Why trade Roberts?

[ChaosLex]

I asked you very nicely to take off your orange-colored glasses....

You are referring to the Orioles owner who has publicly said he "does not have to overpay" for ballplayers. I agree that we will have to overpay dearly to get Tex, and I don't think PA will give him a blank check. There will be a limit to how high PA will go.

But back to my initial point (a few comments back). You bid with money AND intangibles (winning, competetive advantages, opportunity for success). The O's can't offer the intangibles that many of the real competitors can offer. That's where I think we lose in the bidding process.

Keep in mind, the Yankees don't really have a first baseman. Imagine being Tex, and the thought of hitting in that lineup, with ARod hitting behind him, or ahead of him. Or the fact that in Atlanta, he's playing with his idol, Chipper Jones. And let's not forget, the Mets need a first baseman as well.

How can we possibly compete with those options???

One of our insiders (I believe it was either bigbird or Belkast) about a year ago said that Angelos is preparing to offer Teixeira the biggest contract in Orioles history. I'm not sure how much things have changed now that MacPhail's with the team, but considering how we're starved for a hard-hitting, legitimate 1B (instead of veterans like Millar, Palmiero, etc.), I'd say Teixeira's still in the plans.

Also, as geschinger pointed out, being a Boras client, Teixeira is going to sign where the money is. I'd say it's extremely telling that one of the teams you listed (i.e., the Braves) haven't been able to sign Teixeira to an extension yet.

[Ballgame64]

In reading many posts, I keep asking myself, why are the prospects that were obtained in the Trachsel, Tejada and Bedard trades "potential future studs" or "can't miss" yet the FOUR players offered by the Cubs are "garbage", "mid level prospects" or "huge question marks".

Bruce Miles, a very respected baseball writer, was on ESPN 1000 yesterday in Chicago. He was asked what the other writers and scouts were saying about the non-trade. Bruce said to a man they were shocked MacPhail turned down Gallagher, Cedeno, Veal and Ceda for Roberts. Each scout thought the Cubs were very agressive in their attempts to get Roberts and showed they were willing to overpay when they offered the 4th guy.

Dave Kaplan from WGN radio said he talked to a Baltimore scout who couldn't believe MacPhail said no and then asked for a 5th player (Colvin). In the end, Kaplan wondered if MacPhail just decided he wasn't trading Roberts to the Cubs regardless of the offer. Personally, I don't agree with that. I would hope MacPhail's sole focus is making the O's the best team they can be.

Will Carroll from Baseballprospectus.com also said the Cubs showed they were willing to overpay and they will probably be glad the deal didn't get made. Not that Roberts isn't an upgrade but their projections for Veal are higher than most other sources. He also thought Roberts would get moved at some point and MacPhail would end up taking less than the Cubs offer.

I don't expect many here to agree with any of this, but I just wanted to offer information coming from people who get paid to talk about such topics.

As for the comments about not having to trade Roberts and hoping he would help draw Tex to Balt next year. They didn't have to trade Bedard either. Wouldn't it have been better to have Bedard as the ace of the staff if you were looking to convince Tex the O's would be competitive in 2009? I don't care how good Roberts is and how good the offense might be with Tex, if you don't have good starting pitching, it is very hard to outslug teams everyday for 162 games.

One last thing, for those posters here who resort to the mention of 100 years, do you really think that matters? Your team hasn't won it for 25 years, has had a very tough last ten years and is looking at being one of the worst teams in the league this year. Mentioning 100 years is fine, but it is kind of like saying you are the valedictorian of summer school when you look at the O's recent history.

[Ballgame64]

With a HUGE bargaining chip at the non-waiver trading deadline. Either that or with a guy who sees things improving and re-signs to play the remainder of his career as an Oriole.

Where does trading the 6th best 2B in baseball for a questionable return of prospects get you?

There is a very good chance you will be disappointed in offers for your HUGE bargaining chip at the non-waiver deadline. Most teams will be looking for pitching or middle of the order hitters, at least that is the historical trend. What if Roberts first half is more like his 2nd half last year?

Where does trading a top notch starting pitcher (Bedard) for a questionable return of prospects get you? Adam Jones may end up being very good or he may end being similar to Corey Patterson. To act like any prospects are sure things is funny.

[allstar1579]

There is a very good chance you will be disappointed in offers for your HUGE bargaining chip at the non-waiver deadline. Most teams will be looking for pitching or middle of the order hitters, at least that is the historical trend. What if Roberts first half is more like his 2nd half last year?

