The importance of a J.J. Hardy bounce-back

[Frobby]

When I think of our path to being a contender next year, I think it's incredibly important that J.J. Hardy has a solid bounce-back season. Here's Hardy's rWAR and fWAR in his five seasons in Baltimore:

2011: 4.1, 4.4

2012: 3.2, 2.4

2013: 3.9, 3.3

2014: 3.3, 3.3

2015: 0.0, 0.0

Now, before you freak out about Hardy's lack of production this year, I have to point out that at one point he was at about 1.4 and seemed well on his way to exceeding 2.0 WAR this year despite missing the first month of the season. For the last two months, he was playing hurt and that affected both his offense and his defense, and he slipped all the way to 0.0.

We know that Hardy has a torn labrum (left shoulder) that he isn't planning to have surgery on. I'm sure that injury is affecting him, but that's not the only injury he was nursing. You could tell every time he ran to 1B that he was hurting pretty badly in his groin and/or his back.

So the big question here is, to what extent is it realistic to hope for a Hardy bounce-back? At this point, I don't think we can realistically expect more offensive output than we got back in 2014 (.682 OPS, still a lot better than the .564 we got last year but nowhere near his 2011 and 2013 seasons). But defensively, I think Hardy is still a topnotch SS when reasonably healthy. I think his range was just fine the first few months after he came back, but hampered at the end when he was hurting.

At this point, I'd be pretty happy if J.J. could be worth 2.0-2.5 WAR next season. That would be his second-lowest as an Oriole, but still a lot better than we saw this year. If he's as bad next year as he ended up being this season, it's going to be a long season. And I must say, that labrum worries me. I hope he does what he can this winter to strengthen it and his core muscles to try to get on the field a lot more in 2016.

[MrOrange82]

It's not the first time he's looked done (2009), but he also wasn't 33 going on 34 at that time. Also, near as I can tell, his defense didn't drag down his WAR last year. It was mostly offensive futility.

[Frobby]

It's not the first time he's looked done (2009), but he also wasn't 33 going on 34 at that time. Also, near as I can tell, his defense didn't drag down his WAR last year. It was mostly offensive futility.

His defense was very good. However, his UZR/150 was at 16.4 at the 81-game mark, and ended up at 10.1. In my opinion, that's because his injuries hampered his range over the last two months.

[MrOrange82]

His defense was very good. However, his UZR/150 was at 16.4 at the 81-game mark, and ended up at 10.1. In my opinion, that's because his injuries hampered his range over the last two months.

Fair enough. At his age and position, though, I'd almost expect that kind of defense (i.e., second half). The bat is what concerns me.

[mdbdotcom]

He should be able to rehab the shoulder by building up the strength around it. If he can get through spring training in good health, my concern would be overplaying him. I think we need a backup SS who can play once or twice a week to keep Hardy as healthy as possible. That isn't Flaherty. His arm just isn't strong enough to play the left side of the infield on more than an emergency basis. It could be Janish, but his bat, even though it was strong at the end of this season, likely would hurt us bad. I don't think Buck would want to move Manny over to SS once or twice a week. And then there would be the question of who plays 3B when Manny plays SS.

I've thought that it might be time to flip Hardy and Manny, but Hardy has never been a diving for the ball kind of SS. I'm not sure 3B would suit him.

I'm hoping for Hardy to have one really strong year among the two left on his contract. Hopefully, it will be the one when we're in the playoffs.

[El Gordo]

I won't matter what Hardy does if a serious effort isn't Made to fill the holes at SP, COF, DH, and 1B.

[Aristotelian]

If we aren't in contention, a bounce-back JJ would be a really nice trade chip. Then rebuild around Manny at SS. Lots of ways a healthy JJ could help us.

Any doctor types have a sense of the prognosis for somebody with JJ's condition? Will 6 months of rest do it?

[mdbdotcom]

If we aren't in contention, a bounce-back JJ would be a really nice trade chip. Then rebuild around Manny at SS. Lots of ways a healthy JJ could help us.

Any doctor types have a sense of the prognosis for somebody with JJ's condition? Will 6 months of rest do it?

