MLBTR predicts 4/64m for Matt Wieters

[mdbdotcom]

Before or after his arm falls off?

Wieters or Cueto?

[24fps]

Pearce is a decent low-risk candidate at his likely price point. But it's a little disingenuous to say he's "fully capable" of hitting 20 homers and driving in 80 runs (or some other more meaningful metrics/thresholds) since he's 32 years old and has never remotely approached that combination in his MLB career.

I used BBRef's functionality based on 2013-2015 production which I disclosed in my post so I think referring to it disingenuous is unwarranted. In 2014 he was already at 21 HR and 49 RBI in 383 PA. 650 PA (a reasonable expectation for a full-time player) at the same rate of production would put him over both thresholds.

I think your first sentence is most relevant one. Ultimately comparing Wieters to Pearce isn't very meaningful IMO, but I don't feel like getting to work right away this morning.

[DrungoHazewood]

4/64 is a lot of money for a likely max 120 game catcher. In the likely event that Davis will not sign with the O's, is it possible or acceptable for the O's to have a tandem of Pearce/Wieters at 1st base, Wieters/Joseph/Clevenger catching and a Wieters/Pearce/Clevenger at DH? It certainly gives lefty/righty balance. I assume Wieters could play at least acceptable 1st base. Could the combinations of these 4 players over the season approach what the O's got from those 3 positions last year? Is it a ridiculous idea? It seems affordable and in a couple of years Joseph or Wieters could be traded if Cisco develops.

Why would you want a first baseman with a career OPS of .743 and 26 professional innings at the position? Almost all of Wieters' value comes from being a good defender at a premium defensive position. He's a replacement-level first baseman or DH. You could find first basemen with Wieters' total production on the six year minor league free agent list.

[DrungoHazewood]

I used BBRef's functionality based on 2013-2015 production which I disclosed in my post so I think referring to it disingenuous is unwarranted. In 2014 he was already at 21 HR and 49 RBI in 383 PA. 650 PA (a reasonable expectation for a full-time player) at the same rate of production would put him over both thresholds.

I think your first sentence is most relevant one. Ultimately comparing Wieters to Pearce isn't very meaningful IMO, but I don't feel like getting to work right away this morning.

Disingenuous was probably too strong. But whatever the phrasing, I think it's highly unlikely that a guy who's peaked out at 383 PAs through age 32 is going to get 650 PAs to go along with 20+ homers and a career high RBI at 33.

[mdbdotcom]

Before or after his arm falls off?

Okay, split it between Jaso, Justin Turner, and Steve Pearce.

[24fps]

Signing Wieters does not keep the O's from signing Pearce. Just don't expect Pearce to hit 20/80.

I think $16 million would be about appropriate value for both. Of course that's assuming the Orioles needed Wieters in the first place which they don't.

[DrungoHazewood]

Being a little picky. I will take 22/79 like he did in 2013.

I think the O's will have to get Wieters some at bats at 1B or DH so he does not kill his legs at catching but he has a decent chance of returning to 20/80. The question is who else could the O's acquire that has as good a chance to hitting 20/80?

I don't think 20/80 is a good criteria. I want to know what combination of players and abilities they're going to acquire to fill the holes left by the various departing players this offseason. Signing Wieters with the intent of giving him at bats at 1B or DH isn't going to make the team more competitive. A .700-.750 OPS DH/1B makes it harder to win.

[UpstateNYfan]

Why would you want a first baseman with a career OPS of .743 and 26 professional innings at the position? Almost all of Wieters' value comes from being a good defender at a premium defensive position. He's a replacement-level first baseman or DH. You could find first basemen with Wieters' total production on the six year minor league free agent list.

I don't know, that's why I am asking. Many still seem to have a belief that Wieters will "break out" offensively. I have trouble with Atlanta paying that much for a part time catcher. Some here have thought if Wieters caught less, his offensive (literal please) numbers might improve.

[wildcard]

I hope you're not expecting either the Orioles to sign Wieters, or Wieters to hit 20/80. I'd say the odds of the former are about 10%, and the latter no better than 1-in-3.

Expecting? No not expecting. Just trying to get someone to tell me who the O's can acquire that has the potential to hit as well as a healthy Wieters. So far no one has offered a good suggestion.

[wildcard]

I don't think 20/80 is a good criteria. I want to know what combination of players and abilities they're going to acquire to fill the holes left by the various departing players this offseason. Signing Wieters with the intent of giving him at bats at 1B or DH isn't going to make the team more competitive. A .700-.750 OPS DH/1B makes it harder to win.

So far it looks pretty hard to win any way. The O's have Jones, Manny and Schoop. They need another good hitter or two that can knock in runs. So what if Wieters hit for a 740 OPS if he knock in 80 runs. Joseph, Parra, Hardy, Reimold, Pearce.....They just don't give the offensive production. Maybe Pedro Alvarez at DH?

[DrungoHazewood]

I don't know, that's why I am asking. Many still seem to have a belief that Wieters will "break out" offensively. I have trouble with Atlanta paying that much for a part time catcher. Some here have thought if Wieters caught less, his offensive (literal please) numbers might improve.

I think it's always a longshot to expect a 30-year-old to break out. How many 30-year-old catchers switched positions and broke out? Johnny Bench switched to third base and was out of the league in a couple years. Yogi started playing the outfield some, with no discernible impact on his numbers. I guess Joe Torre, but he had some pretty huge years while primarily catching. They kept talking about moving Piazza, and when they finally did it for part of 2004 his hitting numbers didn't seem to change.

[DrungoHazewood]

So far it looks pretty hard to win any way. The O's have Jones, Manny and Schoop. They need another good hitter or two that can knock in runs. So what if Wieters hit for a 740 OPS if he knock in 80 runs. Joseph, Parra, Hardy, Reimold, Pearce.....They just don't give the offensive production. Maybe Pedro Alvarez at DH?

I think there are combinations of acquisitions, including some higher-OBP lower-power guys who could produce enough offense to compete. If the defense and pitching are sound.

[wildcard]

Wieters or Cueto?

Wieters as had the surgery. Cueto sounds like he is headed in that direction.

[wildcard]

I think there are combinations of acquisitions, including some higher-OBP lower-power guys who could produce enough offense to compete. If the defense and pitching are sound.

I am all for a high OBP guy but they have to have more guys that can knock in runs. Three guys just are not enough.

[mdbdotcom]

Wieters as had the surgery. Cueto sounds like he is headed in that direction.

Didn't look like it Thursday.