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SP Trade Market Primer: Who could the O's go after?


CaptainRedbeard

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It's much easier to discuss FA than trade targets, because we know the FA available and it's not always clear the players available via trade. I'll take my best shot at guessing who might be available, mostly by looking at pitchers on teams not expected to contend or who may otherwise have been rumored as available. I've broken them down into tiers based on projected fWAR with Steamer projections (w/ ages based on OD 2016). Maybe if I'm feeling ambitious I'll edit this over the offseason as rumors start flying around.

#1's - Projected WAR 3.5+

Carlos Carrasco: 5.1

Age: 29

Contract Status: 3yrs + 2 options (4.5, 6.5, 8, 9, 9.5).

Tyson Ross: 4.2

Age: 28

Contract Status: Arb 3 (was super 2), projected $10.0MM. Team control through 2017.

Stephen Strasburg: 4.2

Age: 27

Contract Status: Arb 3, projected $10.5MM. FA after 2016.

Sonny Gray: 3.5

Age: 26

Contract Status: Pre-arb 3. Team control through 2019.

Hard to imagine the Orioles have the pieces to get any of these guys. Carrasco, Ross, and Strasburg have all been rumored to be on the market, and Gray is my speculation since Billy Beane is the GM least attached to any of his players and may be looking at a full-scale rebuild.

I'd give most of our minor league system for Carrasco and Gray considering their contract status, and definitely a multiple good pieces for Ross or Strasburg. I would be stunned if the Orioles could pull a deal for any of these guys though, they're certain to be in high demand and are unlikely to be dealt at all.

#2/#3's - Projected WAR 2.5-3.4

Danny Salazar: 3.4

Age: 26

Contract Status: Pre-arb 2 (service 1.162). Team control through 2020.

Jose Quintana: 3.2

Age: 27

Contract Status: 3yrs + 2 options (3.8, 6, 8.35, 10.5, 10.5).

James Shields: 3.0

Age: 34

Contract Status: 3yrs + option (21, 21, 21, 16).

Andrew Cashner: 3.0

Age:29

Contract Status: Arb 3, projected $7.0MM. FA after 2016.

Patrick Corbin: 2.6

Age: 26

Contract Status: Arb 1, projected $2.3MM. Team control through 2018.

Jorge de la Rosa: 2.5

Age: 34

Contract Status: 1 yr, $12.5MM. FA after 2016.

The Indians were frequently rumored at the deadline for shopping their SP. They have a very deep staff and may be willing to part with Salazar, but definitely at a high price. He and Quintana are very borderline for the top section - We probably don't have the pieces to get them considering their skill and favorable contract status.

Shields has a terrible contract, in the territory of pure salary dump despite still being an effective pitcher. He's not a bad target if we decide we have the money available. Cashner would cost more, but the Padres are facing a potential "blow it up" offseason and he could be in the realm of pitcher we could afford, with his injury history and single year left of control keeping his price down.

Corbin is a very talented young pitcher coming off a successful return from TJS. He would probably have a high price tag and the D-Backs likely fashion themselves contenders and won't want to deal him, but if he's available I like him a lot. De la Rosa has been linked to the Orioles before, but the Rockies have always asked for the moon for him. Who knows if they'll ever get reasonable with a year left on his deal - they will probably hold him until the deadline at least.

#4/#5's - Projected WAR 1-2.4

Jesse Chavez: 2.2

Age: 32

Contract Status: Arb 3, projected $4.7MM. FA after 2016.

Josh Tomlin: 1.8

Age: 31

Contract Status: Arb 2, projected $3.1MM. Team control through 2017.

Matt Garza: 1.4

Age: 32

Contract Status: 2yrs + vesting option (12.5, 12.5, 13).

Scott Feldman: 1.2

Age: 33

Contract Status: 2yrs (10,8).

Pretty uninspiring stuff. I had a hard time finding guys that even fit these specifications, as most of the pitchers falling into this WAR category are young guys whose teams are invested in them or are so bad they're not even worth talking about.

Chavez and Tomlin are moderately interesting. Chavez has made a successful transition to SP from the pen, and Tomlin has always been a great K/BB guy soft-tosser coming off a very good partial season. Depending on the price, they'd be decent upgrades at the back end of our rotation.