JJ can't be traded without his permission. He is a 10/5 guy.

[abbott]

bounce back? For 4 straight years his plate appearances have dropped from 713 to 437, and each year it falls faster. His OBP, never very good, is falling. His OPS+ has been way below 100 for each of the last 4 years. He's below .400 slugging in 3 of the last 4 yerars. He's 33 for next season with 2 years left on a big contract and he can't be moved.

His defense ought to be stellar, because he's now an offensive liability. And with Wieters likely to sign elsewhere, Joseph is probably a belwo average hitting catcher. That's 2 offensive liabilites. Davis is poised to sign elsewhere as well and his production wont be replace with a single player, too expensive.

Hardy better bounce back for a career year

[Can_of_corn]

bounce back? For 4 straight years his plate appearances have dropped from 713 to 437, and each year it falls faster. His OBP, never very good, is falling. His OPS+ has been way below 100 for each of the last 4 years. He's below .400 slugging in 3 of the last 4 yerars. He's 33 for next season with 2 years left on a big contract and he can't be moved.

His defense ought to be stellar, because he's now an offensive liability. And with Wieters likely to sign elsewhere, Joseph is probably a belwo average hitting catcher. That's 2 offensive liabilites. Davis is poised to sign elsewhere as well and his production wont be replace with a single player, too expensive.

Hardy better bounce back for a career year

His OPS+ in 2013 was 99.

You have an odd definition of "way below". Me, I wouldn't consider his 90 OPS+ in 2014 to be "way below".

So I guess he had a really solid year with the bat in 2007 when he had a 101 OPS+?

[waroriole]

His defense was very good. However, his UZR/150 was at 16.4 at the 81-game mark, and ended up at 10.1. In my opinion, that's because his injuries hampered his range over the last two months.

Probably could've used more days off.

[Frobby]

His OPS+ in 2013 was 99.

You have an odd definition of "way below". Me, I wouldn't consider his 90 OPS+ in 2014 to be "way below".

So I guess he had a really solid year with the bat in 2007 when he had a 101 OPS+?

90 is about league average for a SS.

Also, the point about his PA dropping each of the last three years is true, but meaningless. Hardy played in 159 games in 2013, so the fact that he had fewer PA in 2012 doesn't really reflect anything. The drop the last two years obviously does mean something, but let's not exaggerate and act like Hardy missed any significant time in 2013.

Anyway, I'm not expecting a full bounce-back. Just read the OP.

[Roll Tide]

If we aren't in contention, a bounce-back JJ would be a really nice trade chip. Then rebuild around Manny at SS. Lots of ways a healthy JJ could help us.

Any doctor types have a sense of the prognosis for somebody with JJ's condition? Will 6 months of rest do it?

The arm injury (Labrum) is really bad on the throwing arm due to the throwing motion. The area becomes weak and you lose strength and power. I tore my throwing side. But it affected my swing at the plate. Plus their are different grades of tears and I'm not sure how bad of a tear JJ has. Since he isn't throwing with that arm I think it's not likely to get worse, unless he were to fall and use the arm to break the fall. I had a buddy slip on home plate wearing cleats in the rain. He fell straight backwards and tore the labrum and rotator cuff just by that fall.

[Frobby]

The arm injury (Labrum) is really bad on the throwing arm due to the throwing motion. The area becomes weak and you lose strength and power. I tore my throwing side. But it affected my swing at the plate. Plus their are different grades of tears and I'm not sure how bad of a tear JJ has. Since he isn't throwing with that arm I think it's not likely to get worse, unless he were to fall and use the arm to break the fall. I had a buddy slip on home plate wearing cleats in the rain. He fell straight backwards and tore the labrum and rotator cuff just by that fall.

Just think of those bouncing balls up the middle where the SS dives to make the stop. That's probably how J.J. got the tear in the first place, and that's how he can reaggravate it. And you don't want your SS holding back on those plays.

[Ruzious]

And regardless of any stats people dig up, SS's in their 30's do tend to lose range. He might hit better next year, but that increase might be set off by a decrease in defensive ability.