Davis is 2015 version of Mussina

[brooksfrankjim]

And this franchise is facing the biggest contract decision since Angelos let Mussina walk. Davis can be a maddening layer but the fact is he is an elite power hitting run producer who will be sorely missed if he goes. Buck has done a remarkable job of creating a winning culture, but that culture requires talent. The failure of this past offseason has set us back this year. If Davis leaves this thing can quickly become a house of cards.

I see Adam Jones as the major spokesperson that will tip this thing one way or the other. Adam left little doubt that he wasn't happy about Nick and Cruz leaving. If this team, this clubhouse, this franchise now lose Davis and others......why would Jones want to stick around for another rebuild? Why would Machado sign a long contract with a team that isn't committed to winning?

Davis is the tipping point and Jones is the mouthpiece. Don't be surprised to see Jones step up and push Angelos to re-sign Davis and if it doesn't happen, ask for a trade. What you gonna do Pete?

[Redskins Rick]

I think you are wrong about Jones.

I don't see him pushing Angelos to do anything.

Was Jones upset, of course he was, he quickly got over it and mind onto the game, since it is a business afterall.

[Babypowder]

They aren't signing Davis. It's a pipe dream. I honestly don't know why it is even being discussed this much. He's gone. Everyone needs to accept it.

[Aglets]

The largest FA contract in our history is 6 years, $72M for Tejada, right?

Our biggest contract extension ever is 6 years, $85.5M for Jones, right?

Yea there's no way we re-sign Davis.

We should just be praying that we somehow are able to make Machado the first $100M man in O's history.

[Frobby]

I don't like the Mussina analogy. Mussina was a very consistent producer in the midst of a career that borders on being Hall of Fame quality (we can leave aside the debate about whether he should be in). Davis is an up and down performer who is having a good year and is in the middle of a hot streak. Mussina earned every penny of the contract the Yankees gave him, and it wasn't that surprising that he did. I think there's a very good chance that Davis will be paid an amount that is much higher than he will turn out to be worth. Mussina gave the team some reasonable demands a year before he hit free agency. Davis is represented by Scott Boras, 'nuff said.

None of this is to say we shouldn't try to keep Davis. I just don't think the analogy is apt.

[El Gordo]

And this franchise is facing the biggest contract decision since Angelos let Mussina walk. Davis can be a maddening layer but the fact is he is an elite power hitting run producer who will be sorely missed if he goes. Buck has done a remarkable job of creating a winning culture, but that culture requires talent. The failure of this past offseason has set us back this year. If Davis leaves this thing can quickly become a house of cards.

I see Adam Jones as the major spokesperson that will tip this thing one way or the other. Adam left little doubt that he wasn't happy about Nick and Cruz leaving. If this team, this clubhouse, this franchise now lose Davis and others......why would Jones want to stick around for another rebuild? Why would Machado sign a long contract with a team that isn't committed to winning?

Davis is the tipping point and Jones is the mouthpiece. Don't be surprised to see Jones step up and push Angelos to re-sign Davis and if it doesn't happen, ask for a trade. What you gonna do Pete?

Preposterous fantasy. BRob and Nick were two of PA favorite players and look what happened with them. It's a business and AJ knows that, believe me he does. Jones is here for three more years and after that who knows if we will want him back. The bottom line is we need to replace Davis' production. Can we do that for less than what he will be paid in FA?

[TINSTAAPP]

Adam was upset because Nick was the only player who was teammates with Adam from the very beginning of his time with the Orioles. I'm sure they grew very close playing seven years and over 1000 games together. I really doubt he has the same attachment with Davis. Adam would probably be more upset about Wieters leaving in free agency.

[DrungoHazewood]

I don't like the Mussina analogy. Mussina was a very consistent producer in the midst of a career that borders on being Hall of Fame quality (we can leave aside the debate about whether he should be in). Davis is an up and down performer who is having a good year and is in the middle of a hot streak. Mussina earned every penny of the contract the Yankees gave him, and it wasn't that surprising that he did. I think there's a very good chance that Davis will be paid an amount that is much higher than he will turn out to be worth. Mussina gave the team some reasonable demands a year before he hit free agency. Davis is represented by Scott Boras, 'nuff said.

None of this is to say we shouldn't try to keep Davis. I just don't think the analogy is apt.

Mussina gave the Orioles 46.5 fWAR, including seven seasons of five or more wins. Davis has given the Orioles 12.9 fWAR, including one season of five or more wins. Davis' current production won't be trivial to replace, but he's much more Randy Milligan or Gary Roenicke than Mike Mussina.

[DrungoHazewood]

Preposterous fantasy. BRob and Nick were two of PA favorite players and look what happened with them. It's a business and AJ knows that, believe me he does. Jones is here for three more years and after that who knows if we will want him back. The bottom line is we need to replace Davis' production. Can we do that for less than what he will be paid in FA?

Will Jones be upset when Davis signs with, like, the Dodgers for $120M? Sure. All of us will be. But in the end its all about how the team tries to replace the lost production from the current crop of free agents. If Duquette comes up with a reasonable plan and they go into 2016 with a retooled team we'll all be fine, including Adam Jones. If they replace them all with bargain bin platoon players and a payroll 30% off of this year's there will be warranted skepticism.

[El Gordo]

Will Jones be upset when Davis signs with, like, the Dodgers for $120M? Sure. All of us will be. But in the end its all about how the team tries to replace the lost production from the current crop of free agents. If Duquette comes up with a reasonable plan and they go into 2016 with a retooled team we'll all be fine, including Adam Jones. If they replace them all with bargain bin platoon players and a payroll 30% off of this year's there will be warranted skepticism.

I'm assuming Davis will be paid between 16-18 M at 4-5 years. Can we find one or two players who will provide 12-15 WAR over that time period for less money?

[DrungoHazewood]

I'm assuming Davis will be paid between 16-18 M at 4-5 years. Can we find one or two players who will provide 12-15 WAR over that time period for less money?

Plausibly, yes. Trivially, no. And it's far from guaranteed that Davis will provide 12-15 WAR over the next 4-5 years. His entire career in his 20s, presumably his peak seasons, has been worth 13 wins.

[SeaBird]

Jones needs to understand his role is that of a player, not a special adviser to the team owner or FO. And Davis isn't the only one who will be trading camps in 2016.

[25 Nuggets]

They aren't signing Davis. It's a pipe dream. I honestly don't know why it is even being discussed this much. He's gone. Everyone needs to accept it.

So... that means the team won't be competitive in 2016 right? We shouldn't bother with expectations? Because the team will be bad if they try to solve everything in-house.

[Babypowder]

So... that means the team won't be competitive in 2016 right? We shouldn't bother with expectations? Because the team will be bad if they try to solve everything in-house.

Who says they will? Not spending 120 million dollars on Davis is not the same thing as not making any acquisitions. I don't believe the team falls apart next year without wildly overpaying Davis. They were pretty good last year while Davis was sucking and/or not present if I recall.

[DrungoHazewood]

So... that means the team won't be competitive in 2016 right? We shouldn't bother with expectations? Because the team will be bad if they try to solve everything in-house.

There is some small amount of theoretical space between signing Chris Davis to a 5/120 deal and handing the job to Christian Walker. Few things irk me more than the false scarcity of solutions. This is causing flashbacks to the cries of "if we don't sign Prince Fielder there won't be any more good first basemen to acquire for five years!!!@@!"