Camden Depot: Overrated, Expensive, Central And South American Prospects

[DrungoHazewood]

Except your kids (Angelos) knows where you hid the can and takes whatever is in there at the end of the year.

I have never seen evidence that money saved is money that is made available later.

Right. I was going to say something along those lines, but we really just don't know what's being done with money that theoretically could be allocated to international talent. Is it coming out of the payroll? Is it different? Does Angelos give Duquette a budget for non-payroll items, or development?

[hoosiers]

This seems to be a pretty common theme that's crossed multiple GMs and front office personnel. It appears that Angelos is very averse to paying for risky amateur talent. It was actually worse 10 years ago when there were no restrictions on international spending and the O's spent almost nothing and said it was because it was inefficient. So the Yanks were getting a 10% success rate out of their tens or hundreds of millions of dollars while the O's got near 0% success out of their $2.75. And the talent gap widened.

The risks are certainly real. The Reds GM lost his job trusting Jose Rijo to set up an academy. There are numerous instances of international prospects who lied about their ages and who also took supplements. There are also instances of scouts recommending high bonuses only to receive kickbacks. I understand being risk averse in this case to a certain extent.

But MLB has stepped in to verify ages and the league works to eliminate other risks.

When our scouts discover a Miguel Gonzalez, an Eduardo Rodriguez and a Jon Schoop, the payoffs are extraordinary relative to the acquisition costs.

And we get Forbes telling us annually how the Os are among the most profitable teams in baseball and how MASN was a tremendous cash cow for many years. And yet we won't dip our toes in the deep end of the international talent pool because the return is sub-par and we don't appear to jump in with two feet (or more) in the areas of international spend where the better returns are. Yet the Twins, Rays and Athletics and other smaller market teams do allocate their $ to the deep end. Very frustrating.

[Can_of_corn]

I really don't like grouping Gonzalez with Rodriguez and Schoop.

He went to school in the US and was in the minors for years before he was playing in Mexico.

Claiming him as an International signing would be like the O's releasing Gamboa, him playing in Mexico and a team signing him next spring. He was pitching in AAA for Boston the year before the O's "discovered" him.

[weams]

A couple thoughts:

- It has been posted here and discussed ad nauseum in the past that the top of the international market is a relatively weak return. That is not news that $1M-$3M guys carry a higher risk profile, but let's be clear. That risk/return is still better than free agent major leaguers. A weaker return on these high $ players does not mean we should vacate that market.

- the better international returns are clearly at the bottom (under $250K) and middle of the market ($250k-$750k). I have seen NO EVIDENCE that the Os are investing disproportionately more than other teams at this higher return level of international prospects. If the Os did spend more internationally than other teams at the bottom and middle of the market, that would be excellent news, but I am highly skeptical. By appearances then, the Os generally match the spend of other teams at the bottom and possibly the middle of the market, but then cede the top of the market to other teams. How exactly are we supposed to get ahead in that scenario other than a claim that we will get a better return on our international $?

- the odd thing about those clamoring to the truth about the better return on the US draft need to explain to me then the benefits of our FO giving up high US draft picks for free agents (Ubaldo, Cruz) and selling off an average relief pitcher in Webb with a high US draft pick? Those posting above would seem to have a double standard here when it comes to supporting the current front office - let's avoid high $ international free agents, but sign US free agents with an historically weaker return while forfeiting high draft picks (the best return)!!! Comical. And, the surest way to end up with a weak farm team - our front office will not spend on high $ international prospects because of the poor return to get the third round talent cited in the article while at the same time forfeiting and trading US draft picks!

- Yet, our FO does decide to spend high six figures on international Cuban free agents at the bottom of that food chain. It would seem to me some perverted logic to spend that $ on mid-20 something weaker Cuban players while avoiding a reputed top 30 international prospect.

The top of the international market has a poor return. It is still a return better than signing the Jay Paytons and Garrett Atkins of the world. And, if a team is not going to spend at the top of the international signing bonus area, then show that we have invested much heavier than other teams in the segments of the international market with better returns. Or show that we have a better international scouting structure than other teams though most threads in the past five years on international scouting show us to be deficient in this area.

Actually. Major league free agents usually contribute. They just are a poor return on investment. If you are looking to grow your own a modest investment in infrastructure and older internationals along with smart drafting and resisting giving away top end picks is a better formula for the all to middle segment.

[DrungoHazewood]

The risks are certainly real. The Reds GM lost his job trusting Jose Rijo to set up an academy. There are numerous instances of international prospects who lied about their ages and who also took supplements. There are also instances of scouts recommending high bonuses only to receive kickbacks. I understand being risk averse in this case to a certain extent.

