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What happened to the O's starters this year?


wildcard

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Injures, illness and a lack of conditioning pretty tells the tale of what happen to the O's staff this year.

1) Chen - None of this applies to Chen. He has had a very good year and the fact the the O's don't score for him or the pen gives up leads for him should not diminish what he has accomplished.

2) Bud Norris - Never found his control in ST but then he caught bronchitis and lost a significant amount of weight. He never gained his 2014 form. He also blamed being distracted by free agency.

3) Gonzalez - He had a 3.33 ERA in middle June when he went on the DL with a groin injury. He never pitched to his potential after that. Probably was not 100% after the injury. To be fair I don't think Gonzo's 170 pound frame is built to give the O's 32 starts. His 2014 season of 26 starts is probably about the best we can ask for. He needs some rest during the season. And really 26 starts at a 3.23 ERA is a heck of a good year.

4) The Trifacta. In the dog days of August when the O's needed to dip into their farm system for starter help, the help vanished. The O's traded Zach Davies on July 29th for outfield help because they had Mike Wright and Tyler Wilson. However, Mike Wright pulled a calf muscle on August 1st and went on the DL. Wilson pitches for the O's August 3rd and is optioned. He injures is oblique a few days later and goes on Norfolk's DL. The starting help the O's needed to get through August was gone.

5) Tillman - Do you remember the pictures of Chris at mini camp last off season? He looked out of shape. He did gain weight but that in and of itself is not bad. Something that can help. Maybe not this season though. Chris got married last November and his live changed. Thinking back on the pictures and the weight I have to wonder if his focus on baseball was what it had been in the past when he needed to be conditioning last offseason.

6) Jimenez - It would appear that he is just not that good. No injury here. And I doubt it gets much better. The offseason should probably include trading Jimenez for another bad contract. He O's need better starting pitching.

7) Gausman - The injury earlier this season doesn't seem to be affecting him now. He needs to perfect a 3rd pitch. A lot of potential but he needs to pitch to get experience and he needs to pitch better.

8) Dave Wallace - Its been a rough season for Dave. Some of the shine came off his guru status this year. The injury complications I just explained didn't help.

Keep Gausman, Tillman and Gonzalez. Re-sign Chen if you can. I know it will be hard or maybe impossible. Hope for better heath from Wright and Wilson. See what Miranda has to offer. Probably add a starter. Hope that Bundy and Harvey get healthy. Those they might not help at the beginning of 2016, they are important to the future of the O's.

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Injures, illness and a lack of conditioning pretty tells the tale of what happen to the O's staff this year.

1) Chen - None of this applies to Chen. He has had a very good year and the fact the the O's don't score for him or the pen gives up leads for him should not diminish what he has accomplished.

2) Bud Norris - Never found his control in ST but then he caught bronchitis and lost a significant amount of weight. He never gained his 2014 form. He also blamed being distracted by free agency.

3) Gonzalez - He had a 3.33 ERA in middle June when he went on the DL with a groin injury. He never pitched to his potential after that. Probably was not 100% after the injury. To be fair I don't think Gonzo's 170 pound frame is built to give the O's 32 starts. His 2014 season of 26 starts is probably about the best we can ask for. He needs some rest during the season. And really 26 starts at a 3.23 ERA is a heck of a good year.

4) The Trifacta. In the dog days of August when the O's needed to dip into their farm system for starter help, the help vanished. The O's traded Zach Davies on July 29th for outfield help because they had Mike Wright and Tyler Wilson. However, Mike Wright pulled a calf muscle on August 1st and went on the DL. Wilson pitches for the O's August 3rd and is optioned. He injures is oblique a few days later and goes on Norfolk's DL. The starting help the O's needed to get through August was gone.

5) Tillman - Do you remember the pictures of Chris at mini camp last off season? He looked out of shape. He did gain weight but that in and of itself is not bad. Something that can help. Maybe not this season though. Chris got married last November and his live changed. Thinking back on the pictures and the weight I have to wonder if his focus on baseball was what it had been in the past when he needed to be conditioning last offseason.

6) Jimenez - It would appear that he is just not that good. No injury here. And I doubt it gets much better. The offseason should probably include trading Jimenez for another bad contract. He O's need better starting pitching.

7) Gausman - The injury earlier this season doesn't seem to be affecting him now. He needs to perfect a 3rd pitch. A lot of potential but he needs to pitch to get experience and he needs to pitch better.

8) Dave Wallace - Its been a rough season for Dave. Some of the shine came off his guru status this year. The injury complications I just explained didn't help.