Where does trading a top notch starting pitcher (Bedard) for a questionable return of prospects get you? Adam Jones may end up being very good or he may end being similar to Corey Patterson. To act like any prospects are sure things is funny.

Don't forget that the 3rd most sought after items at the trade deadline are leadoff hitters/speed guys. How many times was Rickey Henderson traded? Not that I think Brian is in his class per say, but same principle. Depends on the team and the philosophy of that team. Plenty of teams out there still believe in traditional leadoff men, and the ability to steal bases, and those teams will pay for those qualities much like teams pay for 3 or 4 hitters or SP.

If Roberts 1st half is more like his 2nd half last year, we will have a much better offer than the Cubs deal.

[cindyluvsbrady]

You needn't worry. The Cubs-Orioles trade is about as dead as the stiff in Weekend at Bernie's.

Pleeeeeeeeeeeease be right!

[Sports Guy]

Seriously...How has rynomites not been banned? He is an obvious troll and has poor grammar...Both against board rules.

Does he have video of Scottie trying to intimidate kids?

[RShack]

Seriously...How has rynomites not been banned? He is an obvious troll and has poor grammar...Both against board rules.

Does he have video of Scottie trying to intimidate kids?

I always say that there's lots of stuff you're right about, and this is just one more of them. The guy caused me to ask if it's possible for somebody to get more than 1 red pip, but I never found out what the actual answer is. I think he would be an excellent test case, because he's never quite obnoxious enough to get banned, he just lives on the edge. So, maybe we could find out?

[Cubsfan]

In reading many posts, I keep asking myself, why are the prospects that were obtained in the Trachsel, Tejada and Bedard trades "potential future studs" or "can't miss" yet the FOUR players offered by the Cubs are "garbage", "mid level prospects" or "huge question marks".

Bruce Miles, a very respected baseball writer, was on ESPN 1000 yesterday in Chicago. He was asked what the other writers and scouts were saying about the non-trade. Bruce said to a man they were shocked MacPhail turned down Gallagher, Cedeno, Veal and Ceda for Roberts. Each scout thought the Cubs were very agressive in their attempts to get Roberts and showed they were willing to overpay when they offered the 4th guy.

Dave Kaplan from WGN radio said he talked to a Baltimore scout who couldn't believe MacPhail said no and then asked for a 5th player (Colvin). In the end, Kaplan wondered if MacPhail just decided he wasn't trading Roberts to the Cubs regardless of the offer. Personally, I don't agree with that. I would hope MacPhail's sole focus is making the O's the best team they can be.

Will Carroll from Baseballprospectus.com also said the Cubs showed they were willing to overpay and they will probably be glad the deal didn't get made. Not that Roberts isn't an upgrade but their projections for Veal are higher than most other sources. He also thought Roberts would get moved at some point and MacPhail would end up taking less than the Cubs offer.

I don't expect many here to agree with any of this, but I just wanted to offer information coming from people who get paid to talk about such topics.

As for the comments about not having to trade Roberts and hoping he would help draw Tex to Balt next year. They didn't have to trade Bedard either. Wouldn't it have been better to have Bedard as the ace of the staff if you were looking to convince Tex the O's would be competitive in 2009? I don't care how good Roberts is and how good the offense might be with Tex, if you don't have good starting pitching, it is very hard to outslug teams everyday for 162 games.

One last thing, for those posters here who resort to the mention of 100 years, do you really think that matters? Your team hasn't won it for 25 years, has had a very tough last ten years and is looking at being one of the worst teams in the league this year. Mentioning 100 years is fine, but it is kind of like saying you are the valedictorian of summer school when you look at the O's recent history.

Excellent post! I still don't understand how McPhail turned down those 4 players for Roberts especially when the O's are rebuilding. I'd love to have Roberts, but that bid was over the top.

[Ballgame64]

Don't forget that the 3rd most sought after items at the trade deadline are leadoff hitters/speed guys. How many times was Rickey Henderson traded? Not that I think Brian is in his class per say, but same principle. Depends on the team and the philosophy of that team. Plenty of teams out there still believe in traditional leadoff men, and the ability to steal bases, and those teams will pay for those qualities much like teams pay for 3 or 4 hitters or SP.

If Roberts 1st half is more like his 2nd half last year, we will have a much better offer than the Cubs deal.