But MLB has stepped in to verify ages and the league works to eliminate other risks.

When our scouts discover a Miguel Gonzalez, an Eduardo Rodriguez and a Jon Schoop, the payoffs are extraordinary relative to the acquisition costs.

And we get Forbes telling us annually how the Os are among the most profitable teams in baseball and how MASN was a tremendous cash cow for many years. And yet we won't dip our toes in the deep end of the international talent pool because the return is sub-par and we don't appear to jump in with two feet (or more) in the areas of international spend where the better returns are. Yet the Twins, Rays and Athletics and other smaller market teams do allocate their $ to the deep end. Very frustrating.

In the time since the Reds' GM was fired for that probably 15 GMs have been fired for their team's poor performances. Anyway, wasn't that Bowden? Pretty sure he was fired for a long list of crimes and misdemeanors. But, yes, very frustrating that it appears the Orioles' ownership is directing this (mis)allocation of resources.

[DrungoHazewood]

Actually. Major league free agents usually contribute. They just are a poor return on investment. If you are looking to grow your own a modest investment in infrastructure and older internationals along with smart drafting and resisting giving away top end picks is a better formula for the all to middle segment.

But the scales are all off. A top international guy is $3-4M. That's buying less than one win in free agency. Chris Davis will be paid as much in the first year of his new contract as it will take to sign 5, 6, 7 high-dollar international amateur players for multiple years.

[DrungoHazewood]

I really don't like grouping Gonzalez with Rodriguez and Schoop.

He went to school in the US and was in the minors for years before he was playing in Mexico.

Claiming him as an International signing would be like the O's releasing Gamboa, him playing in Mexico and a team signing him next spring. He was pitching in AAA for Boston the year before the O's "discovered" him.

He pitched in the US affiliated minors for seven years before the O's acquired him as a minor league free agent. You might as well claim that Fernando Valenzuela's 1993 stint in Baltimore was a coup for their international scouts.

[El Gordo]

In the time since the Reds' GM was fired for that probably 15 GMs have been fired for their team's poor performances. Anyway, wasn't that Bowden? Pretty sure he was fired for a long list of crimes and misdemeanors. But, yes, very frustrating that it appears the Orioles' ownership is directing this (mis)allocation of resources.

Former Reds GM and Marge's lap dog. http://www.nytimes.com/2009/03/02/sports/baseball/02bowden.html

[BradyBunch]

But the scales are all off. A top international guy is $3-4M. That's buying less than one win in free agency. Chris Davis will be paid as much in the first year of his new contract as it will take to sign 5, 6, 7 high-dollar international amateur players for multiple years.

While true.. Spending is limited in the international market (not cuba if meeting certain rules or japan, which has it's own issues). That means you blow your slotted money plus (go over the limit) you are gonna be limited in what you can sign in a two year period (maximum penalty) and get taxed for it. Just 15% over your bonus pool.. you are gonna pay 100% tax on that 15% and if it's more then 15%.. then it's 100% on that too.

Orioles pool bonus is $2,002,900 for 2015-2016 (current period). That means a $3-4m guy not from Cuba or Japan is gonna cost about $5m plus limited ability to sign over the next years.. that's just one player. If tomorrow the Orioles sign 5 guys from the international pool and offer $3-4m.. that's $15 to $20m.. and the Orioles are gonna end up paying in total for that one sign period.. close to $28m to $36m in "tax" to the league plus not being able to sign for the next two years anybody over $300,000.

Redsox's got digged hard signing Yoan Moncada. Fact is.. they put $63m in this player and hasn't played one game and that's just the cost of the signing bonus and tax.

The underlying problem here is the international system is screwed up. Team can just sign and sign and sign if they are willing to pay the tax. It's why the big market teams have no problem with it. It's also why the Orioles refuse to break the bank on a propsect. Why pay a tax and drop so much money on a guy who hasn't played a lick of minor league ball or major league?

MLB has to fix the issue. Just as it has to fix the stupid posting fee rules of Japanese players.

I guess.. it comes down to this for me. If you have to pay a bonus to player which is greater then the 1st pick of the MLB draft.. there is a massive problem with how the system is ran. There has to be an international draft in December during winter meetings which is slot just like the MLB draft.

[BradyBunch]

These are very vague and general concepts. "Modest investment in infrastructure"? Smart drafting as opposed to dumb drafting? Tough to find anyone to argue with that one. Older internationals? How does that look so far? Urrutia and Alvarez do not look like ML regulars. The consensus was that these two were not ML regulars when we signed them. I have nothing against signing players like that for 775K. We have ignored the consensus Cuban talents and the consensus top Dominican prospects.

