I thought of comparing him to Markakis to see how he matched up. Now that I read a bit and see that it's already been thrown out and slammed, I'll add some more info:

Career OPS+ (park and league adjusted power and on-base skills):

Markakis = 112

Heyward = 114

Peak season for OPS+

Markakis = 136 in 2008 (age 24)

Heyward = 131 in 2010 (age 20)

Heyward                                      Year   Age  Tm  2B HR SB  BB  BB%   SO SO%   BA   OBP  SLG  OPS+2010    20 ATL  29 18 11  91  14.6 128 20.6 .277 .393 .456  1312011    21 ATL  18 14  9  51  11.2  93 20.4 .227 .319 .389   932012    22 ATL  30 27 21  58   8.9 152 23.4 .269 .335 .479  1172013    23 ATL  22 14  2  48  10.9  73 16.6 .254 .349 .427  1142014    24 ATL  26 11 20  67  10.3  98 15.1 .271 .351 .384  1082015    25 STL  23  9 16  30   7.6  65 16.4 .289 .344 .439  1156 Yrs          148 93 79 345  10.7 609  18.9 .265 .351 .430  114

Markakis                                             Year   Age  Tm  2B  HR SB  BB  BB%  SO SO%   BA   OBP  SLG  OPS+2006    22 BAL  25  16  2  43  7.9  72 13.3 .291 .351 .448  1062007    23 BAL  43  23 18  61  8.6 112 15.8 .300 .362 .485  1212008    24 BAL  48  20 10  99 14.2 113 16.2 .306 .406 .491  1362009    25 BAL  45  18  6  56  7.9  98 13.8 .293 .347 .453  1082010    26 BAL  45  12  7  73 10.3  93 13.1 .297 .370 .436  1202011    27 BAL  31  15 12  62  8.7  75 10.5 .284 .351 .406  1062012    28 BAL  28  13  1  42  8.9  51 10.8 .298 .363 .471  1262013    29 BAL  24  10  1  55  7.9  76 10.9 .271 .329 .356   882014    30 BAL  27  14  4  62  8.7  84 11.8 .276 .342 .386  1052015    31 ATL  23   2  2  48 10.6  60 13.3 .294 .373 .372  10910 Yrs         339 143 63 601  9.4 834 13.0 .290 .359 .430  112

Jason Heyward is a similar hitter to Markakis on a younger track. He peaked early with power and everyone thought he would round out into an all around hitter. Instead he's been doing roughly what Markakis has done at the plate. They hit doubles, homers are in the mid teens, OPS+ very even. Heyward has decreased his K% recently but it's still not as good as Nick, walk rates are about the same. Heyward has more speed now but not a lot more than Markakais at a similar age.

Looking at just the hitting, would you say Heyward is a better hitter? Sure but not THAT much better. The only thing he has going for him is age. Nick once had that age and the promise of performing better but at 31 no one holds out hope any longer. You can still hold out hope that Heyward will break out from 26-31 but Nick didn't...

Of course one glaring absence from this comparison is the glove. Heyward is probably the best RF in all of baseball but it's not like Nick has not been a huge dud himself.

Personally, I don't think pursuing Heyward is worth the risk that he'll never live up to the expectations a large contract would demand.

[25 Nuggets]

If the price tags with Heyward, Upton, and Davis all all similar (100-150 million dollar price range) give me Upton.

Now THAT's a name that's been linked to the Orioles and I imagine they'll be in on the Upton sweepstakes. I think he'll end up signing for less than Heyward too.

[ChuckS]

Justin Upton has been very similar offensively to Adam Jones over the past several seasons. Probably a little better even.

Heyward has been more similar offensively to Nick Markakis.

Who would you rather have? Is Heyward that much better defensively than Upton to make up for the middling offense. Upton is also a base stealing threat. He had swiped 17 of 18 last I looked.

I think both of guys will get around 6 to 7 years at 20 mil per. I rather throw that money at Upton. Davis probably lands something in the range of 5/100, so still I would take Upton.

[oriole]

I want Heyward and Parra. That'd be one hell of an outfield defense.

[Babypowder]

Justin Upton has been very similar offensively to Adam Jones over the past several seasons. Probably a little better even.

Heyward has been more similar offensively to Nick Markakis.

Who would you rather have? Is Heyward that much better defensively than Upton to make up for the middling offense. Upton is also a base stealing threat. He had swiped 17 of 18 last I looked.

I think both of guys will get around 6 to 7 years at 20 mil per. I rather throw that money at Upton. Davis probably lands something in the range of 5/100, so still I would take Upton.

Yes

moar wurds

[TINSTAAPP]

Jason Heyward reminds me a lot of a young Markakis as a hitter. Actually, Markakis was the better hitter. He hit for a much better average and actually had a little bit more power as well. And Heyward's going to cost twice as much Markakis did. I would rather have Dexter Fowler. He's going to be much cheaper and has outstanding on-base skills. He would be a really good fit with this team.

[El Gordo]

Heyward is a .780 career OPS guy. The defense and OBP are nice but there's no way I'm giving him the 20+ million per it'll take.

Break the bank for Manny, sign Parra to a reasonable three year deal and try to sign an ace.

I doubt any one offers 20 M per.

[El Gordo]

Upton is Heyward two years older with more power, defense while good, is not nearly as good as Heyward's. He should get more AAV with fewer years.

[CA-ORIOLE]

I would sign Heyward to Jones' deal in a heartbeat. He's probably getting twice that amount.

Jones - 6 yr, $85.5 mil

Heyward - 8 yr, $171 mil?

Wouldn't shock me to see him get something like that.

[waroriole]

I don't want any part of the deal Heyward will get. Too much of his value is tied up in defensive metrics. This deal will be like the one Carl Crawford got.

[WEAVERMAN]

Interesting player, coming into age 26 season. Good defense, OBP, modest power, good make up. Could make a good leadoff hitter/RF. 8/130 M?

You think he hits enough to warrant that money? No thanks.

[WEAVERMAN]

I doubt any one offers 20 M per.

Too many years, maybe a short term deal.

[El Gordo]

Too many years, maybe a short term deal.

He's 26, he isn't going into a home anytime soon. He'll want the years for less AAV. He is a career .780 OPS. In today's offensive environment that's not bad.

[DrungoHazewood]

I don't want any part of the deal Heyward will get. Too much of his value is tied up in defensive metrics. This deal will be like the one Carl Crawford got.

Lots of unknowns. Interesting that he's a guy who seemed to be a coming superstar on the level of Harper or Trout at 20 or 22, but as the strike zone has grown his walk rate and power has stagnated or declined. You have to wonder if or when they "fix" the strike zone if he will bounce back. Certainly nothing you'd count on, but something to think about. Somebody might get a good deal from Heyward or someone similarly killed by the offensive dip. Maybe he's the new, improved Willie Davis. Without the bigger zone and high mounds of the 60s Davis might be more than a fringy HOF candidate. He certainly was more than holding his own at 20-22, but in '63 the new deadball era started.