Have the O's upgraded enough to win a Wild Card Spot?

[wildcard]

The O's were 11-14 in July. If they had stood pat they would probably have not been a playoff team. So they made changes.

Pitching:

Out - Hunter, Norris and Roe to the DL

Added - Givens, McFarland and Garcia

Position Players:

Out - Lough, Snider, Parmelee, Pearce to the DL

Added - Parra, Clevenger, Lake/Urrutia

The results are promising so far in with a 10-7 record in August. I know all these changes were not done on July 31st but the point I am looking at is "Have the O's done enough to stay in the race?"

Pitching:

July - 3.63 ERA, ranked 7th in the AL

August - 3.56 ERA ranked 5th in the AL

Slight up tick but basically the same. But in August the Jays are 1st with a 2.56 ERA and The Yanks are 3rd with a 3.35 ERA.

Hitting:

July - 3.72 runs per game, ranked 12th in the AL.

August - 5.09 runs per game, ranked 3rd in the AL.

Boston and Texas are one and two. Jays are 4th with 4.94 runs/game and the Yankees are 10th with 4.29 runs per game.

In August:

Jays 13-4 .764

KC 12-5 .706

Texas 11-6 .647

O's 10-7 .588

Yanks 9-8 .529

Astros 8-9 .471

Angels 8-10 .444

If the teams continue at this pace through the end of the season:

KC 103-59 AL Central winners

Jays 97-65 AL East winners

Yanks 89-73 Wild Card 1

Texas 88-74 AL West winners

O's 87-75 Wild Card 2

Astros 85-77

Angels 81-81

So this analysis has the O's winning the 2nd Wild Card by 2 games. But it is very close.

So did the O's do enough? We have to watch and see.

[Eutaw]

Thanks for posting the projections based on winning percentage for 19 days in august. It's interesting.

The games another animal after call ups and I would put up Buck's ability to get the most out of what he has to work with against any manager.

Go Os.

I tapped, I talked, I conquered.

[allquixotic]

It's a coin toss. It'll really come down to one or two games. If we win a couple games we were probably going to lose, by way of something like a smattering of opposition errors in the same inning, and then avoid losing any games we were poised to win, we should be able to steal a wild card slot.

It also depends crucially on our ability to defeat other teams that are in the wild card race, head-to-head.

[gmelson26]

One of 2 of the AL East teams on your list will probably not be able to sustain that pace as all 3 teams will be playing one another a lot, which hasn't happened in the sample size you're using. A lot probably will hinge on how us, TOR and MYF play each other.

[Herman]

Imagine if these upgrades were taken care of in the offseason like they should have been. Just sayin

[Rene88]

I think we covered this. No, we have not. Which is why the Davies trade and keeping Garcia are conflicting.

Garcia has been good (which is nice), but I am sticking to the following:

1. WE have a bad record against teams above .500. This is VERY telling.

2. Our starting pitching it to inconsistent and time is running out for them to turn it around.

I hope I am wrong but I think the two wild card spots go to the Yankees (Blue Jays take division) and the Rangers or Angels.

[Frobby]

Imagine if these upgrades were taken care of in the offseason like they should have been. Just sayin

You really are a one-note Charlie.

Back to the topic: one thing we haven't upgraded, and probably won't, is the starting pitching. To me, the five starters hold the key here.

Chen 3.20 ERA

Jimenez 3.97 ERA

Gonzalez 4.42 ERA

Gausman 4.48 ERA

Tillman 4.54 ERA

That's not going to cut it down the stretch. They simply need to do better, or we will lose out. The good news is, Gonzalez, Gausman and Chen are all capable of doing much better than they've done so far. The question is, will they?

[Crazysilver03]

One of 2 of the AL East teams on your list will probably not be able to sustain that pace as all 3 teams will be playing one another a lot, which hasn't happened in the sample size you're using. A lot probably will hinge on how us, TOR and MYF play each other.

Jays and Yankees met twice and each swept a series from the other.

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[Going Underground]

You really are a one-note Charlie.

Back to the topic: one thing we haven't upgraded, and probably won't, is the starting pitching. To me, the five starters hold the key here.

Chen 3.20 ERA

Jimenez 3.97 ERA

Gonzalez 4.42 ERA

Gausman 4.48 ERA

Tillman 4.54 ERA

That's not going to cut it down the stretch. They simply need to do better, or we will lose out. The good news is, Gonzalez, Gausman and Chen are all capable of doing much better than they've done so far. The question is, will they?

Also,seven of our last 13 series are with teams who score runs.

Toronto,NY,Boston and Texas have scored the most runs in the American League.

[srock]

Orioles win the East after trouncing the MFY and stupid Blue Jays down the stretch.

Book it.

[weams]

You really are a one-note Charlie.

Back to the topic: one thing we haven't upgraded, and probably won't, is the starting pitching. To me, the five starters hold the key here.

Chen 3.20 ERA

Jimenez 3.97 ERA

Gonzalez 4.42 ERA

Gausman 4.48 ERA

Tillman 4.54 ERA

That's not going to cut it down the stretch. They simply need to do better, or we will lose out. The good news is, Gonzalez, Gausman and Chen are all capable of doing much better than they've done so far. The question is, will they?

Imagine if we had re-signed Cruz and Henry never got to play. Imagine that there's no one to catch that ball out of the stands that Henry caught the other day and imagine that Nelson didn't hit the homerun that Henry did. That's two games right there that we would be behind in the standings. It isn't hard to do.

And no back injury too.

Imagine all the people living life in peace, you

[Crazysilver03]

Also,seven of our last 13 series are with teams who score runs.

Toronto,NY,Boston and Texas have scored the most runs in the American League.

Luckily we will have a 13 man bullpen in September. I see lots of early hooks for struggling starters.

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[wildcard]

One of the things that this analysis pointed out to me is how well Texas is playing and how they could win the AL West if they continue to play well and the Astros continue to slip.

Texas is in third right now but they are worth watching.

[Frobby]

One of the things that this analysis pointed out to me is how well Texas is playing and how they could win the AL West if they continue to play well and the Astros continue to slip.

Texas is in third right now but they are worth watching.

As I just posted in another thread, the Angels and Rangers each have 23 games remaining against teams that are out of the race, while we have 10. (I am counting out Minnesota, but not Tampa or Washington.) We have a very tough remaining schedule.

[fearthenoodle]

You really are a one-note Charlie.

Back to the topic: one thing we haven't upgraded, and probably won't, is the starting pitching. To me, the five starters hold the key here.

Chen 3.20 ERA

Jimenez 3.97 ERA

Gonzalez 4.42 ERA

Gausman 4.48 ERA

Tillman 4.54 ERA

That's not going to cut it down the stretch. They simply need to do better, or we will lose out. The good news is, Gonzalez, Gausman and Chen are all capable of doing much better than they've done so far. The question is, will they?

I still think they need to add another hitter to answer the original question. On your point about the SP, hopefully the starters improve, but I do think that if they continue being mediocre, Buck will still have a lot at his disposal in September once he gets Roe/Wright/Wilson off the DL (fingers crossed) and can add Drake and Cabral as well.