Be honest. If the Orioles went all out and signed 3 big ticket Dominicans next signing period you'd be singing their praises.

And be honest.. if the Orioles did that and raised ticket prices by 25%.. you wouldn't be okay with that.

[Can_of_corn]

While true.. Spending is limited in the international market (not cuba if meeting certain rules or japan, which has it's own issues). That means you blow your slotted money plus (go over the limit) you are gonna be limited in what you can sign in a two year period (maximum penalty) and get taxed for it. Just 15% over your bonus pool.. you are gonna pay 100% tax on that 15% and if it's more then 15%.. then it's 100% on that too.

Orioles pool bonus is $2,002,900 for 2015-2016 (current period). That means a $3-4m guy not from Cuba or Japan is gonna cost about $5m plus limited ability to sign over the next years.. that's just one player. If tomorrow the Orioles sign 5 guys from the international pool and offer $3-4m.. that's $15 to $20m.. and the Orioles are gonna end up paying in total for that one sign period.. close to $28m to $36m in "tax" to the league plus not being able to sign for the next two years anybody over $300,000.

Redsox's got digged hard signing Yoan Moncada. Fact is.. they put $63m in this player and hasn't played one game and that's just the cost of the signing bonus and tax.

The underlying problem here is the international system is screwed up. Team can just sign and sign and sign if they are willing to pay the tax. It's why the big market teams have no problem with it. It's also why the Orioles refuse to break the bank on a propsect. Why pay a tax and drop so much money on a guy who hasn't played a lick of minor league ball or major league?

MLB has to fix the issue. Just as it has to fix the stupid posting fee rules of Japanese players.

I guess.. it comes down to this for me. If you have to pay a bonus to player which is greater then the 1st pick of the MLB draft.. there is a massive problem with how the system is ran. There has to be an international draft in December during winter meetings which is slot just like the MLB draft.

I pushed hard for Moncada.

[Aristotelian]

But the scales are all off. A top international guy is $3-4M. That's buying less than one win in free agency. Chris Davis will be paid as much in the first year of his new contract as it will take to sign 5, 6, 7 high-dollar international amateur players for multiple years.

Yes, but going by the list in the article you need to sign 10 to 15 top international amateurs before one of them pays off. And probably 100 or more elite (but not top) internationals. Those dollars add up too.

The fact that we have Schoop is a decent coup.

I do agree with hoosiers that selling the comp pick with Webb was just plain inexcusable.

[Can_of_corn]

Yes, but going by the list in the article you need to sign 10 to 15 top international amateurs before one of them pays off. And probably 100 or more elite (but not top) internationals. Those dollars add up too.

The fact that we have Schoop is a decent coup.

I do agree with hoosiers that selling the comp pick with Webb was just plain inexcusable.

None of us are arguing that.

[BradyBunch]

Is that the only choice?

Simply, yes. You are comparing a draft to a free for all signing system. MLB draft is a slotted system in which amount being spent is capped. So you either raise ticket prices or you cut payroll. Money has to come from somewhere.

We didn't sign our second round pick this year in he draft. If he had signed, would the team have raised ticket prices?

Apples and Oranges. MLB draft bonus is accounted for as the rise is predictable and accounted for. Each year TV money increases (national and local deals) cover it 10xs over.

The Tampa Bay Rays are outspending us down there.

Yes, and the Rays have overspent 2014-2015 and had to trade for slots (Ramsey to Marlins for $1m in slot money) and ended up paying taxes on their two other signings last year. In the current period Rays have signed nobody over the $300,000 bonus limited under the pentalty rules and the same rules will apply next year. Rays wanted Adrian Rondon (which cost them two years of other players they could have signed). They see Adrian Rondon as their future as Longoria gets older. So they were willing to shatter their bonus pool last year and deal with two years of penalties.

Orioles signed Jomar Reyes for $350,000. Didn't break the bank. Jomar Reyes will be in the majors before Rondon.

[BradyBunch]

Yes, but going by the list in the article you need to sign 10 to 15 top international amateurs before one of them pays off. And probably 100 or more elite (but not top) internationals. Those dollars add up too.

The fact that we have Schoop is a decent coup.

I do agree with hoosiers that selling the comp pick with Webb was just plain inexcusable.

Orioles pulled off a few of coup if you wan to call it that.. ERod and Schoop were signed young and the Orioles developed them. Schoop has been a 7 year project. Erod a 4 year project.