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The Orioles are the WORST at Giving Back Runs (OR NOT)


schittenden

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So, once again, the game threads have determined that the Orioles are among the league leaders in allow the opposing team to score in the half inning immediately following the half inning in which the Orioles have scored. In 2013, I attempted to first put this notion to rest by analyzing a subset of the data (about half a season). Despite my efforts, the meme continues.

Last night, it reared its ugly head again. In an effort to again put it down, I did a quick manual analysis, and determined that the Orioles have scored in 279 innings in which the opposing team had an at-bat in the next subsequent half inning. Of those, Orioles pitching have allowed the opposing team to score in the immediately following half inning 78 times, or 27.96%. In 51 games, the Orioles scored in such an inning at least once and never allowed the opposing team to score in the next subsequent half inning. (In another 9 games, the Orioles never scored in a half-inning in which the opposing team had a subsequent at-bat.) Given that the data indicate an MLB team scores an average of 27.5% of the time, I surmised the Orioles might be about league average.

Today, my fishing trip on the Bay was scuttled because of weather. Left with a day away from the office, and time on my hands, I decided to brush off my very dusty knowledge of visual basic and see if I could analyze this data further. I have now run the data for every team in the 2014 season. (I offer up the spreadsheet containing all of the data for anyone who wants to see it. Just PM your email and I'll send you the XLSM file. I present it without guarantee, as I have only spot checked the calculations and have not verified that the VB Macro that I created worked perfectly in all cases. If you find an error, let me know.)

What I found is this:

  • In 2014, Orioles pitching gave up a "give back" run 28.61% of the time. So far, 2015 has been a slight improvement at 27.96%.
  • The MLB average in 2014 was 29.92%. This means Orioles pitching was slightly better than average.
  • The median in 2014 was 29.31%.
  • The worst team in 2014 was the Arizona Diamondbacks at a whopping 37.5%. The best team in 2014 was the Angels at 22.4%.
  • The Orioles were 12th best in baseball in 2014. The team's 2015 percentage would have ranked 10th best in baseball in 2015.

So, what have we learned? The Orioles are no where near the best in this department. Given our average-ish starting pitching, that's not particularly surprising. Conversely, we are far from the worst.

Maybe now we can put this meme to bed once and for all?

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So, once again, the game threads have determined that the Orioles are among the league leaders in allow the opposing team to score in the half inning immediately following the half inning in which the Orioles have scored. In 2013, I attempted to first put this notion to rest by analyzing a subset of the data (about half a season). Despite my efforts, the meme continues.

Last night, it reared its ugly head again. In an effort to again put it down, I did a quick manual analysis, and determined that the Orioles have scored in 279 innings in which the opposing team had an at-bat in the next subsequent half inning. Of those, Orioles pitching have allowed the opposing team to score in the immediately following half inning 78 times, or 27.96%. In 51 games, the Orioles scored in such an inning at least once and never allowed the opposing team to score in the next subsequent half inning. (In another 9 games, the Orioles never scored in a half-inning in which the opposing team had a subsequent at-bat.) Given that the data indicate an MLB team scores an average of 27.5% of the time, I surmised the Orioles might be about league average.

Today, my fishing trip on the Bay was scuttled because of weather. Left with a day away from the office, and time on my hands, I decided to brush off my very dusty knowledge of visual basic and see if I could analyze this data further. I have now run the data for every team in the 2014 season. (I offer up the spreadsheet containing all of the data for anyone who wants to see it. Just PM your email and I'll send you the XLSM file. I present it without guarantee, as I have only spot checked the calculations and have not verified that the VB Macro that I created worked perfectly in all cases. If you find an error, let me know.)

What I found is this:

  • In 2014, Orioles pitching gave up a "give back" run 28.61% of the time. So far, 2015 has been a slight improvement at 27.96%.
  • The MLB average in 2014 was 29.92%. This means Orioles pitching was slightly better than average.
  • The median in 2014 was 29.31%.
  • The worst team in 2014 was the Arizona Diamondbacks at a whopping 37.5%. The best team in 2014 was the Angels at 22.4%.
  • The Orioles were 12th best in baseball in 2014. The team's 2015 percentage would have ranked 10th best in baseball in 2015.

So, what have we learned? The Orioles are no where near the best in this department. Given our average-ish starting pitching, that's not particularly surprising. Conversely, we are far from the worst.

Maybe now we can put this meme to bed once and for all?

I'm hate visual basic ;)

But good analysis. I suspect if you compare these results to team ERA+ the ranking will be quite similar. An outlier in said comparison would be an interesting event.

Sent from my XT1528 using Tapatalk

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I'm hate visual basic ;)

But good analysis. I suspect if you compare these results to team ERA+ the ranking will be quite similar. An outlier in said comparison would be an interesting event.

