What would you offer Heyward?

[DrungoHazewood]

Heyward is a .780 career OPS guy. The defense and OBP are nice but there's no way I'm giving him the 20+ million per it'll take.

Break the bank for Manny, sign Parra to a reasonable three year deal and try to sign an ace.

During Heyward's career the MLB OPS is about .720. From 1993-2009 it was more like .755-.760. Pretty recently .780 was a bit above average and maybe below average for a 1B/DH/corner outfielder some years. .780 is now better than average for a first baseman, certainly better than average for a corner OF.

[Crazysilver03]

What is the absolute largest contract the Orioles have ever signed. Not were rumored to have offered What is the biggest contract they have had in history?

I expect they don't exceed that.

Especially since there is no evidence that the MASN case will be resolved in their favor to give them the giddiness of divine optimism.

Weird logic. It is only the largest contract because they made a contract that was larger than the previous largest.

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[weams]

Weird logic. It is only the largest contract because they made a contract that was larger than the previous largest.

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I expect they don't exceed that. It will be fun seeing who is right when the smoke clears.

[Tryptamine]

This thread has made it very clear that a run saved doesn't have as much value as a run scored in most fan's eyes. I'd happily throw 8/160 at Heyward.

[DrungoHazewood]

This thread has made it very clear that a run saved doesn't have as much value as a run scored in most fan's eyes. I'd happily throw 8/160 at Heyward.

No, I think it says that some people don't trust defensive metrics, and others doubt that Heyward is going to be a +15 or +20 defender as he ages. Defense typically, but not always, peaks earlier than offense. I just think there's a fairly large uncertainty in Heyward's future. In eight years he might be a 5-win player (or more) or he might be more like a fringy-average Nick Markakis. 8/160 is paying for about 23 wins in today's money. Which is a lot, but Heyward has been worth that and more in the first five and a half years of his career.

[Phantom]

This thread has made it very clear that a run saved doesn't have as much value as a run scored in most fan's eyes. I'd happily throw 8/160 at Heyward.

Agreed. Defensive metrics aren't quite as reliable as offense, but we have a ton of evidence on Heyward, so I'm not sure that's a problem.

If we were ever going to spend big on a free agent, a 26 year old corner outfielder with a wide variety of skills seems like the time to do it.

[MeSoHardy]

Agreed. Defensive metrics aren't quite as reliable as offense, but we have a ton of evidence on Heyward, so I'm not sure that's a problem.

If we were ever going to spend big on a free agent, a 26 year old corner outfielder with a wide variety of skills seems like the time to do it.

I'd like to see them go after middle-range OF's that wont break the bank like Denard Span and Parra. That way you get serviceable/quality players that fit a need but WONT break the bank, allowing the Orioles to use their remaining capital to get a TOR starter and/or get Manny locked up. I think this is a very reasonable scenario/solution

[bpilktree]

No, I think it says that some people don't trust defensive metrics, and others doubt that Heyward is going to be a +15 or +20 defender as he ages. Defense typically, but not always, peaks earlier than offense. I just think there's a fairly large uncertainty in Heyward's future. In eight years he might be a 5-win player (or more) or he might be more like a fringy-average Nick Markakis. 8/160 is paying for about 23 wins in today's money. Which is a lot, but Heyward has been worth that and more in the first five and a half years of his career.

I agree with this I think Heywad is a very good player but not a great player to which we should offer a 6 year deal around 120 million or more that he would get. There is a few on here that keep going to WAR as the all or nothing stat but WAR loves Heyward way to much IMO. I took the stats last season of Andrew Mccutchen and Heyward earlier in the thread and showed how big of an offensive differenece there was yet both had the same exact WAR. I know defenese is a part of it as well but those offensive numbers are so much in favor I can't see how the defense would affect it so much. It is not like Mccutchen is Delmon Young out there.

[Creamsicle]

I'd like to see them go after middle-range OF's that wont break the bank like Denard Span and Parra. That way you get serviceable/quality players that fit a need but WONT break the bank, allowing the Orioles to use their remaining capital to get a TOR starter and/or get Manny locked up. I think this is a very reasonable scenario/solution

That's where I am too.

[El Gordo]

I'd like to see them go after middle-range OF's that wont break the bank like Denard Span and Parra. That way you get serviceable/quality players that fit a need but WONT break the bank, allowing the Orioles to use their remaining capital to get a TOR starter and/or get Manny locked up. I think this is a very reasonable scenario/solution

Forget the TOR, it's just not happening. Nor should it. How many 20 M SP are worth their contracts? Get a back end rotation guy like Buehrle and a couple of bats like Span, Parra, Fowler Napoli, etc.

[waroriole]

This thread has made it very clear that a run saved doesn't have as much value as a run scored in most fan's eyes. I'd happily throw 8/160 at Heyward.

Defense declines before offense, correct?

[DrungoHazewood]

There is a few on here that keep going to WAR as the all or nothing stat but WAR loves Heyward way to much IMO. I took the stats last season of Andrew Mccutchen and Heyward earlier in the thread and showed how big of an offensive differenece there was yet both had the same exact WAR. I know defenese is a part of it as well but those offensive numbers are so much in favor I can't see how the defense would affect it so much. It is not like Mccutchen is Delmon Young out there.

WAR simply uses one of several defensive metrics to assign value in a consistent way to players, putting them on a standard baseline. Looking at the metrics, they all seem to be in agreement that McCutchen is a below-average center fielder. They also all agree that Heyward is an excellent corner outfielder. The Fans' Scouting Report says McCutchen is a little above average, but that Heyward is well above average. And I'm not sure why you seem to think WAR undervalues McCutchen or over-values Heyward; while they're about even this year McCutchen has consistently been worth more wins than Heyward (career it's 38 to 25 by fWAR - McCutchen is more than halfway to a good HOF case).

[DrungoHazewood]

Defense declines before offense, correct?

In general, yes. Probably because it's closely tied to pure physical ability. A center fielder will usually never have more range than the day he comes into the league. Experience will just try to make up for loss of speed.

[El Gordo]

In general, yes. Probably because it's closely tied to pure physical ability. A center fielder will usually never have more range than the day he comes into the league. Experience will just try to make up for loss of speed.

It would seem to be the case that it does with the good ones. AJ, e.g. is a much better defender now than he was a few years ago, because of experience and technique learned. Hardy remains a top SS because of his learned technique.

[MDK02]

I'd love to get a good lead off batter with high OBP and can steal bases. That would be my dream signing.