The Davis solution - Byung-ho Park

[Roll Tide]

29 year old 1B with 50 homers and 120 RBIs the last two years. The guy hit .300 each season and had an OBP 100 points higher than his average.

I would have to think that even with posting he'd be a lot cheaper than Davis?

Probably a pipe dream but certainly and option the Orioles should consider

http://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.cgi?id=park--000byu

[DrungoHazewood]

Interested. Would definitely pursue. But just remember: the Korean Baseball Organization makes the peak of the steroid era look like the year Bob Gibson had a 1.12 ERA. Yamiaco Navarro, I am not kidding you, had 48 homers there this year in a 140-game schedule. So just deflate Park's numbers appropriately, and I'd assume his price would be a tiny fraction of Davis'.

[Aristotelian]

Interested. Would definitely pursue. But just remember: the Korean Baseball Organization makes the peak of the steroid era look like the year Bob Gibson had a 1.12 ERA. Yamiaco Navarro, I am not kidding you, had 48 homers there this year in a 140-game schedule. So just deflate Park's numbers appropriately, and I'd assume his price would be a tiny fraction of Davis'.

For what it's worth, Byung Ho's KBO numbers (1.039, 1.119, 1.150 the last three years) compare favorably to Jung Ho Kang (.973, .876, 1.198), and Kang put up an .816 OPS in MLB. The high level Korean players have really done well recently - Kang, Ryu, Choo.

Navarro did hit 20 HR between Norfolk and Dominican Winter League, so it's not a total shock that he put up some big numbers in KBO. If I had to guess, Park could put up an .850 OPS with 18-25 HR.

He is right-handed, unfortunately, in a lineup that already has AJ, Manny, Schoop, and potentially Mancini, while Clevenger is probably our best lefty bat at the moment.

[Ruzious]

He'll be posted soon. Gotta like that his numbers have improved each of the last 5 seasons - even after a 52 homer season.

[DrungoHazewood]

For what it's worth, Byung Ho's KBO numbers (1.039, 1.119, 1.150 the last three years) compare favorably to Jung Ho Kang (.973, .876, 1.198), and Kang put up an .816 OPS in MLB. The high level Korean players have really done well recently - Kang, Ryu, Choo.

Navarro did hit 20 HR between Norfolk and Dominican Winter League, so it's not a total shock that he put up some big numbers in KBO. If I had to guess, Park could put up an .850 OPS with 18-25 HR.

He is right-handed, unfortunately, in a lineup that already has AJ, Manny, Schoop, and potentially Mancini, while Clevenger is probably our best lefty bat at the moment.

I just urge caution in expectations. The KBO is something like a AA-quality league that scores 5-6 runs a game. Nexen, where Byung-Ho played, scored 904 runs this past year, and was an 88-win (per 162 game) team despite a 4.91 ERA. It's a little like numbers from Rancho Cucamonga in the Cal League. Sometimes a guy hits .370 there and is a real prospect, sometimes he's just some guy who can hit A ball pitching at high altitude. I'd like to know the offensive context of those prior players you quote - I don't know if Korea's extreme environment is a new thing or not. Also, park effects.

[DrungoHazewood]

Maybe I shouldn't, maybe I should expect sanity from front offices. But I kind of expect the inflated numbers to drive salary. At least a little. It's hard to psychologically digest that .343/53/120 is going to boil down to somewhere between Neil Walker and Josh Reddick. I'd still go after him.

[Redskins Rick]

I just urge caution in expectations. The KBO is something like a AA-quality league that scores 5-6 runs a game. Nexen, where Byung-Ho played, scored 904 runs this past year, and was an 88-win (per 162 game) team despite a 4.91 ERA. It's a little like numbers from Rancho Cucamonga in the Cal League. Sometimes a guy hits .370 there and is a real prospect, sometimes he's just some guy who can hit A ball pitching at high altitude. I'd like to know the offensive context of those prior players you quote - I don't know if Korea's extreme environment is a new thing or not. Also, park effects.

Also, are they playing with Minor League Baseballs / Major League Baseballs or their own?

No

[DrungoHazewood]

Also, are they playing with Minor League Baseballs / Major League Baseballs or their own?

No

Are you saying that you'd pass on anyone who's not playing with MLB or MiLB--spec balls? Personally I'd just try to adjust for context and use that to project, rather than just passing on a portion of the talent pool. Do NCAA or High School teams use those kind of balls? If not, I guess you'd stop drafting?

[Redskins Rick]

Are you saying that you'd pass on anyone who's not playing with MLB or MiLB--spec balls? Personally I'd just try to adjust for context and use that to project, rather than just passing on a portion of the talent pool. Do NCAA or High School teams use those kind of balls? If not, I guess you'd stop drafting?

Hell no, I dont want to stop passing on talent pool.

But, don't we have to take their stats into consideration?

You cant take just a guy that hit 50 HR in 2 years in whatever program he was at, and believe, that he can do the same thing at the big league level.

[Roll Tide]

Hell no, I dont want to stop passing on talent pool.

But, don't we have to take their stats into consideration?

You cant take just a guy that hit 50 HR in 2 years in whatever program he was at, and believe, that he can do the same thing at the big league level.

I don't suggest he'd hit 50 in the big leagues. But I think he could hit 30 and bat .280 with a .380 OBP. I don't think his batting eye will change so he appears to be a patient hitter.

[Ruzious]

Hell no, I dont want to stop passing on talent pool.

But, don't we have to take their stats into consideration?

You cant take just a guy that hit 50 HR in 2 years in whatever program he was at, and believe, that he can do the same thing at the big league level.

Take stats into consideration? Where did you come up with that idea?

[Redskins Rick]

I don't suggest he'd hit 50 in the big leagues. But I think he could hit 30 and bat .280 with a .380 OBP. I don't think his batting eye will change so he appears to be a patient hitter.

I buy into that, and believe he is worth going after. But, doubt he would be ready in 2016 to play at the big league level as a starter.

[DrungoHazewood]

Hell no, I dont want to stop passing on talent pool.

But, don't we have to take their stats into consideration?

You cant take just a guy that hit 50 HR in 2 years in whatever program he was at, and believe, that he can do the same thing at the big league level.

Maybe I'm missing something here. My point was that you need to appropriately weight his performances using the context of league quality and offensive levels. And scouting, if you have it. Actually, the more levels of abstraction (i.e. multiple changes in talent and run context) the more you need to rely on scouting.

[DrungoHazewood]

I don't suggest he'd hit 50 in the big leagues. But I think he could hit 30 and bat .280 with a .380 OBP. I don't think his batting eye will change so he appears to be a patient hitter.

I would assume he will get fewer walks as he'll be facing much better pitching in a much more stingy run environment. It depends somewhat on type of hitter, but walk rate certainly declines on promotion from lower levels.

[Redskins Rick]

Maybe I'm missing something here. My point was that you need to appropriately weight his performances using the context of league quality and offensive levels. And scouting, if you have it. Actually, the more levels of abstraction (i.e. multiple changes in talent and run context) the more you need to rely on scouting.

Maybe not, maybe it's just me this morning, missing something.