I Think I Would Let Wieters Go

[gfrank]

Does anybody know if there are any rules about trading players that accept the qualifying offer? The worst-case scenario of giving Wieters the qualifying offer is that he accepts it, but couldn't we just trade him to dump the bad contract? Being stuck with that contract is the only reason not to offer that to a player, but catcher is such a tricky position that I'd wager somebody would take Wieters and most of that contract off our hands if it backfired.

I doubt it matters anyway, though, I feel like there are some dumb teams out there that would give Wieters good money based on the widespread misconception about his ability from several years ago. Wieters is kinda like Sandoval, where he's something of a name, even though he honestly isn't a particularly good player. Boras isn't an idiot, so I'm sure he knows that.

[Jonesy10]

He is awful. He literally does nothing well at this point. Doesn't get on base (he doesn't walk or hit), no power, terrible strike out rate, speed? Haha, mediocre defensive catcher, and that's not including that he's a TERRIBLE pitch framer. He's pretty much a lighter hitting, slower Jimmy Paredes at this point with him barely bringing any defensive value at all at a big time defensive position. Of all catchers that have at least 210 PA's, only Brayan Pena has contributed less defensively (according to Fangraphs). He's barely contributed anything (0.3) and that's not counting his awful framing metrics so in all likelihood he's been not just a terrible catcher, but a negative defensive contributor which is pretty hard to do as a catcher.

[ChuckS]

I think without a doubt a Wieters that finishes the season with a <.700 OPS is a Wieters that has a very high probability of accepting a qualifying offer. It may be too big of a risk to take. A lot of people on this board have been very dismissive of this being a possibility, but I think it's time for all to recognize it.

Let's hope he finishes the season strong.

[tntoriole]

That's right, and one reason a QO has never been accepted is that players and/or agents tend to be optimistic, sometimes over-optimistic, about how they'll fare on the open market. I just think Wieters might present a situation where the difficulty of getting a long-term contract is immediately clear.

Yeah that Pollyanna Boras, he has just so misread the market in the past.

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[Babkins]

What happens if (a) we make a qualifying offer to Wieters, (b) he turns it down, and © does not sign with another club until after the (June?) cutoff date next season? Do we still get a draft pick if no team has to forfeit one to sign him?

[webbrick2010]

Hey that's a plausible scenario, and no we wouldn't get the pick, which is why the guys don't sign until after June

[Redskins Rick]

Hey that's a plausible scenario, and no we wouldn't get the pick, which is why the guys don't sign until after June

I thought guys that don't accept the QO, can sign with other teams, but they cant resign back with their original team, until the June deadline as passed.

[Larry18]

I thought guys that don't accept the QO, can sign with other teams, but they cant resign back with their original team, until the June deadline as passed.

Stephen Drew resigned with Boston in May 2014 after rejecting a QO

[UpstateNYfan]

Boras will never let him sign a QO...he hates it and believes it reduces his negotiating power. Some team will sign Wieters believing "The True Wieters" will return two years of rehab.

[Babypowder]

If they were too reserved to offer one to Markakis, there's a good possibility Wieters has played himself out of one too.

Probably on purpose, Boras really hates that system. More evidence of sabotage.

[24fps]

He is awful. He literally does nothing well at this point. Doesn't get on base (he doesn't walk or hit), no power, terrible strike out rate, speed? Haha, mediocre defensive catcher, and that's not including that he's a TERRIBLE pitch framer. He's pretty much a lighter hitting, slower Jimmy Paredes at this point with him barely bringing any defensive value at all at a big time defensive position. Of all catchers that have at least 210 PA's, only Brayan Pena has contributed less defensively (according to Fangraphs). He's barely contributed anything (0.3) and that's not counting his awful framing metrics so in all likelihood he's been not just a terrible catcher, but a negative defensive contributor which is pretty hard to do as a catcher.

He's not awful. According to BBRef's comps he's in the Ramon Hernandez/Kurt Suzuki neighborhood which is serviceable - at around $3.2 to $6.0 million per year. We have two serviceable catchers who won't make that much combined. Wieters will make more that $6.0 million even without a QO which will be a waste of money IMO. I don't see the Orioles offering him a QO, but I do think it's possible that they will try to work something out with him at far more than he's worth which, to me, would be nearly as insane as offering him a QO.

There's simply not a fit here anymore. I understand the impulse for many people (not you) to want to shoehorn him into the lineup somehow, and that might include Buck Showalter, but the 2016 team has bigger concerns.

[DrungoHazewood]

If they were too reserved to offer one to Markakis, there's a good possibility Wieters has played himself out of one too.

I think it's getting less likely they offer one. But I certainly would. I think you play Boras and his ego. Almost no chance he accepts. Markakis might have, but I still would have offered. A 1/16 deal won't kill anybody, especially with so much money coming off the books. They'd be hard pressed to get back to 2015 payroll even if Wieters accepts the QO and they're aggressive in free agency.

[Il BuonO]

I think it's getting less likely they offer one. But I certainly would. I think you play Boras and his ego. Almost no chance he accepts. Markakis might have, but I still would have offered. A 1/16 deal won't kill anybody, especially with so much money coming off the books. They'd be hard pressed to get back to 2015 payroll even if Wieters accepts the QO and they're aggressive in free agency.

Right, the deal in and of itself wouldn't be a backbreaker and it's likely Boras would never allow it.

[24fps]

Boras will never let him sign a QO...he hates it and believes it reduces his negotiating power. Some team will sign Wieters believing "The True Wieters" will return two years of rehab.

Matt Wieters doesn't work for Scott Boras, it's the other way around. I agree that some team is likely to sign Wieters for more than he's worth. Perhaps far more, but I wouldn't be surprised if a lot of other teams are justifiably leery of his injury coupled with the promise that was never fully delivered upon. Maybe his market never gets to the crazy point.

I really worry that the Orioles will do something dumb here.

[Babypowder]

I think it's getting less likely they offer one. But I certainly would. I think you play Boras and his ego. Almost no chance he accepts. Markakis might have, but I still would have offered. A 1/16 deal won't kill anybody, especially with so much money coming off the books. They'd be hard pressed to get back to 2015 payroll even if Wieters accepts the QO and they're aggressive in free agency.

Oh, I agree. I definitely would offer one and would have offered one to Nick too. I just am not sure the Orioles are on the same page as we are. Markakis seemed like a no-brainer to me and they passed. I don't know if they risk the remote change he accepts.