Camden Depot: Overrated, Expensive, Central And South American Prospects

[weams]

These are very vague and general concepts. "Modest investment in infrastructure"? Smart drafting as opposed to dumb drafting? Tough to find anyone to argue with that one. Older internationals? How does that look so far? Urrutia and Alvarez do not look like ML regulars. The consensus was that these two were not ML regulars when we signed them. I have nothing against signing players like that for 775K. We have ignored the consensus Cuban talents and the consensus top Dominican prospects.

Be honest. If the Orioles went all out and signed 3 big ticket Dominicans next signing period you'd be singing their praises.

I believe that we have spent more on our internal staff and structure. Some fairly expensive top advisers. Some fairly expensive staff member. That is a specific as I'll get there.

We needed to draft better and brought in a scouting director who I believe is superior to last two. Smarter. I won't call the others dumb.

Urrutia and Alvarez have paid more MLB dividends already than the aggregate of imaginary 16 year old investment would have. I do, know we should have signed Sano. I do believe we will find a gem or two in our latest round of signings.

You know I don't care how the money is spent. Or how much there is. I wish that we had all the good players we have today and had four or five expensive kids in the pipeline. And when they crashed and burned I would be sad like I am for Bundy and Hunter. Like I was for all of our failed prospects.

I sure would not change my turn that waiting for the international draft is the smarter position than investing heavily in chasing the last year or two crop of the overpaid uber 16 year olds.

[DrungoHazewood]

Why pay a tax and drop so much money on a guy who hasn't played a lick of minor league ball or major league?

Because you think he's going to be really good.

MLB has to fix the issue. Just as it has to fix the stupid posting fee rules of Japanese players.

You have to find some way to adequately compensate the team that has the Japanese player under contract. If you don't want to pay posting fees then only sign Japanese free agents. I'm sure most here wouldn't like, say, Schoop getting an offer from the Seibu Lions and jumping his contract with the Orioles without very substantial compensation.

[BradyBunch]

The earliest I can see Baseball America keeping track of the top prospects/signings in Latin America is 2007. Keep in mind that even most of those players would be 24-25 right now. So, obviously ones signed in more recent years are still in the lower minors.

This is just one year and I would guess it was actually a better than average year in the supplemental round with Todd Fraizer and Josh Donaldson among the recognizable names. Even with those hits, you'll notice a ton of misses in the June Amatuer draft at this point.

Here are the top 31 signing bonus from Latin America until 2009.

Miggy got $1.6m in 1999. Josh Hamilton got a $3.9m bonus as 1st draft pick in 1999. So by your theory the Marlins didn't pay enough for Miggy.

[DrungoHazewood]

Urrutia and Alvarez have paid more MLB dividends already than the aggregate of imaginary 16 year old investment would have.

You'd only have to hit on one 16-year-old to blow Urrutia's and Alvarez' fraction of one career win out of the water. If Urrutia and Alvarez are the baseline you could argue that 6-year minor league free agents are a much better bet than 25-year-old Cubans and we can start ignoring Cuba.

[BradyBunch]

Because you think he's going to be really good.

At 16 years old or the Cuba rules.. seriously? There is no way to figure out if a player is gonna be stud at 16 or even older in Latin American baseball. Age is lied about all the time down there. Even the DNA test they do to verify age can be beaten by trading IDs with others.

Nationals signed Carlos Alvarez who they tought was Esmailyn Gonzalez and 4 years younger. Over that and skimming money from bonus payments, Jim Bowden and Joes Rijo were "fired".

It's literally the wild west down there when it comes to the law. For the right price you can become a new person and a few years younger. Roberto Hernandez became Fausto Carmona. Rafael Furcal lied about his age. Miguel Tejada and Bartolo Colon both lied about age. Hell even Hal McRae did..

I wouldn't be surpirsed if some of these Cuban guys will get nicked for lying about age at some point as well. Stupid money will get you, your agent and your family to do stupid things.

You have to find some way to adequately compensate the team that has the Japanese player under contract. If you don't want to pay posting fees then only sign Japanese free agents. I'm sure most here wouldn't like, say, Schoop getting an offer from the Seibu Lions and jumping his contract with the Orioles without very substantial compensation.

I wasn't heading in that fashion but rather get rid of the ability to sign contracted players or force a standard such as in the MLB where it's typically trades that take place with a limit in total comp. For example; Tanaka... Yankee need to trade players and give up trade picks (value of pick would be payment) and Yankees would lose those picks in MLB draft.

[BradyBunch]

Maybe you should explain my own theory to me. I didn't know I had one.

You are the one complaining about the lack of spending in the international market. If it was 2015 and the Orioles signed Miggy and was under the total bonus.. you would complain.

[Can_of_corn]

That's a theory? The Marlins signed Miggy to one of the higher bonuses at the time. What's your point? You want to hang your hat on Jomar Reyes to prove that the Dominican system is working? I hope he turns into a stud. Let's be objective though. He was rated the #13 rated prospect in the SAL (hardly studly) and will have to move to 1B eventually, from all reports. His bat might be special. It might not.

I have read some stuff that says he might stick at CO.

[weams]

Because you think he's going to be really good.

You have to find some way to adequately compensate the team that has the Japanese player under contract. If you don't want to pay posting fees then only sign Japanese free agents. I'm sure most here wouldn't like, say, Schoop getting an offer from the Seibu Lions and jumping his contract with the Orioles without very substantial compensation.

Honest? Anyone that wants to play in an inferior international league probably can. They don't want to. And their union doesn't wither.

