A look at popular CO Options we passed up on.....

[scOtt]

Seth Smith .255 .332 .454. (.786)

Nori Aoki: .304 .368 .382 (.751)

Colby Rasmus: .237 .314 .450 (.763)

It's safe to say that any of these guys would have been a better option than Travis Snider and we might still have Zach Davies. I'm aware that Snider is making a little less than these players, but a guy like Brian Matusz could have been easily non-tendered to make up most of the difference.

Seth Smith was the guy I wanted this offseason. The M's got him for a bag of peanuts from the Padres. I think it's safe to say he would be over .800 with the OPS if he was playing in Baltimore this year.

You left out Parra...

[ChuckS]

Why are we discussing players that are not Orioles on Orioles Talk? Just another opportunity to bash DD - when all he has done is put us on a winning path in the 4 years he has been here.

It relates to our 2015 offseason.

How about we just put a ban on any threads questioning a FO decision? He's earned it, right?

[EagleOriole]

It relates to our 2015 offseason.

How about we just put a ban on any threads questioning a FO decision? He's earned it, right?

Nah - actually you are right - I should have just ignored the thread and not commented - sorry...

[ShaneDawg85]

Why do we automatically assume that because somebody's doing well some place else that by default they'd be doing the same or better here? Wasn't that one of the viewpoints by some on Travis Snider?

[Frobby]

Why are we discussing players that are not Orioles on Orioles Talk? Just another opportunity to bash DD - when all he has done is put us on a winning path in the 4 years he has been here.

I think it is safe to say Duquette rolled snake eyes this year when it comes to corner outfield. OPS last year vs. this year:

Snider .776/.659

Young .779/.628

Pearce .930/.682

De Aza .700/.636 (as an Oriole; and now he's hitting .858 with the Red Sox)

Lough .694/.592

I mean, that could hardly have gone any worse. Then, to add insult to injury:

Cruz .859/.985

Markakis .729/.744

I think it's fair to say that, if you had looked at probable outcomes for all these players before the season began, this is about the worst scenario one could have imagined from the Orioles' point of view. I think it is fair to question Duquette's decisions, but one does need to recognize that he's been really unfortunate with this.

[srock]

I think it is safe to say Duquette rolled snake eyes this year when it comes to corner outfield. OPS last year vs. this year:

Snider .776/.659

Young .779/.628

Pearce .930/.682

De Aza .700/.636 (as an Oriole; and now he's hitting .858 with the Red Sox)

Lough .694/.592

I mean, that could hardly have gone any worse. Then, to add insult to injury:

Cruz .859/.985

Markakis .729/.744

I think it's fair to say that, if you had looked at probable outcomes for all these players before the season began, this is about the worst scenario one could have imagined from the Orioles' point of view. I think it is fair to question Duquette's decisions, but one does need to recognize that he's been really unfortunate with this.

Agree completely.

Moving forward I don't think Duquette is going to change his strategy either. The dice rolled in our favor in 2014 with Pearce and Young. I expect another roll of the dice in 2016.

Why? Seems to me Duquette is willing to commit money and years to 2B, SS, 3B, CF and to some extent, starting pitching (not necessarily in that order. These are the hardest positions to fill with above league average talent.

Corner outfield, 1B, and bullpen (most of the pen at least) will continue to be a dynamic situation where low cost and roster flexibility (options/multiple positions) is valued.

I guess we shall find out which category catcher fits in soon enough

[Herman]

I think it is safe to say Duquette rolled snake eyes this year when it comes to corner outfield. OPS last year vs. this year:

Snider .776/.659

Young .779/.628

Pearce .930/.682

De Aza .700/.636 (as an Oriole; and now he's hitting .858 with the Red Sox)

Lough .694/.592

I mean, that could hardly have gone any worse. Then, to add insult to injury:

Cruz .859/.985

Markakis .729/.744

I think it's fair to say that, if you had looked at probable outcomes for all these players before the season began, this is about the worst scenario one could have imagined from the Orioles' point of view. I think it is fair to question Duquette's decisions, but one does need to recognize that he's been really unfortunate with this.

