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SI: Tom Verducci Figured Out Price's Pitch Tipping - MUST READ

weams

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weams Hangout Grand Counsel

weams

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Something caught my eye in the Gordon at-bat. Price threw Gordon a 2-and-2 changeup that was over the plate but down. Gordon barely flinched at it. The fact that it was over the plate and not off the plate?it looked more like a strike, which makes it much harder to dismiss?told me Gordon wasn't the least bit fooled. (Price would then throw two fastballs, one a good one away that Gordon fouled and another one over the heart of the plate that he ripped for his double.)

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I replayed the inning in my head. Moustakas was all over a 2-and-2 changeup from Price - a good pitch that was down and away but that didn't fool him either. Wait?how many times did Price even throw a 2-and-2 changeup to a lefthanded hitter all year, as he had done to both Gordon and Moustakas? The answer was just 10.

Then I thought about the Hosmer at-bat: a 1-and-1 changeup down and away that he also hit while firmly on balance. How many times did Price throw a 1-and-1 changeup to a lefty this year? Another rarity: just 16 times.

So now I had three lefthanded hitters batting against a lefthanded pitcher in counts when a changeup could not be expected and yet all three of them were on balance for the pitch.

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The next day I looked at the tape. Pitching from the stretch when he threw a changeup, Price would take an extra deep breath, one where you could see his shoulders shrug, and he would hold his set a beat longer. I didn't have access to the preferred camera angle on every pitch, but from the small sample I saw it appeared to me the Royals knew the changeup was coming when Price was in the stretch. Days later, as the series resumed in Toronto, I ran my theory past two Royals sources. Both confirmed it: Price tipped his changeup - maybe not 100% of the time, but enough for Kansas City to buy in.

There had been rumors about Price tipping his pitches when he faced Texas in the Division Series. A Toronto source told me then that such rumors sometimes pop up, and that the Blue Jays heard that Price had been tipping his pitchers earlier this season when he was pitching for Detroit, but - we looked into it and didn't see anything.?

Conroy and Gibson are both 55-year-old former journeyman major league pitchers and now advance scouts for Kansas City. They had been watching the Blue Jays exclusively since late August. They knew every tendency about Toronto, such as how Josh Donaldson had become a more aggressive hitter as he chased Mike Trout in the AL MVP race; or how Kevin Pillar and Ben Revere had stopped being aggressive stealing bases down the stretch, perhaps simply to let Donaldson, Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion swing the bats; or exactly how Price threw his changeup out of the stretch.

There was another oddity about that inning that needed an explanation: the stolen base attempt by Hosmer. Price had thrown 236 1/3 innings without allowing a stolen base this year. Only two runners had even attempted one because Price was so quick to home plate. So why would Hosmer be running when he was the potential tying run and there were no outs? First base coach Rusty Kuntz told him, -Run,- and so he did, but why take that chance against a pitcher with such fast times to the plate?

Again, this is where Conroy and Gibson come in. One of the fundamentals of compiling an advance scouting report is to break down how a pitcher defends the running game, especially when it comes to his pickoff move. You take all the pickoff throws by a pitcher and look for patterns. The scouts began with this simple question: does he double up on his pickoff throws? That is, does he throw two times in a row to first base?

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But something odd quickly became apparent when they started this work: Price had thrown to first base only five times all year. The only pattern was that he almost never threw to first base.

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The next order of business was to find a clue in his delivery to home plate. If the scouts found one?and coupled with the fact Price almost never threw to first base?the Royals could run on his first movement, which allows runners a much faster jump. They quickly found what they were searching for: When Price lifted his right foot, the movement that starts a delivery from a lefthander's stretch position, he pointed his toes down. Most pitchers pick up their foot with the toes pointed at first base. Conroy and Gibson were convinced that Price?s toes-down style made it highly unlikely he was in position to then step to first base for a pickoff throw.

And that's why Kuntz could tell Hosmer -run- against a pitcher who hadn't allowed a steal all year, and why Alex Rios stole a base against Price in Game 6 - by going on his first move. It was brilliant advance work.

http://www.si.com/mlb/2015/10/24/royals-blue-jays-alcs-clinch-pennant

If we can send a camera to Pluto, and build the Stuxnet, we can do anything...

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weams Hangout Grand Counsel

weams

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Incredible article! Now I'm wondering what those scouts might have dug up on the Orioles last year.

I assume that this level of expertise is available throughout MLB. We know what Toronto is able to accomplish up in the terror dome. I do think it requires somewhat younger players with more limited egos to fully buy in to some of the internal analytics that appear to be driving the game forward. Papi is not going to listen to any of this. Hanley is not looking for help from others...

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Can_of_corn Hangout Grand Counsel

Can_of_corn

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I am also sure that even though not zeroday, that some pitchers absolutely freak out if they try to do ANYTHING different. Wonder what the Mets saw about Jake.

That Murphy was in the midst of an out of his mind hot streak?

Murphy could get wood on a BB fired out of a railgun right now.

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mrpennybags Major Leaguer Cup of Coffee

mrpennybags

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I assume that this level of expertise is available throughout MLB. We know what Toronto is able to accomplish up in the terror dome. I do think it requires somewhat younger players with more limited egos to fully buy in to some of the internal analytics that appear to be driving the game forward. Papi is not going to listen to any of this. Hanley is not looking for help from others...

Good point. I'd love for a baseball writer with connections to anonymously poll GMs and scouts about which teams are best and worst at this level of scouting (with anecdotes.) I can't imagine teams succeed as dramatically as KC's team did during this series often.

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Drifter Major Leaguer Cup of Coffee

Drifter

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Over the last 10 years or so, I have grumbled to myself (and sometimes my wife) that it 'appears' the O's have NO advanced scouting. If they do, is it someone sitting in their recliner watching Sportscenter? Or, are some of the younger players just not listening, and are in fact ..uncoachable?

Yes, it's easy for me to sit here and second guess what has already happened in-game, but I can't get over how many times the O's hitters are swinging for the fence on a 3-1 or 2-0 count. Some teams refuse to give in and will throw off-speed, as it's a newer way to approach the game.

That's the allure of baseball for me, the chess matches that go on throughout a game is always fun to watch.

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