[weams]

I have read some stuff that says he might stick at CO.

I have too. But the hamate might be an issue. You can never tell when there are so young.

[weams]

You'd only have to hit on one 16-year-old to blow Urrutia's and Alvarez' fraction of one career win out of the water. If Urrutia and Alvarez are the baseline you could argue that 6-year minor league free agents are a much better bet than 25-year-old Cubans and we can start ignoring Cuba.

Miranda may start in the Orioles rotation next season.

[BradyBunch]

The amount that is allocated for the June amateur draft changes each year depending on draft position. Their is a fixed ceiling on the international pool as well. The Orioles know full well what they can spend in the International pool and decide not to. They don't budget for it. Do they spend that money elsewhere? Let's assume they do. Then yes, I would spend 2M less in another area. You say apples and oranges. If they had money allocated for the 2015 June draft and then dididn't spend that 800K on Hughes, why wouldn't that money be available to sign 800K of Latin prospects?

Yes, it does.. but you are LIMITED TO THAT AMOUNT. So come June 2016, the Orioles and every other team in MLB will know their total months before the draft.

Orioles do spend money in the international market. In 2013/2014 the Orioles spent $980,000.. in that period the Orioles signed 16 players. That doesn't include Alvarez which was a $800,000 signing.

That's something you don't seem to understand.. you can't comingle funds for international pool and draft money. If you fail to sign a MLB draft pick, you lose that money. You can't transfer that money elsewhere and call it even stevens. So if the Orioles spend $900,000 on a couple of players in a $2m spending limit set by MLB but had a shot at signing a top tier guy for $2.6m the Orioles can't say "We didn't go over the limit by $1.5m but rather $700,000 because we just allocated the non-sign bonus from the draft to the international pool, so we shouldn't have to pay $1.5m tax". MLB front office would laugh at them (and you) and take the money from TV money or balance (revenue sharing) payments to the Orioles.

The only way any team a team can limit their tax liability if they are over signing pool bonus is trade for pool money. Like the Rays did to limit their tax liability in signing Rondon.

No one is against the 350K prosepcts like Reyes. I actually am advocating for more like this. The Rays can afford to pay taxes by going over the limit but we can't. Interesting. I'm not saying that you can't get good prospects in the 350K-500K range. As Hoosiers said, this is probably where we should be concentrating our efforts. As far as I can tell, we have signed not one player in that price range during the current signing period.

Rays couldn't afford it.. Rays trade a player for to Marlins for International bonus slots to limit their liability on taxes. Rays were still over but they were over just enough to get dinged but not enough to say "Wow! What a huge tax hit".. It was less then $1m in tax. Ray can spend alot more then they do in what they get TV and Revenue sharing so don't buy into they don't have money. Their entire payroll is paid for by that sharing with money left over. They along with the Marlins and Astros cheat people out of money all the time.

That $350k to $500k is between 4 and 6 players signed (this signing period). That's not depth but rather limits you in developing talent. On the other hand the Orioles in 2013/2014 spent $900,000 and got 16 players to work with.

Baseball is and will always be a numbers game. 16 international signings is better then 4 to 6 signings a year. While skills might be better with those $350k to $500k players. The Org needs to be successful 25% of the time at least to make it worth while. With 16 players, all you need is to be successful 10% of the time.

It's why signing a Schoop or ERod who were off the radar and much less then those magic number you want.. is proving a point. To build depth and talent you need as many coming thru your system.

[weams]

Anything is possible but what is likely or reasonable? He was 26 years old last year, put up decent but hardly eye popping numbers in AA. 45 innings, 18 walks, 3.60 ERA. What is possible and what is reasonable? It's not reasonable to assume he'll be a solid major league starting pitcher based on anything objective.

It is possible that every 16 year old Dominican will become Miguel Sano.

[BradyBunch]

That's a theory? The Marlins signed Miggy to one of the higher bonuses at the time. What's your point? You want to hang your hat on Jomar Reyes to prove that the Dominican system is working? I hope he turns into a stud. Let's be objective though. He was rated the #13 rated prospect in the SAL (hardly studly) and will have to move to 1B eventually, from all reports. His bat might be special. It might not.

No, my theory is you wouldn't be happy until the Orioles broke the bank on a non-prove 16 year old or Cuban player. You want the Orioles to spend stupid money in HOPES a player can adjust or grow into his very friendly scouting report and then the comparisons by someone who gets paid a % of what he's signed for (the trainer).

Miggy's bonus was middle of the road in reality and during that year (1999) wasn't the biggest. Wily Mo Pe?a got a $2.5m bonus from the Yankees.

I am not hanging my hat on anybody. Jomar Reyes is what the Orioles signed and it's actually a good signing compared to others when looking at value. Jomar Reyes is gonna either end up playing 1b for the Orioles in the future or is gonna be part of a trade that gets Orioles something needed. Btw, look at some of the ages of the guys who are ranked higher then him in SALLY ball. Jomar Reyes is a young guy in that league at 18. There is a handful of 18 y/rs on that list. It's even small when looking if they are pitcher or fielder. He's easily top 3 in that league when accounting for age factor.

[BradyBunch]

It is possible that every 16 year old Dominican will become Miguel Sano.

It's possible a 16 year old in a professional system for 6 years can become something. ERod was nothing but a paper weight with a Jimmy Keyes fastball when he was signed.

[weams]

It's possible a 16 year old in a professional system for 6 years can become something. ERod was nothing but a paper weight with a Jimmy Keyes fastball when he was signed.

You are wrong. He could not weigh down a paper at that point.