Well, the third most sought after items is a distant 3rd. I'd say starting pitching, bullpen arms and middle of the order run producers. The point is there is probably not going to be a big demand. And by the way, can you name any of the players ever traded for Rickey Henderson? Here is a link for you. I don't think you will be overwhelmed by the players he netted the two times he was traded during the season.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/h/henderi01.shtml#TRANS

Maybe a better comparison is Roberto Alomar (who was all around a better player than Roberts). He was also traded in the winter and during the season. Take a look at this one and tell me if the O's are overplaying their hand with Roberts.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/a/alomaro01.shtml#TRANS

After the 2007 All-Star game, Roberts hit a robust .247 with OBP of .341. The OBP was respectable, but not overwhelming. He also struck out 56 times compared to 41 walks, hardly the ratio of a "prototypical" leadoff hitter.

Since mid season trades rarely net the same level of prospects as offseason trades, don't count on a better offer. Some people, outside of the O's world, would say the Cubs offer was as good as the O's will ever get.

[Sports Guy]

Excellent post! I still don't understand how McPhail turned down those 4 players for Roberts especially when the O's are rebuilding. I'd love to have Roberts, but that bid was over the top.

Yea, i think he was foolish to turn that down...I think AM thought(and maybe still thinks) that he was going to get the 5th player from the Cubs(Epat or Murton?).

[Cubsfan]

Don't forget that the 3rd most sought after items at the trade deadline are leadoff hitters/speed guys. How many times was Rickey Henderson traded? Not that I think Brian is in his class per say, but same principle. Depends on the team and the philosophy of that team. Plenty of teams out there still believe in traditional leadoff men, and the ability to steal bases, and those teams will pay for those qualities much like teams pay for 3 or 4 hitters or SP.

If Roberts 1st half is more like his 2nd half last year, we will have a much better offer than the Cubs deal.

Saying that leadoff hitters/speed guys are the 3rd most sought after items at the trade deadline points out the fact that the offer will probably be much less than the Cubs' offer. Historically, midseason deals return less than offseason deals. If contending teams are willing to trade top prospects, they will look to pick up starting pitchers, middle of the order hitters, and finally the leadoff/speed guys.

[Ballgame64]

Yea, i think he was foolish to turn that down...I think AM thought(and maybe still thinks) that he was going to get the 5th player from the Cubs(Epat or Murton?).

SG - FWIW...on WGN radio the other night, Kaplan said the 5th guy was Colvin. Kaplan made it sound like they were close with the 4 guys, maybe Hendry even thought they had a deal. Then MacPhail tried to get one more player. At that point, Hendry walked away.

[waroriole]

Where does trading a top notch starting pitcher (Bedard) for a questionable return of prospects get you? Adam Jones may end up being very good or he may end being similar to Corey Patterson. To act like any prospects are sure things is funny.

You contradict yourself here. First, you say that the O's were foolish for not taking the Cubs offer for BRob. Then, you say that prospects don't always pan out when talking about the Mariners trade. Which is it? If they don't always pan out then maybe McPhail was wise in not taking the Cubs offer, and keeping BRob.

BTW, I don't know who you think we got from the Mariners but by all accounts it's one of the best returns in recent years and by far better than anything the Cubs have offered for BRob.

[Cubsfan]

We were not outbid for Vladimir Guerrero or Paul Konerko in terms of dollars, but we were outbid in terms of competitive advantage. There is no guarantee that this things gets turned around, fixed, etc. even if Tex signs here.

Money aside (he'll be very rich regardless of where he signs), signing in Baltimore long-term is a HUGE risk for anyone over the next few years. Especially if there are any contenders in the mix bidding against us, which there WILL be.

The ONLY thing we have going for us is the fact that he grew up in Maryland, and that's it.

Sorry, but that's reality.

Not only are you bidding against franchises with winning records and deep pockets, you need to realize that the Yankees could drop about $80.5 million in expiring contracts (Giambi, Abreu, Pettitte, Mussina, Pavano, Farnsworth), the Red Sox $37 million (Ramirez, Varitek, Schilling), the Mets $41 million (Delgado, Martinez, Alou Hernandez), and the Angels about $36 million (Anderson, Garland, Lackey, Figgins). The bidding is going to be hot and heavy for Sabbathia and Tex.

[ChaosLex]

Not only are you bidding against franchises with winning records and deep pockets, you need to realize that the Yankees could drop about $80.5 million in expiring contracts (Giambi, Abreu, Pettitte, Mussina, Pavano, Farnsworth), the Red Sox $37 million (Ramirez, Varitek, Schilling), the Mets $41 million (Delgado, Martinez, Alou Hernandez), and the Angels about $36 million (Anderson, Garland, Lackey, Figgins). The bidding is going to be hot and heavy for Sabbathia and Tex.

Soriano was a hot commodity when the Cubs signed him. And they had a record worse than we did that year.