I'm not sure the Orioles have the payroll to take on Garza or Feldman even for free, and they certainly aren't moving the needle much over our current options.

Summary

For me, the only guy on here who is realistically attainable and interesting enough to be excited over is Cashner. Beyond that, it's pretty much all guys who are too good for us to afford, too expensive for us to afford, or not good enough to really want. We may very well be stuck with the FA market or try dealing for somebody unexpectedly available that I've overlooked.

And for those interested, here's the list of projected WAR by Steamer for the FA SP:

Free Agents

David Price: 5.1

Zack Greinke: 4.2

Hisashi Iwakuma: 3.5 (in 202 IP though...)

John Lackey: 3.0

Johnny Cueto: 2.9

Jordan Zimmermann: 2.8

Scott Kazmir: 2.7

Ian Kennedy: 2.5

Jaime Garcia: 2.5

Wei-Yin Chen: 2.5

Jeff Samardzija: 2.4

J.A. Happ: 2.2

Brett Anderson: 2.1

Mike Leake: 2.0

Yovani Gallardo: 1.5

Marco Estrada: 0.6

And a few where the projections haven't been adjusted for their roles as SP yet, to be added later:

Doug Fister

Bartolo Colon

Mat Latos

Rich Hill

Chris Young

Our current SP:

Kevin Gausman: 2.0

Ubaldo Jimenez: 1.9

Chris Tillman: 1.5

Miguel Gonzalez: 1.0

Mike Wright: 0.3 (71 IP)

Tyler Wilson: 0.3 (36 IP)

Vance Worley: 0.2 (30 IP as a RP)

And to torture ourselves:

Eduardo Rodriguez: 1.9

Zach Davies: 1.6

...Jake Arrieta: 5.3

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It's much easier to discuss FA than trade targets, because we know the FA available and it's not always clear the players available via trade. I'll take my best shot at guessing who might be available, mostly by looking at pitchers on teams not expected to contend or who may otherwise have been rumored as available. I've broken them down into tiers based on projected fWAR with Steamer projections (w/ ages based on OD 2016). Maybe if I'm feeling ambitious I'll edit this over the offseason as rumors start flying around.

#1's - Projected WAR 3.5+

Carlos Carrasco: 5.1

Age: 29

Contract Status: 3yrs + 2 options (4.5, 6.5, 8, 9, 9.5).

Tyson Ross: 4.2

Age: 28

Contract Status: Arb 3 (was super 2), projected $10.0MM. Team control through 2017.

Stephen Strasburg: 4.2

Age: 27

Contract Status: Arb 3, projected $10.5MM. FA after 2016.

Sonny Gray: 3.5

Age: 26

Contract Status: Pre-arb 3. Team control through 2019.

Hard to imagine the Orioles have the pieces to get any of these guys. Carrasco, Ross, and Strasburg have all been rumored to be on the market, and Gray is my speculation since Billy Beane is the GM least attached to any of his players and may be looking at a full-scale rebuild.

I'd give most of our minor league system for Carrasco and Gray considering their contract status, and definitely a multiple good pieces for Ross or Strasburg. I would be stunned if the Orioles could pull a deal for any of these guys though, they're certain to be in high demand and are unlikely to be dealt at all.

#2/#3's - Projected WAR 2.5-3.4

Danny Salazar: 3.4

Age: 26

Contract Status: Pre-arb 2 (service 1.162). Team control through 2020.

Jose Quintana: 3.2

Age: 27

Contract Status: 3yrs + 2 options (3.8, 6, 8.35, 10.5, 10.5).

James Shields: 3.0

Age: 34

Contract Status: 3yrs + option (21, 21, 21, 16).

Andrew Cashner: 3.0

Age:29

Contract Status: Arb 3, projected $7.0MM. FA after 2016.

Patrick Corbin: 2.6

Age: 26

Contract Status: Arb 1, projected $2.3MM. Team control through 2018.

Jorge de la Rosa: 2.5

Age: 34

Contract Status: 1 yr, $12.5MM. FA after 2016.

The Indians were frequently rumored at the deadline for shopping their SP. They have a very deep staff and may be willing to part with Salazar, but definitely at a high price. He and Quintana are very borderline for the top section - We probably don't have the pieces to get them considering their skill and favorable contract status.

