Roch: Rick Adair Talks About Jake

[DrungoHazewood]

Isn't it possible -- and in fact, probable -- that Arrieta just wasn't coached well in Baltimore?

I think the most likely root cause was a combination of factors. He didn't mesh with Adair, the Orioles probably didn't provide the best coaching, Arrieta's injury and reaction to that, a bit more difficult league. It would be amazing if the whole difference between a 7.00 ERA and a sub-2.00 ERA was tweaking a couple things with the coaches. If that was the case you'd see miraculous changes a lot more often. Well, unless you're going to argue that Adair was historically awful on an almost unprecedented scale. Which I'm sure someone here will.

[OsEatAlEast]

This is a really good point, and one I was thinking of when I watched the game last night. Looking at the Pirates lineup, I was amazed they won 98 games. Marte was their "clean-up" hitter and he looks more like a 7 hole hitter to me. The Red Sox have a much better lineup than the Pirates. And Toronto is light years better than them. Now the Cubs are an interesting case because they have a lot of late 80s Tigers types in there....low average guys who crush the ball. Most NL teams aren't built like that on offense.

Thanks! Good post by the way! It's something that's been in the back of my head also for a while. Kind of makes trading with NL teams a sketchy thing in my mind. What I'm meaning to say is maybe stay away from guys who are having career years in the NL.

If I was an AL GM I would use the AL interleague dominance as a tool to lowball a NL team in a trade proposal. "Your guys just aren't going to be as good over here. What else have you got!?"

[DrungoHazewood]

Thanks! Good post by the way! It's something that's been in the back of my head also for a while. Kind of makes trading with NL teams a sketchy thing in my mind. What I'm meaning to say is maybe stay away from guys who are having career years in the NL.

You just need to evaluate things in context. An average team in the AL (say, the .500 Orioles) would be a 86-win team in the AL, based on the AL being a .530ish league compared to the NL. All about properly weighting the strength of schedule. You don't completely discount a player in college football because he played in the ACC instead of the SEC, you just note the level of competition and adjust accordingly.

[Il BuonO]

I don't understand your logic here. How does the fact that Arrieta is pitching much better for the Cubs than the Orioles somehow lead to the conclusion that Arrieta tanked to get out of Baltimore? Isn't it possible -- and in fact, probable -- that Arrieta just wasn't coached well in Baltimore?

Jake was also known to have been followed by black helicopters back and forth to his house on game days. That had to be nerve wracking.

[OsEatAlEast]

You just need to evaluate things in context. An average team in the AL (say, the .500 Orioles) would be a 86-win team in the AL, based on the AL being a .530ish league compared to the NL. All about properly weighting the strength of schedule. You don't completely discount a player in college football because he played in the ACC instead of the SEC, you just note the level of competition and adjust accordingly.

Point taken to be sure. I should have said if you get a guy from the NL it's probably safe to expect a downturn in production in the AL. Like you said also adjust accordingly.

This is where I got my interleague numbers. Kind of a neat little site http://mlbreports.com/mlb-interleague/interleague-2015/

[JR Oriole]

You just need to evaluate things in context. An average team in the AL (say, the .500 Orioles) would be a 86-win team in the AL, based on the AL being a .530ish league compared to the NL. All about properly weighting the strength of schedule. You don't completely discount a player in college football because he played in the ACC instead of the SEC, you just note the level of competition and adjust accordingly.

Very true. The AL, even if you could somehow fully eliminate the effect of the DH, just seems to have more talented offensive players. Which is likely also why you have so many great pitchers with low ERAs on the NL playoff teams. Keuchel and Price look weak compared to the NL dudes on these playoff teams.

I found it ironic last night to see our old friend Joakim Soria pitching for the Pirates. In the AL, he was part of the awful 2014 Tigers bullpen that served to be their undoing....and in fact, he surrendered the infamous Delmon Double. Now this year, he is part of the best bullpen in the NL in Pittsburgh.

[Il BuonO]

I think the most likely root cause was a combination of factors. He didn't mesh with Adair, the Orioles probably didn't provide the best coaching, Arrieta's injury and reaction to that, a bit more difficult league. It would be amazing if the whole difference between a 7.00 ERA and a sub-2.00 ERA was tweaking a couple things with the coaches. If that was the case you'd see miraculous changes a lot more often. Well, unless you're going to argue that Adair was historically awful on an almost unprecedented scale. Which I'm sure someone here will.

No, I think that's right, a combination of factors, but he certainly wasn't given an environment in which his talent could shine. Jake is a cerebral guy and I don't think his natural instinct to evolve with pitches and even his own delivery were allowed. He was placed in a box.

Here's a piece which shows changes he made from just last year to this year. I like that, he's constantly looking for ways to improve.

Last year, Arrieta threw the sinker two ways, it looks like. One approach was to put it on the outside corner for backdoor strikes against righties. The natural arm-side fade of the two-seamer would bring it over the plate for a called strike or a ground ball. The other approach was to throw to their happy zone, low and in, and let the movement take it off the plate for a whiff or a grounder.

