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The O's are back in the "opportunity" business


wildcard

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One of Dan and Buck favorite saying is that they believe the can "out opportunity" the competition. What they mean is they attract players by giving them the opportunity to play for the O's. That worked for the O's from 2012-2014. Players stepped up when given opportunities. It didn't work so well last year.

I think the O's will follow and in most cases make offers to all their free agents. But there are limits to how far they will bid. Here are my best guess of where I think the O's limits are:

Davis 6/120

Chen 4/60

Wieters 4/52

O'Day 3/24

Parra 3/10

Pearce 1/3 maybe with an option

They probably don't start at that those numbers but I don't think they go passed them. They will certainly not get them all back and really can't afford to get them all back. But they may get some of them.

Additionally I think they non tender Matusz and then try to sign him 2/6. He can't get righties out with consistency but he does quite well vs lefties.

They will give spring training opportunities to many players from the farm depending on which of their free agents sign.

1B - Mancini, Walker and Wilkins

OF - Alvarez, Lake and Urrutia

C - Clevenger if Wieters is not signed

DH will be wide open for all with Paredes getting another shot but he does not have a hold on the spot to start ST.

Pitching - Wilson, Wright, Givens, Drake, Triggs, Garcia. Gunkel, Miranda.

Worley certainly falls in here somewhere if the O's offer him a contract which is projected to be about 2.7m.

None of these players are guaranteed a spot but they can earn one in ST.

Bundy has more than an opportunity because of this ability and because he is out of options. He will be on the team in some fashion probably as a reliever.

I think Dan and Buck will follow their normal opportunistic approach to acquiring players. They will look for under valued players. They will not spend big on any new players. I don't look for them to change in any big way. If another Nelson Cruz type of player is available they will jump of that opportunity.

Giving opportunities to players is something I expect will be a motto stated over and over again this off season.

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If they didn't offer Nick 4/$40M, I can't see any way they offer Wieters 4/$52M.

While you may be on target with the Orioles max price on each of these individual players, I don't see any way that they make all of these offers at the same time. That would be about $90M AAV total.

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If they didn't offer Nick 4/$40M, I can't see any way they offer Wieters 4/$52M.

While you may be on target with the Orioles max price on each of these individual players, I don't see any way that they make all of these offers at the same time. That would be about $90M AAV total.

I agree that they will not make all the offers at the same time but rather make them when appropriate.

Nick and Matt are two different cases. Nick needed neck surgery. Matt is more than a year past his surgery and they have been able to monitor his progress. I think the O's believe Matt will fully recover and be at full strength next season. JMG.

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If they didn't offer Nick 4/$40M, I can't see any way they offer Wieters 4/$52M.

While you may be on target with the Orioles max price on each of these individual players, I don't see any way that they make all of these offers at the same time. That would be about $90M AAV total.

I hope there are no offers. Except to Manny and Pearce. Maybe a small one to O'Day.
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If this is their plan then the payroll will be about 95M and we will be lucky to break .500 again

This is what I'll think they'll offer:

Davis 6/110 QO

Chen 4/40 QO

Wieters 4/50 QO

O'Day 3/21

Parra 2/9

Pearce 2/10 signed

IMO they will sign a FA SP in the 10-12M range, and a couple of LH OBP bats in the 10 M range.

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If this is their plan then the payroll will be about 95M and we will be lucky to break .500 again

This is what I'll think they'll offer:

Davis 6/110 QO

Chen 4/40 QO

Wieters 4/50 QO

O'Day 3/21

Parra 2/9

Pearce 2/10 signed

IMO they will sign a FA SP in the 10-12M range, and a couple of LH OBP bats in the 10 M range.

I think they may go higher per year for Davis but only 5 years. Perhaps Boras will see that as earning Davis another contract somewhere at 35 if he does not decline in year 5. I think they'll do a qualifying offer for Wieters, but offer him very little--just see if we get him for the one year.

I would not offer Parra anything. Alvarez, Urritia, Reimold could fill his spot and do as well. That leaves us with a starting pitcher and a bat for the other CO. If we don't get Davis I can see them actually going big for a pitcher.

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I think they may go higher per year for Davis but only 5 years. Perhaps Boras will see that as earning Davis another contract somewhere at 35 if he does not decline in year 5. I think they'll do a qualifying offer for Wieters, but offer him very little--just see if we get him for the one year.

I would not offer Parra anything. Alvarez, Urritia, Reimold could fill his spot and do as well. That leaves us with a starting pitcher and a bat for the other CO. If we don't get Davis I can see them actually going big for a pitcher.

These are token competitive offers IMO. The only one they have any serious interest in is Pearce IMO. Possibly Parra though I hope not..
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Another guy to keep in mind for the bullpen is Steve Johnson. Coming back from injury, he really had a promising season. He is the pitcher most affected by the Worley pickup, IMO. Although you can certainly argue that guys like Wright and Wilson are impacted, as well.

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I don't think Steve Johnson stays on the 40 man roster. The O's will offer him a minor league contract with a ST invitation. He will look around to see if he can find a better offer. Who knows what happens from there.

Steve Johnson, the Nolan Reimold of RP.

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IMO the best way to handle Wieters is to offer the QO and move on. There is a slim chance he could take that if he wants to gamble on one more season but as a Boras client, he most likely he get a multi year deal from another team and we can just move on from him.

I don't think catcher is a glaring hole for us right now. We need to address 1B, RF, LF, and PITCHING-PITCHING-PITCHING.

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IMO the best way to handle Wieters is to offer the QO and move on. There is a slim chance he could take that if he wants to gamble on one more season but as a Boras client, he most likely he get a multi year deal from another team and we can just move on from him.

I don't think catcher is a glaring hole for us right now. We need to address 1B, RF, LF, and PITCHING-PITCHING-PITCHING.

Not taking the QO didn't work very well for Nelson. It worked well for the Orioles though. I think Matt jumps on the QO.

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If this is their plan then the payroll will be about 95M and we will be lucky to break .500 again

This is what I'll think they'll offer:

Davis 6/110 QO

Chen 4/40 QO

Wieters 4/50 QO

O'Day 3/21

Parra 2/9

Pearce 2/10 signed

IMO they will sign a FA SP in the 10-12M range, and a couple of LH OBP bats in the 10 M range.

I hope the Orioles are not banking on the Cuban guys.They need real players and not hope a couple of these guys are average. Tried that this year and it didn't work.I don't mind one guy to take a chance on but three or four are asking for trouble

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If this is their plan then the payroll will be about 95M and we will be lucky to break .500 again

This is what I'll think they'll offer:

Davis 6/110 QO

Chen 4/40 QO

Wieters 4/50 QO

O'Day 3/21

Parra 2/9

Pearce 2/10 signed

IMO they will sign a FA SP in the 10-12M range, and a couple of LH OBP bats in the 10 M range.

I think Dan will use all of his 115m budget. Though some of it may wait until July to be spent.

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