Shields has a terrible contract, in the territory of pure salary dump despite still being an effective pitcher. He's not a bad target if we decide we have the money available. Cashner would cost more, but the Padres are facing a potential "blow it up" offseason and he could be in the realm of pitcher we could afford, with his injury history and single year left of control keeping his price down.

Corbin is a very talented young pitcher coming off a successful return from TJS. He would probably have a high price tag and the D-Backs likely fashion themselves contenders and won't want to deal him, but if he's available I like him a lot. De la Rosa has been linked to the Orioles before, but the Rockies have always asked for the moon for him. Who knows if they'll ever get reasonable with a year left on his deal - they will probably hold him until the deadline at least.

#4/#5's - Projected WAR 1-2.4

Jesse Chavez: 2.2

Age: 32

Contract Status: Arb 3, projected $4.7MM. FA after 2016.

Josh Tomlin: 1.8

Age: 31

Contract Status: Arb 2, projected $3.1MM. Team control through 2017.

Matt Garza: 1.4

Age: 32

Contract Status: 2yrs + vesting option (12.5, 12.5, 13).

Scott Feldman: 1.2

Age: 33

Contract Status: 2yrs (10,8).

Pretty uninspiring stuff. I had a hard time finding guys that even fit these specifications, as most of the pitchers falling into this WAR category are young guys whose teams are invested in them or are so bad they're not even worth talking about.

Chavez and Tomlin are moderately interesting. Chavez has made a successful transition to SP from the pen, and Tomlin has always been a great K/BB guy soft-tosser coming off a very good partial season. Depending on the price, they'd be decent upgrades at the back end of our rotation.

I'm not sure the Orioles have the payroll to take on Garza or Feldman even for free, and they certainly aren't moving the needle much over our current options.

Summary

For me, the only guy on here who is realistically attainable and interesting enough to be excited over is Cashner. Beyond that, it's pretty much all guys who are too good for us to afford, too expensive for us to afford, or not good enough to really want. We may very well be stuck with the FA market or try dealing for somebody unexpectedly available that I've overlooked.

And for those interested, here's the list of projected WAR by Steamer for the FA SP:

Free Agents

David Price: 5.1

Zack Greinke: 4.2

Hisashi Iwakuma: 3.5 (in 202 IP though...)

John Lackey: 3.0

Johnny Cueto: 2.9

Jordan Zimmermann: 2.8

Scott Kazmir: 2.7

Ian Kennedy: 2.5

Jaime Garcia: 2.5

Wei-Yin Chen: 2.5

Jeff Samardzija: 2.4

J.A. Happ: 2.2

Brett Anderson: 2.1

Mike Leake: 2.0

Yovani Gallardo: 1.5

Marco Estrada: 0.6

And a few where the projections haven't been adjusted for their roles as SP yet, to be added later:

Doug Fister

Bartolo Colon

Mat Latos

Rich Hill

Chris Young

Our current SP:

Kevin Gausman: 2.0

Ubaldo Jimenez: 1.9

Chris Tillman: 1.5

Miguel Gonzalez: 1.0

Mike Wright: 0.3 (71 IP)

Tyler Wilson: 0.3 (36 IP)

Vance Worley: 0.2 (30 IP as a RP)

And to torture ourselves:

Eduardo Rodriguez: 1.9

Zach Davies: 1.6

...Jake Arrieta: 5.3

Wow, looks like a lot of excellent detail work. However, there is one question that has to be answered before seriously considering trades. Who do the O's have to trade and is what they get back worth what they would give up. In most cases the O's have little to trade that make sense. Their core players need to stay. Their fringe players will not bring much of value in return.

But I do appreciate the effort this post took to put together. I look forward to the comments this thread will generate.

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Wow, looks like a lot of excellent detail work. However, there is one question that has to be answered before seriously considering trades. Who do the O's have to trade and is what they get back worth what they would give up. In most cases the O's have little to trade that make sense. Their core players need to stay. Their fringe players will not bring much of value in return.

But I do appreciate the effort this post took to put together. I look forward to the comments this thread will generate.