This year, Arrieta is just straight blowing it by hitters ? or, at least, he?s added throwing the sinker down the middle as a viable approach. One thing that has happened, perhaps as a result, is that he?s getting more called strikes on the outside part of the plate to righties. He?s moved that backdoor pitch closer to the heart of the zone, so it gets more called strikes.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/jake-arrietas-sweet-sinker/

[Moose Milligan]

If I'm a pitcher drafted by the Orioles, I'd seriously consider not signing and hope to get drafted by another team next year. I'm not saying I'd do it...but I'd consider it.

I think the most likely root cause was a combination of factors. He didn't mesh with Adair, the Orioles probably didn't provide the best coaching, Arrieta's injury and reaction to that, a bit more difficult league. It would be amazing if the whole difference between a 7.00 ERA and a sub-2.00 ERA was tweaking a couple things with the coaches. If that was the case you'd see miraculous changes a lot more often. Well, unless you're going to argue that Adair was historically awful on an almost unprecedented scale. Which I'm sure someone here will.

Jose Bautista made a slight adjustment, look at where he is now.

We can agree that these are the best baseball players in the world, everyone from Trout and Harper down to the 25th guy on the Padres. They're the top 99.5% of players in the world.

Bautista (former Oriole), Arrieta...two guys that made slight adjustments and completely turned their worlds around. Since the pure talent isn't that different across players, I've often wondered what it'd take for that 25th guy on the Padres to turn into an All-Star caliber player. Maybe if he stood up a bit straighter in the batters box and closed off his stance, he could see pitches better. Maybe if that last guy in the Brewers bullpen put more pressure on his index finger he could have a fastball with more run and make himself a stud closer.

I don't think it's completely out of the question. I'm not saying EVERY scrub player could turn into Bautista or Arrieta but the pure talent is there, it's just up to them and the coaches to somehow reach it and enhance it. Hell, look at Rivera...messing with his grip one day and learned a cut fastball that completely changed his career.

Some guys find it, some guys don't. Of course, it's not something easy to find.

[Redskins Rick]

I don't think it's completely out of the question. I'm not saying EVERY scrub player could turn into Bautista or Arrieta but the pure talent is there, it's just up to them and the coaches to somehow reach it and enhance it.

Which is why DD and many other GMs are looking at the McLouths of the world and seeing what diamonds they can find, that others passed over.

[mdbdotcom]

If I'm a pitcher drafted by the Orioles, I'd seriously consider not signing and hope to get drafted by another team next year. I'm not saying I'd do it...but I'd consider it.

Jose Bautista made a slight adjustment, look at where he is now.

Bautista was a Rule 5 pick with the O's in 2004. He then played for the Rays and Royals before becoming a regular for the Pirates in 2006. He never hit as many as 20 home runs in a season until 2010 with the Blue Jays, when he hit 54. So, whatever that slight adjustment was, it took him four teams and six years to make it.

[Stotle]

Or maybe the NL is not as good as the AL. I think the NL has a dearth of middle-ground talent and has for years.

American League has won season series in 2015 (12th straight year) with a record of 168 - 130 (.565) as of now. AL Leads all time series 2517 - 2255 (.527)

So much for NL pitchers hitting being an advantage.

I don't think any of the sub 2 era guys in the NL would be so in the AL.

Arrieta could add 1.5 runs to his ERA and would still lead the Orioles staff.

[Redskins Rick]

Bautista was a Rule 5 pick with the O's in 2004. He then played for the Rays and Royals before becoming a regular for the Pirates in 2006. He never hit as many as 20 home runs in a season until 2010 with the Blue Jays, when he hit 54. So, whatever that slight adjustment was, it took him four teams and six years to make it.

As much as we dislike Cito for his handling of Mussina.

Many give Cito credit for helping Jose and fixing his swing.

[JR Oriole]

If I'm a pitcher drafted by the Orioles, I'd seriously consider not signing and hope to get drafted by another team next year. I'm not saying I'd do it...but I'd consider it.

I'll take it a step further....if I am a parent and my son is going to get drafted, I would really hope that someone other than the Orioles would draft him. I simply don't trust that they are good enough at their jobs to help my son maximize his potential. I would actually be scared for him. This sounds extreme of course, and the Arrieta situation is probably the most extreme turnaround that we have ever seen simply as a result of changing teams, but there is a huge sample size of evidence which shows that starting pitcher development is a massive problem for this organization.

[OsEatAlEast]

Arrieta could add 1.5 runs to his ERA and would still lead the Orioles staff.

I just think people should take it with a grain of salt when looking at the numbers.

[Il BuonO]

I agree with your analysis, but I don't agree that Jake is cerebral. I think he is a bulldog and an athletic specimen, but not cerebral.

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I remember him being tagged with that moniker early on, but if you remember his mannerisms on the mound they didn't suggest that of someone who could push through anything. He needed to be steered in the right direction not completely controlled.

To me, his workout regimen, his work on delivery and his reworking of his own pitch arsenal speaks to someone who constantly is examining on how to improve. That takes a lot of time, effort and thought.