Sent from my XT1528 using Tapatalk

There is a strong correlation, but not as strong as you might think and there are a number of outliers in the 2014 data. The Indians for example, were 7th in Team ERA+ but 26th in "give back" runs. The Angels, in contrast, were 16th in Team ERA+ but 1st in "give back" runs. Baltimore was 4th in Team ERA+, but 12th in "give back" runs. I suspect the reasons the correlation is not stronger is because to have a "give back" run, you have to first score runs and then give them up. So, having poor pitching will not result in a lot of "give back" runs if your offense isn't producing runs in numerous innings. You just don't have as many opportunities to allow a "give back" run.

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You need to send this to Roch Kubatko, who frequently complains about this, both in his blog and on Wall to Wall Baseball.

It's one of those things that is very irritating when it happens, so it seems like it happens a lot more than it actually does. Kind of the reverse of the perception that the guy who just made a great play in the field is often leading off the next inning.

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There is a strong correlation, but not as strong as you might think and there are a number of outliers in the 2014 data. The Indians for example, were 7th in Team ERA+ but 26th in "give back" runs. The Angels, in contrast, were 16th in Team ERA+ but 1st in "give back" runs. Baltimore was 4th in Team ERA+, but 12th in "give back" runs. I suspect the reasons the correlation is not stronger is because to have a "give back" run, you have to first score runs and then give them up. So, having poor pitching will not result in a lot of "give back" runs if your offense isn't producing runs in numerous innings. You just don't have as many opportunities to allow a "give back" run.

I doubt it makes a big difference, but why ERA+ rather than ERA, or better yet, RA? Park adjustments are not relevant here, nor does it matter if the runs are earned or unearned.

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o

I've stated before that because we root for the Orioles, it often seems like we are snake-bitten ...... whether it be in terms of immediately giving runs back after scoring, getting bad calls from the umpire(s), and/or getting bad breaks (such as the opposition getting cheap bloop hits, the Orioles batters getting robbed of extra-base hits, etc.)

However, I believe that it only seems that way ...... that other teams also get a lot of bad breaks, make bonehead mistakes, and/or sometimes lose games due to questionable managerial decisions, etc.

And it is because we are Oriole fans, and it hurts so much to watch them lose, to watch them get bad breaks, to watch them fail in clutch situations, etc.

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o

I've stated before that because we root for the Orioles, it often seems like we are snake-bitten ...... whether it be in terms of immediately giving runs back after scoring, getting bad calls from the umpire(s), and/or getting bad breaks (such as the opposition getting cheap bloop hits, the Orioles batters getting robbed of extra-base hits, etc.)

However, I believe that it only seems that way ...... that other teams also get a lot of bad breaks, make bonehead mistakes, and/or sometimes lose games due to questionable managerial decisions, etc.

And it is because we are Oriole fans, and it hurts so much to watch them lose, to watch them get bad breaks, to watch them fail in clutch situations, etc.

I think that's right. Although, KC had more than its fare share of bloop doubles in the ALCS last year.

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o

I've stated before that because we root for the Orioles, it often seems like we are snake-bitten ...... whether it be in terms of immediately giving runs back after scoring, getting bad calls from the umpire(s), and/or getting bad breaks (such as the opposition getting cheap bloop hits, the Orioles batters getting robbed of extra-base hits, etc.)

However, I believe that it only seems that way ...... that other teams also get a lot of bad breaks, make bonehead mistakes, and/or sometimes lose games due to questionable managerial decisions, etc.

And it is because we are Oriole fans, and it hurts so much to watch them lose, to watch them get bad breaks, and/or to watch them fail in clutch situations, etc.

In my opinion, the O's make far fewer boneheaded mistakes than most teams, and Buck makes very few really awful decisions compared to many managers. And we rob other teams' hitters more than we get robbed. It's a great time to be an Orioles fan from any of those standpoints.

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o

I've stated before that because we root for the Orioles, it often seems like we are snake-bitten ...... whether it be in terms of immediately giving runs back after scoring, getting bad calls from the umpire(s), and/or getting bad breaks (such as the opposition getting cheap bloop hits, the Orioles batters getting robbed of extra-base hits, etc.)

However, I believe that it only seems that way ...... that other teams also get a lot of bad breaks, make bonehead mistakes, and/or sometimes lose games due to questionable managerial decisions, etc.

And it is because we are Oriole fans, and it hurts so much to watch them lose, to watch them get bad breaks, to watch them fail in clutch situations, etc.

In my opinion, the O's make far fewer boneheaded mistakes than most teams, and Buck makes very few really awful decisions compared to many managers. And we rob other teams' hitters more than we get robbed. It's a great time to be an Orioles fan from any of those standpoints.

If that's the case, then that's precisely my point.

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