Which stat/ preview book should I buy?

[DREKTUNES]

I have started getting more interested in the stat/ projection end of baseball, and there are a few books I've been looking at. Which one should I get? I'd appreciate the help, as it's new ground for me.

[Flip217]

I'm like you and have only fairly recently tried to wrap my head around statistical analysis. I've enjoyed "Baseball Between the Numbers" by the Baseball Prospectus team, "The Book on The Book" by Bill Felber, and The Bill James Handbook. The first two are more useful (I think) for getting a better idea of how stats can be applied to understanding baseball, the last is a current collection of those stats.

There's also the "Get your Learn On" thread stickied at the top of this forum, which is helpful...

[Why Not?]

I have started getting more interested in the stat/ projection end of baseball, and there are a few books I've been looking at. Which one should I get? I'd appreciate the help, as it's new ground for me.

I have all three of those.

If you want player-by-player, team-by-team analysis going into the season, I think the BP book is the best of the three. There are comments and projections on just about every player that matters and many who don't matter at all.

The Bill James book is interesting (of course), but it focuses on some interesting aspect of a handful of players on each team, while ignoring others. There are also a handful of typical James essays. I'm considering subscribing to his new website.

I wasn't too impressed with the Hardball Times book. The physical quality of the printing was amatuerish and the analysis was a little on light side and a little more fantasy-stats focused than I prefer.

[RVAbird]

"Baseball Between the Numbers" by the BP team is a fantastic place to start. It's readable for both the hard-nosed old school baseball fart for whom VORP is an oft-heard belch sound and the geekiest geek living in his mom's basement researching the baseball-reference database for hilarious ways to prove old#5fan wrong.

[DrungoHazewood]

Before I opened the thread I thought you should buy one or more of BP, HBT, or Bill James. So I guess my answer is "yes".

[Why Not?]

To which THT book are you referring? If you're talking about the Baseball Annual, then you're a tough nut to crack if you didn't like their analysis. If you're referring to the Season Preview, then I'll have to believe you as I haven't read it.

It's the season preview. Even as a THT fan, I think you would also find it somewhat lacking. Just not enough meat in it.

[Why Not?]

Street & Smith's taught me to never buy season preview magazines.

I remember when those were about the best info available. The Hardball Times book, though disappointing, blows those relics out of the water.

[DREKTUNES]

Thanks for the tips, everybody. I think I'll probably end up buying all three, with the BP book starting things off.

[Why Not?]

To which THT book are you referring? If you're talking about the Baseball Annual, then you're a tough nut to crack if you didn't like their analysis. If you're referring to the Season Preview, then I'll have to believe you as I haven't read it.

I have to admit up front that I'm not particularly a fan of BP, whereas I am a fan of THT - so I am definitely biased. The biggest beef I have with BP is that they rarely, if ever, tell you how their stats are derived, whereas THT almost always provides formulas for their stats. I also have to say that I did buy the second BP book, but don't remember being impressed (of course, that was before I was really into baseball stats).

I now remember what else turned me off about the Hardball Times preview book. The Orioles section, which I turned to first naturally, didn't acknowledge Andy McPhail at all. It credited Flanny with the Tejada trade. It also listed Baez as a potential closer in 2008.

If they're that far off-base, I have a hard time trusting other info in the book.