Duquette says signing Davis a priority.

[waroriole]

If the O's sign Davis then they will not receive a comp pick for him.

So in effect they will be forfeiting the comp pick to resign him.

Right now the O's are in line to have seven picks in the first two rounds.

1- pick

2- pick for Davis

3- pick for Wieters

4- pick for Chen

5- second round pick

6- pick for not signing #2 pick

7- comp pick

If they sign Davis then obviously they won't get a pick for him and the total number of picks drops for seven to six.

You think they give Wieters a QO?

[waroriole]

There have only been 43 7+ year-contracts in MLB history. Of those only Giambi, Pujols, Adrian Gonzalez, Miguel Cabrera, Freddie Freeman, Prince Fielder, and Teixeira are first basemen. I think it is safe to say that Davis has been less valuable pre-signing than any player on that list other than Freeman, and he signed an extension at 24. I doubt Davis tops 6 years.

It seems like every year I say "there is no way X gets that much money/many years." Every year it seems like I'm wrong. I don't think Davis gets 7 years, but I wouldn't bet on it.

[MurphDogg]

It seems like every year I say "there is no way X gets that much money/many years." Every year it seems like I'm wrong. I don't think Davis gets 7 years, but I wouldn't bet on it.

I'm just saying, if he did sign for 7 years he would be the worst on that list. Six weeks ago, I think Davis was looking at a 5-year deal and may have played himself into a 6-year deal. I would bet against 7 years.

[waroriole]

I'm just saying, if he did sign for 7 years he would be the worst on that list. Six weeks ago, I think Davis was looking at a 5-year deal and may have played himself into a 6-year deal. I would bet against 7 years.

If he finishes with 45 or so HR, that's a hell of a selling point for Boras in a power starved league. if a team wants to sign Davis quickly, it will probably be with 7 years.

Probably the worst of the list, but I'd give him a 7 year deal before I would have given Fielder one.

[Can_of_corn]

You think they give Wieters a QO?

Yes I do.

You don't think a lot of his durability, hitting and throwing issues will be improved by being another year away from TJ surgery?

[MurphDogg]

If he finishes with 45 or so HR, that's a hell of a selling point for Boras in a power starved league. if a team wants to sign Davis quickly, it will probably be with 7 years.

Probably the worst of the list, but I'd give him a 7 year deal before I would have given Fielder one.

Fielder was two years younger and was worth 17.5 rWAR and 19.3 fWAR in the previous 5 years, Davis will be lucky to top 14 rWAR in his last 5 years (he is at 12.7 rWAR and 13.1 fWAR).

[brianod]

I'm just saying, if he did sign for 7 years he would be the worst on that list. Six weeks ago, I think Davis was looking at a 5-year deal and may have played himself into a 6-year deal. I would bet against 7 years.

If we don't overpay, we will lose him. We have to overpay someone. Continuing to insist on value signings means we lose all free agents and don't sign any major free agents to replace the losses.

[MurphDogg]

If we don't overpay, we will lose him. We have to overpay someone. Continuing to insist on value signings means we lose all free agents and don't sign any major free agents to replace the losses.

I think the Orioles will end up with a 2016 payroll comparable to this year's payroll. It would be difficult to do that without signing a major free agent, whether Davis or someone not currently on the team.

[TouchemAll]

LOL DD always SAYS THE RIGHT THINGS I still say Davis is history he's not in PA's Budget.

[DrungoHazewood]

If we don't overpay, we will lose him. We have to overpay someone. Continuing to insist on value signings means we lose all free agents and don't sign any major free agents to replace the losses.

There's a difference between a value signing and a signing where you're all but guaranteed to get crushed. Teixeira has been a mild overpay, with a few lost seasons thrown in there. Ryan Howard has been an unmitigated disaster, and most people saw it that way from day one. Davis... it's hard to tell. He doesn't have a consistent, established level. He's been at two wins, seven, zero, and now four-ish wins in consecutive years. If you can sign him for, say, 4/80, that's probably a decent risk. If it's 6/120 or more you're probably not going to like a lot of years he's signed up for. The Orioles should be able to take on some risk. But they can't be ridiculous.

[waroriole]

Fielder was two years younger and was worth 17.5 rWAR and 19.3 fWAR in the previous 5 years, Davis will be lucky to top 14 rWAR in his last 5 years (he is at 12.7 rWAR and 13.1 fWAR).

Understood. However, Fielder has the type of body to make you cringe. It always seemed obvious that his decline would come much earlier than someone with numbers like that should decline.

[SpinJr]

I don't want to give up any of those picks.

You of all people know the odds of picks actually making it to the major leagues. You also know that signing Davis and him actually preforming are better odds than any of those picks working out.

[33rdst]

Davis' contract in 2016 = Norris, Wieters, De Aza. 22.1 million. All replaceable players.

[Frobby]

If there's one term I hate, it's when people say we should "overpay" for a player. To me, you never want to overpay. That implies, to me, you've paid substantially more than the going market price for the value you got, and that never makes sense.

With Davis, it's all about how good you think he'll be in the future. That's really hard to assess, because he is not a consistent player. Gun to my head, I'll say 15-18 WAR over the next six years. If so, 6/$120 mm is not an overpay. But he could be worth 10 WAR and he could be worth 20+ WAR. If someone pays him for the latter, he won't be an Oriole.

[Bahama O's Fan]

Davis' contract in 2016 = Norris, Wieters, De Aza. 22.1 million. All replaceable players.

Best post yet! We can easily pay Davis his money.