True, but all of those guys had obvious limitations and it was apparent that the Orioles didn't adequately replace Markakis or Cruz before the season started. My biggest issue is that they have wasted about $20 million this year on guys who have been DFA. For a team with a "budget" and who won't spend money on free agents, that is disappointing.

[ChuckS]

True, but all of those guys had obvious limitations and it was apparent that the Orioles didn't adequately replace Markakis or Cruz before the season started. My biggest issue is that they have wasted about $20 million this year on guys who have been DFA. For a team with a "budget" and who won't spend money on free agents, that is disappointing.

Bingo. Let that sink in for awhile. Sometimes it's better to pay for the sure thing than spend 2-6 million on a handful of suspects.

[Herman]

Bingo. Let that sink in for awhile. Sometimes it's better to pay for the sure thing than spend 2-6 million on a handful of suspects.

100% agree. They went the cheap/value route when they were in a position to win this year. As a fan that is disappointing and unacceptable. Aquiring a guy like Parra is something that should have happened last offseason, not at the trade deadline and not after the Blue Jays significantly improved.

[Babypowder]

Bingo. Let that sink in for awhile. Sometimes it's better to pay for the sure thing than spend 2-6 million on a handful of suspects.

There are no sure things. That's especially true in free agency.

[srock]

Bingo. Let that sink in for awhile. Sometimes it's better to pay for the sure thing than spend 2-6 million on a handful of suspects.

But the guys like Cruz and Markakis were not available for 1 year deals. They were long term risks.

It is better to risk 2-6 million on one year suspects then it is to risk $40 million over 4 years on a somewhat less suspect player.

Its simply unlucky that none of those risks worked out.

[Frobby]

True, but all of those guys had obvious limitations and it was apparent that the Orioles didn't adequately replace Markakis or Cruz before the season started. My biggest issue is that they have wasted about $20 million this year on guys who have been DFA. For a team with a "budget" and who won't spend money on free agents, that is disappointing.

Bingo. Let that sink in for awhile. Sometimes it's better to pay for the sure thing than spend 2-6 million on a handful of suspects.

100% agree. They went the cheap/value route when they were in a position to win this year. As a fan that is disappointing and unacceptable. Aquiring a guy like Parra is something that should have happened last offseason, not at the trade deadline and not after the Blue Jays significantly improved.

My feeling is, sometimes things work out and sometimes they don't. The O's take some calculated risks, but sometimes even well-calculated risks come up snake eyes. I think Duquette has followed the same basic approach all four years he's been here. Some years the breaks have gone his way. This year, they haven't -- and yet, we're still in the race.

[Frobby]

Some projections from before the season for these players:

Player	 PA	ZiPS	Steamer	CAIRO	R-champ	PECOTA	BballHQ	Snider	400	0.719	0.773	0.706	0.719	0.702	0.783	Pearce	450	0.818	0.816	0.849	0.869	0.771	0.819	Lough	200	0.661	0.674	0.683	0.684	0.657	0.716	Young	250	0.698	0.712	0.742	0.733	0.711	0.727	De Aza	400	0.716	0.722	0.728	0.703	0.701	0.713	

The PA projections were mine. It's safe to that the outcome we've gotten is WAY worse than any of these.

[Herman]

But the guys like Cruz and Markakis were not available for 1 year deals. They were long term risks.

It is better to risk 2-6 million on one year suspects then it is to risk $40 million over 4 years on a somewhat less suspect player.

Its simply unlucky that none of those risks worked out.

I hear ya but the problem is that in one year the Orioles wasted almost half of what Nelson Cruz would have cost on guys they DFA. They did get a little unlucky but bargain bin shopping will only get them so far. The window with this core of players is about to close and the best they could come up with was Travis Snider?

[Ripken]

Letting Cruz go was an obvious mistake. That contract is not bad. Sure, maybe he'll stink by the 4th year but he's raking this year and there's little reason to think he'll fall apart for a while. On top of that, relying on fringe guys to repeat career years is a terrible idea. DD had a brutal off season and it was just as clear then as it is now. Losing Davis will be a huge blow. I know we're mid-market but we can (and have to) commit money to a few good players and we can't just keep letting talent walk out the door while simultaneously not building a farm system. I hope this MASN stupidity gets settled soon so we might actually be active in FA this year.