Keep Gausman, Tillman and Gonzalez. Re-sign Chen if you can. I know it will be hard or maybe impossible. Hope for better heath from Wright and Wilson. See what Miranda has to offer. Probably add a starter. Hope that Bundy and Harvey get healthy. Those they might not help at the beginning of 2016, they are important to the future of the O's.

Chen is a #3 starter at best. He will get #2 starter money. Not worth it.

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Chen is a #3 starter at best. He will get #2 starter money. Not worth it.

Chen's performance does not agree.

He is on pace to pitch 194 innings. He ranks 8th in the AL with a 3.17 ERA. That is at least a #2 IMO.

http://mlb.mlb.com/stats/sortable.jsp#elem=%5Bobject+Object%5D&tab_level=child&click_text=Sortable+Player+pitching&game_type='R'&season=2015&season_type=ANY&league_code='AL'&sectionType=sp&statType=pitching&page=1&ts=1441024666368&timeframe=

He will get paid and I don't know if the O's can afford him or re-sign him. But he has pitched very well.

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In another thread we identified 12 pitchers who are roughly on Chen's level, but most of whom will get less money because they are older or have had injuries. I think it is more likely that we sign one (or even two) of them, than that we sign Chen.

I do think you may be correct that Tillman's disappointing performance is related to not working as hard on his conditioning this offseason.

By the way, your projection that Chen will throw 194 innings is based on just the ratio of 162/130 x 156 innings so far. But Chen starts today, and including tonight, should start 7 times before the season is over. Considering he has averaged 6.24 IP/start, I'd say he's on pace to throw 199-200 innings.

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2015 Chen is a good #2 but overall he would be best as a great #3.

The thing I have been noticing about Gausman lately is his fastball has been getting crushed. Offspeed pitches are not his only problem. He has to work on keeping the FB down and hitting his spots. Of course, part of the reason he is grooving the FB is because hitters know the FB is coming.

Tillman seems to have turned a corner. Very good July, OK August. I think it is fair to expect a bit of a bounceback to his norms after a very rough start. I am OK with Tillman as our #2 next year, but I would also be OK with trading him for MLB ready prospects. He is starting to get expensive enough that he is not a bargain any more.

Gonzo was off to a terrific start this year. That only underscores how bad he has been since the injury. I am hopeful that with some rest he can be good again. I also think he has enough of a track record that he can still be a value to another team, and, like Tillman, if we go with a rebuilding plan it could make sense to move his salary for prospects and put the money to a free agent or Manny extension. He is a 4th/5th starter at best for us and the spot could be used to see what we have in Wright, Wilson, Miranda, and Gunkel.

Ubaldo is what he is. Maybe he can improve incrementally and sustain his good outing a little more. Ultimately, he walks a lot of guys and does not have the stuff to get himself out of jams consistently. At least he has gotten the walk rate down and has proven he can hold down a backend spot in the rotation.

We absolutely must resign or replace Chen if we want to compete next year. Kazmir makes a ton of sense as someone who won't require nearly the years or dollars of Price but could produce at a solid level. Would not cost a comp pick.

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In another thread we identified 12 pitchers who are roughly on Chen's level, but most of whom will get less money because they are older or have had injuries. I think it is more likely that we sign one (or even two) of them, than that we sign Chen.

I do think you may be correct that Tillman's disappointing performance is related to not working as hard on his conditioning this offseason.

And don't forget, some of those 12 would also come without costing the comp pick that we will receive for Chen's QO. Like Kazmir.

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Injures, illness and a lack of conditioning pretty tells the tale of what happen to the O's staff this year.

1) Chen - None of this applies to Chen. He has had a very good year and the fact the the O's don't score for him or the pen gives up leads for him should not diminish what he has accomplished.

2) Bud Norris - Never found his control in ST but then he caught bronchitis and lost a significant amount of weight. He never gained his 2014 form. He also blamed being distracted by free agency.

3) Gonzalez - He had a 3.33 ERA in middle June when he went on the DL with a groin injury. He never pitched to his potential after that. Probably was not 100% after the injury. To be fair I don't think Gonzo's 170 pound frame is built to give the O's 32 starts. His 2014 season of 26 starts is probably about the best we can ask for. He needs some rest during the season. And really 26 starts at a 3.23 ERA is a heck of a good year.

4) The Trifacta. In the dog days of August when the O's needed to dip into their farm system for starter help, the help vanished. The O's traded Zach Davies on July 29th for outfield help because they had Mike Wright and Tyler Wilson. However, Mike Wright pulled a calf muscle on August 1st and went on the DL. Wilson pitches for the O's August 3rd and is optioned. He injures is oblique a few days later and goes on Norfolk's DL. The starting help the O's needed to get through August was gone.

