Duquette says signing Davis a priority.

[weams]

Of course he would have helped. But this is the same guy who just turned 35 and whose best season from 2011-13 was 1.3 wins, and even last year was just 17th in MLB in OPS+. Unless someone had a little fairy sitting on their shoulder whispering that they knew he had magic fairy dust that would keep him young forever it was kind of crazy to think he'd be one of the better hitters in the league in 2015.

I love Nelson Cruz and his PED filled reincarnation. He was a great Oriole. All of our young guys love him to.

[DrungoHazewood]

My point is if you're coming off a 96 win season and you let Nelson Cruz walk (4.6 WAR last year), Nick Markakis walk (2.0 WAR last year), hope that Wieters is healthy and Hardy is healthy....and then hope Pearce can repeat and 2-3 of the myriad of players that were DFA'd step up and take 2 spots..you're setting yourself up for failure.

Of course you frame this in about as negative a light as possible. Yes, you let Nick walk after consecutive years of being replacement level then bouncing back to barely average. Yes, you let Cruz walk when Jack Z starts dropping LSD and throwing $60M hail marys. No one expected Pearce to have a 5-win season, and he didn't need to. They thought of him as a complimentary piece, maybe even a platoon with Snider. You completely ignore the return of Manny, I suppose because that worked out amazingly well. You also ignore the Schoop breakout, which has certainly helped offset the guys who left.

Were the O's set for a fall back season? Sure. But that was the case whether or not they blew up 2016-18 by committing $30M to aging and almost certainly declining outfielders and another $10M for a 60-inning setup man with a spotty track record.

[Frobby]

Years 3 and 4 are irrelevant if your trying to win now.

I would never say this. Ever. Because I want to win now without having tens of millions tied up in unproductive players later. And it's not like having Cruz back would have guaranteed us the World Series -- see 2014.

So, years 3 and 4 are very relevant to me.

[Frobby]

It's good way to fill holes. Not gargantuan craters. Trying to fill 2/3 of an outfield AND a DH spot is not a smart idea. Especially if you have to platoon a lot of these AAAA players.

They were not AAAA players -- they just played like it this year. I expected some dropoff from Cruz to these guys, just not as big a dropoff as we had. Luckily, some other things have gone better than expected (Davis, Schoop, Machado, Joseph).

[weams]

I'm going to write it one more time in hopes you'll stop repeating nonsense:

The offense isn't weakened versus last year. It just isn't so. You can keep saying it, but it just isn't so. It is weaker at DH and RF, but overall it isn't weaker. It has done better overall. I have no idea why you keep repeating a point that isn't true, but I give up.

Read that quote. Really read it. How could anyone respond to that point other than "no kidding"? To hopefully end this, I will say I agree with your point.

Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

The facts are evident. It's not open for real discussion is it?

[DrungoHazewood]

I'm going to write it one more time in hopes you'll stop repeating nonsense:

The offense isn't weakened versus last year. It just isn't so. You can keep saying it, but it just isn't so. It is weaker at DH and RF, but overall it isn't weaker. It has done better overall. I have no idea why you keep repeating a point that isn't true, but I give up.

I think he's saying the offense is worse compared to the Orioles in a theoretical universe where everything else stays the same except that Cruz was resigned. Which is true. Of course if Cruz had been resigned many other things would probably be different. Like Duquette would have avoided signing like 9 bad players and subsequently releasing them and eating their contracts and Puck would have constructed a small altar to him in his back yard. Kidding!

[weams]

Curtis Granderson was a New York miracle again too. It's amazing what these old guys can do again.

[24fps]

Curtis Granderson was a New York miracle again too. It's amazing what these old guys can do again.

It's the water. New York has great water. Legendary even.

[weams]

It's the water. New York has great water. Legendary even.

“It’s mainly New York’s watershed program that’s the difference,” he says of the initiative that protects the region’s natural water sources, enabling local utilities to minimally-process the city’s drinking water. “They don’t use a sediment filter for their water, so a lot of the minerals that come from the reservoirs, as a result of those watershed protections, are still in the water.”

It’s all about the total dissolved solids (TDS) in the water, Pollack says, which is a measure of all of the combined substances in a given water sample. All of the elements in water affect the baking process in some way, but it’s the proportions of each element to the others that really make a difference in gluten strength. Those ratios also tend to be very local, differing not only from city to city, but also neighborhood to neighborhood. As a result, Brooklyn water might have a different TDS than Manhattan water, based on the treatment facilities serving each. (City-wide water reports can vary widely as a result, as most will simply report on the average TDS over a large area, rather than calling out these local fluctuations.)

[24fps]

“It’s mainly New York’s watershed program that’s the difference,” he says of the initiative that protects the region’s natural water sources, enabling local utilities to minimally-process the city’s drinking water. “They don’t use a sediment filter for their water, so a lot of the minerals that come from the reservoirs, as a result of those watershed protections, are still in the water.”

