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Who has the easier schedule, the Spankies or the O's?


1968_bills_fan

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I'm sure there are many high faluting math wizzes that have worked this over. I was wondering so I just took the following comparison. for each team.

SUM {1-Opponent's winning %} x {number of games} = expected wins

So ignoring home vs. away differences or changes between the prior season/opponents, O

s vs NYY games(6) and changes in roster we might expect the following number of wins for the rest of the season from the two teams.

Yankees expect to win 25.3 more games

O's expect to win 24.8 more games

So, the schedule (on the surface) is not going to be a big help in catching them as we are 5.5 games out right now.

some differences in the schedule are interesting....

They have 12 games left against the Red Sox while we have 6,

They have 10 games against the Jays (who have made some trades at the deadline) while we have 7

We have 7 against the Royals (NYY=0) and 3 against the Nats (NYY=0)

Head to head games and inuries are going to be deciding in my opinion.

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I'm sure there are many high faluting math wizzes that have worked this over. I was wondering so I just took the following comparison. for each team.

SUM {1-Opponent's winning %} x {number of games} = expected wins

So ignoring home vs. away differences or changes between the prior season/opponents, O

s vs NYY games(6) and changes in roster we might expect the following number of wins for the rest of the season from the two teams.

Yankees expect to win 25.3 more games

O's expect to win 24.8 more games

So, the schedule (on the surface) is not going to be a big help in catching them as we are 5.5 games out right now.

some differences in the schedule are interesting....

They have 12 games left against the Red Sox while we have 6,

They have 10 games against the Jays (who have made some trades at the deadline) while we have 7

We have 7 against the Royals (NYY=0) and 3 against the Nats (NYY=0)

Head to head games and inuries are going to be deciding in my opinion.

I'm hoping that the Red Sox play for blood against the Yankees, considering that their season is shot.

Treat it like their own personal World Series ...... and I'm sure that they will.

They would (as far I know) rather avoid losing to the Yankees than avoid losing to any other team in the majors if they have no playoff hopes at stake.

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I'm sure there are many high faluting math wizzes that have worked this over. I was wondering so I just took the following comparison. for each team.

SUM {1-Opponent's winning %} x {number of games} = expected wins

So ignoring home vs. away differences or changes between the prior season/opponents, O

s vs NYY games(6) and changes in roster we might expect the following number of wins for the rest of the season from the two teams.

Yankees expect to win 25.3 more games

O's expect to win 24.8 more games

So, the schedule (on the surface) is not going to be a big help in catching them as we are 5.5 games out right now.

some differences in the schedule are interesting....

They have 12 games left against the Red Sox while we have 6,

They have 10 games against the Jays (who have made some trades at the deadline) while we have 7

We have 7 against the Royals (NYY=0) and 3 against the Nats (NYY=0)

Head to head games and inuries are going to be deciding in my opinion.

Here's my issue with the Orioles. Out of all the contenders in baseball, only the Angels have a worse record against teams with a record above .500. The Orioles are 15-28 against teams above .500. After the Oakland series, a large majority of their games will be against contending teams. So what makes people so confident the Orioles will suddenly turn it on and be able to beat good teams in September?

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Here's my issue with the Orioles. Out of all the contenders in baseball, only the Angels have a worse record against teams with a record above .500. The Orioles are 15-28 against teams above .500. After the Oakland series, a large majority of their games will be against contending teams. So what makes people so confident the Orioles will suddenly turn it on and be able to beat good teams in September?

Because the good teams will start coasting towards playoffs ;)

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Here's my issue with the Orioles. Out of all the contenders in baseball, only the Angels have a worse record against teams with a record above .500. The Orioles are 15-28 against teams above .500. After the Oakland series, a large majority of their games will be against contending teams. So what makes people so confident the Orioles will suddenly turn it on and be able to beat good teams in September?

Who is confident about it? We will see what happens. No matter how you slice things, we have to play better over the remaining 57 games than we've played over the first 105 in order to make the playoffs. That includes playing better against the teams with winning records.

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