Yeah I agree, but it's impossible to know who specifically these teams will ask for from our system at this point. This is a different exercise that evaluating individual deals. We certainly aren't in a position to be dealing much from our major league roster, and our best minor league system doesn't have alot of pieces, so if the teams with SP to deal are looking for something we can't give up not much is going to materialize.

I said as much in the OP, but there just aren't alot of guys that are good fits for us. Not many out there who won't command a prospect haul and aren't super expensive. That by itself is valuable information to know, because it means we may be looking at the FA market more than we normally would.

I expect the Orioles to look hard at the trade market because the prospect of adding 2 free agent pitchers could take a huge chunk out of the money we have available this offseason. I just don't know if they'll find what they're looking for.

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Yeah I agree, but it's impossible to know who specifically these teams will ask for from our system at this point. This is a different exercise that evaluating individual deals. We certainly aren't in a position to be dealing much from our major league roster, and our best minor league system doesn't have alot of pieces, so if the teams with SP to deal are looking for something we can't give up not much is going to materialize.

I said as much in the OP, but there just aren't alot of guys that are good fits for us. Not many out there who won't command a prospect haul and aren't super expensive. That by itself is valuable information to know, because it means we may be looking at the FA market more than we normally would.

I expect the Orioles to look hard at the trade market because the prospect of adding 2 free agent pitchers could take a huge chunk out of the money we have available this offseason. I just don't know if they'll find what they're looking for.

Great Work. Front Page.

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Yeah I agree, but it's impossible to know who specifically these teams will ask for from our system at this point. This is a different exercise that evaluating individual deals. We certainly aren't in a position to be dealing much from our major league roster, and our best minor league system doesn't have alot of pieces, so if the teams with SP to deal are looking for something we can't give up not much is going to materialize.

I said as much in the OP, but there just aren't alot of guys that are good fits for us. Not many out there who won't command a prospect haul and aren't super expensive. That by itself is valuable information to know, because it means we may be looking at the FA market more than we normally would.

I expect the Orioles to look hard at the trade market because the prospect of adding 2 free agent pitchers could take a huge chunk out of the money we have available this offseason. I just don't know if they'll find what they're looking for.

Since you are done the evaluation work you may appreciate why I have been advocating the O's signing O'Day and moving Britton to a starter. Even if O'Day is in the range of 7/21 to 4/32 he cheaper than trying to trade or sign a FA starter. The O's have a lot of relievers that are good to great. I can see the O's moving Britton to the rotation and still having a pen that is near the top of the league.

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Since you are done the evaluation work you may appreciate why I have been advocating the O's signing O'Day and moving Britton to a starter. Even if O'Day is in the range of 7/21 to 4/32 he cheaper than trying to trade or sign a FA starter. The O's have a lot of relievers that are good to great. I can see the O's moving Britton to the rotation and still having a pen that is near the top of the league.

Britton can't start. He won't be good.

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Since you are done the evaluation work you may appreciate why I have been advocating the O's signing O'Day and moving Britton to a starter. Even if O'Day is in the range of 7/21 to 4/32 he cheaper than trying to trade or sign a FA starter. The O's have a lot of relievers that are good to great. I can see the O's moving Britton to the rotation and still having a pen that is near the top of the league.

Honestly I think that's a question that none of us can answer, because it presents critical questions that we have no information about. I think the Orioles' coaching and medical staffs are the only ones that have proper tools for insight in this area. There's a number of questions that need to be answered if Britton is to be moved to the rotation:

1) Can Britton pitch with a full starter's workload? Basically, was his shoulder injury serious enough and/or are his mechanics unorthodox enough that he should only be a reliever?

2) Even if he is healthy enough to start and has no medical concerns with the transition, will his velocity loss on his sinker me fairly minimal (still averaging 93+)?

3) Does he have or could he develop a 3rd pitch that he could reasonably use as a SP against RHB, even if it's just a show-me pitch?

I think for moving Britton to the rotation to be a good idea, he needs to hit all 3 criteria. I don't think anybody outside of the Orioles' medical and coaching staff can even guess at #1. We can speculate on #2 that he may only lose 2-3 mph by starting, but that's based on the typical velocity lost in the SP/RP transition, not on his actual bullpens or other practice. As to #3, for all we know, Britton hasn't even practiced a 3rd pitch since moving to the pen. We have no clue if he would have a feel for one as a SP; the only thing we do know is his changeup wasn't really a credible 3rd pitch as a starter.