5) Tillman - Do you remember the pictures of Chris at mini camp last off season? He looked out of shape. He did gain weight but that in and of itself is not bad. Something that can help. Maybe not this season though. Chris got married last November and his live changed. Thinking back on the pictures and the weight I have to wonder if his focus on baseball was what it had been in the past when he needed to be conditioning last offseason.

6) Jimenez - It would appear that he is just not that good. No injury here. And I doubt it gets much better. The offseason should probably include trading Jimenez for another bad contract. He O's need better starting pitching.

7) Gausman - The injury earlier this season doesn't seem to be affecting him now. He needs to perfect a 3rd pitch. A lot of potential but he needs to pitch to get experience and he needs to pitch better.

8) Dave Wallace - Its been a rough season for Dave. Some of the shine came off his guru status this year. The injury complications I just explained didn't help.

Keep Gausman, Tillman and Gonzalez. Re-sign Chen if you can. I know it will be hard or maybe impossible. Hope for better heath from Wright and Wilson. See what Miranda has to offer. Probably add a starter. Hope that Bundy and Harvey get healthy. Those they might not help at the beginning of 2016, they are important to the future of the O's.

Thanks for the nice overview. This year's starting pitching was by far the biggest disappointment for me. I was bear-ish on the Os' playoffs chances right from the start, but the aspect of our team I worried about LEAST was the starting rotation. I figured Norris would regress a bit, that Ubaldo was still going to be unpredictable, but that Tillman, Chen and Gonzo would provide solid efforts. I also thought Gausman would be in the rotation before the AS break on a permanent basis. Much of this was wrong thinking.

I'm not sure we have a good chance of signing Chen. I hope we do, but it might not be possible. Not signing Cruz was an eye-opener with regard to the Os' wallet capacity (and I only allude to this because I don't think his contract was that bad), and I know the Os history of not signing pitchers to long-term deals. I think they will need to put up 4 years at a minimum to keep him.

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Injures, illness and a lack of conditioning pretty tells the tale of what happen to the O's staff this year.

1) Chen - None of this applies to Chen. He has had a very good year and the fact the the O's don't score for him or the pen gives up leads for him should not diminish what he has accomplished.

2) Bud Norris - Never found his control in ST but then he caught bronchitis and lost a significant amount of weight. He never gained his 2014 form. He also blamed being distracted by free agency.

3) Gonzalez - He had a 3.33 ERA in middle June when he went on the DL with a groin injury. He never pitched to his potential after that. Probably was not 100% after the injury. To be fair I don't think Gonzo's 170 pound frame is built to give the O's 32 starts. His 2014 season of 26 starts is probably about the best we can ask for. He needs some rest during the season. And really 26 starts at a 3.23 ERA is a heck of a good year.

4) The Trifacta. In the dog days of August when the O's needed to dip into their farm system for starter help, the help vanished. The O's traded Zach Davies on July 29th for outfield help because they had Mike Wright and Tyler Wilson. However, Mike Wright pulled a calf muscle on August 1st and went on the DL. Wilson pitches for the O's August 3rd and is optioned. He injures is oblique a few days later and goes on Norfolk's DL. The starting help the O's needed to get through August was gone.

5) Tillman - Do you remember the pictures of Chris at mini camp last off season? He looked out of shape. He did gain weight but that in and of itself is not bad. Something that can help. Maybe not this season though. Chris got married last November and his live changed. Thinking back on the pictures and the weight I have to wonder if his focus on baseball was what it had been in the past when he needed to be conditioning last offseason.

6) Jimenez - It would appear that he is just not that good. No injury here. And I doubt it gets much better. The offseason should probably include trading Jimenez for another bad contract. He O's need better starting pitching.

7) Gausman - The injury earlier this season doesn't seem to be affecting him now. He needs to perfect a 3rd pitch. A lot of potential but he needs to pitch to get experience and he needs to pitch better.

8) Dave Wallace - Its been a rough season for Dave. Some of the shine came off his guru status this year. The injury complications I just explained didn't help.

Keep Gausman, Tillman and Gonzalez. Re-sign Chen if you can. I know it will be hard or maybe impossible. Hope for better heath from Wright and Wilson. See what Miranda has to offer. Probably add a starter. Hope that Bundy and Harvey get healthy. Those they might not help at the beginning of 2016, they are important to the future of the O's.

Wow good point about how Tillman showed up at ST down right fat. Disapointing that you come back a few months removed form the ALCS and are in that bad of shape. Combined with the snarky comments from Davis & Jones about the FO, and the shoulder injury to Hardy and knee injury to Schoop and this team really got off to a bad start.

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