It’s all about the total dissolved solids (TDS) in the water, Pollack says, which is a measure of all of the combined substances in a given water sample. All of the elements in water affect the baking process in some way, but it’s the proportions of each element to the others that really make a difference in gluten strength. Those ratios also tend to be very local, differing not only from city to city, but also neighborhood to neighborhood. As a result, Brooklyn water might have a different TDS than Manhattan water, based on the treatment facilities serving each. (City-wide water reports can vary widely as a result, as most will simply report on the average TDS over a large area, rather than calling out these local fluctuations.)

It shows you how stupid ARod really was. All he needed to do was drink his eight glasses a day.

[mcgraw238]

The events of this past offseason have been debated to death. I don't think anyone has moved from their initial position. I think the O's blew an opportunity to build off a tremendous 2014 season whether they retained the much discussed FA's or upgraded in other ways; Either way it was a flop in my assessment. It's time for me to move on from the subject and see how 2015 plays out. DD has his work cut our for him in assembling a playoff worthy 2016 squad, one that likely will not include Davis, Chen, Wieters, and O'Day; I hope he does a better job this offseason. I'm down on his performance of late, but you can search the archives and see I was one who early on stated that DD might be a solid hire while the masses were going crazy, really crazy.

[MurphDogg]

The events of this past offseason have been debated to death. I don't think anyone has moved from their initial position. I think the O's blew an opportunity to build off a tremendous 2014 season whether they retained the much discussed FA's or upgraded in other ways; Either way it was a flop in my assessment. It's time for me to move on from the subject and see how 2015 plays out. DD has his work cut our for him in assembling a playoff worthy 2016 squad, one that likely will not include Davis, Chen, Wieters, and O'Day; I hope he does a better job this offseason. I'm down on his performance of late, but you can search the archives and see I was one who early on stated that DD might be a solid hire while the masses were going crazy, really crazy.

Davis, Chen, Wieters and O'Day have combined for 6.8 fWAR this season. At that pace they should end the season at a little over 9 fWAR. Fangraphs has the market value of a win on the free agent market at around 6-7 million dollars, so to replace those wins would cost around $60 million. Fortunately the Orioles will have about $45 million available, so if they spend that money wisely they ought to come close to replacing most, if not all of the wins provided by those four players. Add in improvements elsewhere and better luck on some fliers than they got this year and 2016 doesn't look quite so bleak.

It should definitely be a more exciting offseason. Everyone that was paying attention knew that they weren't going to be able to add any impact players last offseason due to having less money coming off the books and pending arbitration raises.

[bobmc]

Curtis Granderson was a New York miracle again too. It's amazing what these old guys can do again.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr"><a href="https://twitter.com/cgrand3">@cgrand3</a> This is you yesterday when the <a href="https://twitter.com/The7LineArmy">@The7LineArmy</a> cheered your name. Loved it! <a href="http://t.co/ShjTgBgwct">pic.twitter.com/ShjTgBgwct</a></p>— Brian S. Sokoloff (@BrianSokoloff) <a href="

">August 14, 2015</a></blockquote> <script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

[Stotle]

Davis, Chen, Wieters and O'Day have combined for 6.8 fWAR this season. At that pace they should end the season at a little over 9 fWAR. Fangraphs has the market value of a win on the free agent market at around 6-7 million dollars, so to replace those wins would cost around $60 million. Fortunately the Orioles will have about $45 million available, so if they spend that money wisely they ought to come close to replacing most, if not all of the wins provided by those four players. Add in improvements elsewhere and better luck on some fliers than they got this year and 2016 doesn't look quite so bleak.

It should definitely be a more exciting offseason. Everyone that was paying attention knew that they weren't going to be able to add any impact players last offseason due to having less money coming off the books and pending arbitration raises.

$60 MM doesn't get you 9 fWAR for next year, it gets you players that averaged that amount in recent years (approximately). You still need to pick the players that perform, or outperform, their recent levels.

This is one of the big pitfalls with using the WAR/$ calculations -- they are retrospective figures and really can't be used for projecting unless you also build into the calculations hit/miss rates and regression risk. Front offices running these types of exercises might say it will cost around $75 MM in investments to get $60 MM in production once you take all the extra garbage into account.

[MurphDogg]

$60 MM doesn't get you 9 fWAR for next year, it gets you players that averaged that amount in recent years (approximately). You still need to pick the players that perform, or outperform, their recent levels.

This is one of the big pitfalls with using the WAR/$ calculations -- they are retrospective figures and really can't be used for projecting unless you also build into the calculations hit/miss rates and regression risk. Front offices running these types of exercises might say it will cost around $75 MM in investments to get $60 MM in production once you take all the extra garbage into account.

Or you sign Nelson Cruz for $8 million and get excess value. The uncertainty goes both ways.