All that being said, if the Orioles think Britton checks out on all 3 questions, then I agree with you that moving him to the rotation would be worthwhile. He's going to be quite expensive very soon as a closer and we have a much larger need in the rotation than in the pen. But I don't know how we could possibly answer those 3 questions with the information we have as fans, so it's a very tough question to debate. It's unlike any other question we can talk about on a message board, because it doesn't have to do with statistics or even in-game scouting - all the information to base a decision on come from behind the scenes.

The fact that the Orioles' haven't strongly considered moving Britton back to the rotation in the last two years tells me they're probably doubting at least one of those three criteria, and that's enough for me to think that it's likely not a good idea. Which is too bad, because if it could work out, it would solve alot of our problems.

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Looking at it more, we match up well with the A's. For one, their system at the top is looks thin on pitching. MLB's prospect rankings are the only one I can find that have been updated recently, and of their top 8 players, only one is a pitcher (then 4 pitchers). So they may be targeting pitching in a trade.

Here's one theoretical mega-trade with the A's:

Sonny Gray, Josh Reddick, Drew Pomeranz for Miguel Gonzalez, Dylan Bundy, Hunter Harvey, Chance Sisco, Mike Wright, Mike Yastrzemski

Gray, who was #15 on Fangraph's trade value list this year, probably commands Bundy and Harvey at least on his own. Reddick likewise for Sisco. That's the "quality" part of the trade they get, the remainder being the "quantity" teams also look for when dealing star players. Gonzalez steps into their rotation as a potential piece they could flip if he bounces back, Wright is the MLB-ready piece, and Yaz is the kind of unheralded well-rounded player the A's like. (This is also just a chance for me to say how much I like Drew Pomeranz, who is death on lefties and still very good vs righties out of the pen, holding batters to an overall .189/.266/.288 line as a reliever).

Laughably low offer? Laughably high?

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As potential trade bait I'd add Tillman, Britton and Walker, to Miguel Gonzalez, Dylan Bundy, Hunter Harvey, Chance Sisco, Mike Wright, Mike Yastrzemski.

As to FA SP, the first on that list starting with Kazmir who doesn't have a QO attached.

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Looking at it more, we match up well with the A's. For one, their system at the top is looks thin on pitching. MLB's prospect rankings are the only one I can find that have been updated recently, and of their top 8 players, only one is a pitcher (then 4 pitchers). So they may be targeting pitching in a trade.

Here's one theoretical mega-trade with the A's:

Sonny Gray, Josh Reddick, Drew Pomeranz for Miguel Gonzalez, Dylan Bundy, Hunter Harvey, Chance Sisco, Mike Wright, Mike Yastrzemski

Gray, who was #15 on Fangraph's trade value list this year, probably commands Bundy and Harvey at least on his own. Reddick likewise for Sisco. That's the "quality" part of the trade they get, the remainder being the "quantity" teams also look for when dealing star players. Gonzalez steps into their rotation as a potential piece they could flip if he bounces back, Wright is the MLB-ready piece, and Yaz is the kind of unheralded well-rounded player the A's like. (This is also just a chance for me to say how much I like Drew Pomeranz, who is death on lefties and still very good vs righties out of the pen, holding batters to an overall .189/.266/.288 line as a reliever).

Laughably low offer? Laughably high?

I think you are low. He's a top 20ish starter in the game and he is under control until 2020 (not even arb eligible until 2017).

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I think you are low. He's a top 20ish starter in the game and he is under control until 2020 (not even arb eligible until 2017).

Do the Orioles even have enough in the system to acquire somebody like Gray? I know he's one of the top most valuable assets in the game. What kind of haul do you think it would take if we're not including Machado and Gausman? (Ignoring Reddick for now, just for Gray).

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Do the Orioles even have enough in the system to acquire somebody like Gray? I know he's one of the top most valuable assets in the game. What kind of haul do you think it would take if we're not including Machado and Gausman? (Ignoring Reddick for now, just for Gray).

No deal could be made without Gausman. They'd need at least one elite talent going back and with Bundy and Harvey hurt and Gausman off the table for the point of this exercise, it just wouldn't get done.

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