The importance of a J.J. Hardy bounce-back

[DrungoHazewood]

And regardless of any stats people dig up, SS's in their 30's do tend to lose range. He might hit better next year, but that increase might be set off by a decrease in defensive ability.

The average player loses range starting in his mid-20s. How quickly that goes depends on a lot of things, and some players are able to have very good defensive seasons well into their 30s.

[Frobby]

The average player loses range starting in his mid-20s. How quickly that goes depends on a lot of things, and some players are able to have very good defensive seasons well into their 30s.

I did a little mini-study 3 years ago or so, and concluded that shortstops in the age range Hardy is in right now don't tend to lose much range. They actually lose more during their late 20's, and again at about age 35 on. Of course, every player's different.

[Ruzious]

The average player loses range starting in his mid-20s. How quickly that goes depends on a lot of things, and some players are able to have very good defensive seasons well into their 30s.

But when they're in their mid 20's they're also getting smarter - which can offset the range loss. The continued range loss in their 30's doesn't come with any offsets. Hardy's got a lot of mileage on him, and I don't see a reason for him to be an exception - regardless of any misleading stats people can dig up.

[Redskins Rick]

But when they're in their mid 20's they're also getting smarter - which can offset the range loss. The continued range loss in their 30's doesn't come with any offsets. Hardy's got a lot of mileage on him, and I don't see a reason for him to be an exception - regardless of any misleading stats people can dig up.

So you pretty much have two options:

1 - you can be optimistically hopeful, he bounces back.

2 - Or you can sit back and worry that he is done for.

Hardy is going into ST as the starting SS, and unless he falters to the extreme, he will be the starting SS on Opening Day.

[DrungoHazewood]

But when they're in their mid 20's they're also getting smarter - which can offset the range loss. The continued range loss in their 30's doesn't come with any offsets. Hardy's got a lot of mileage on him, and I don't see a reason for him to be an exception - regardless of any misleading stats people can dig up.

While I agree that most players decline through their 30s, I read this as "I'm not believing any evidence contrary to my prior supposition."

[Ruzious]

While I agree that most players decline through their 30s, I read this as "I'm not believing any evidence contrary to my prior supposition."

Anything's possible, but yes - that's a fair assumption. And it's because I'm weary of people not seeing the forest from the trees and trying to make cases with misleading stats.

[Frobby]

So you pretty much have two options:

1 - you can be optimistically hopeful, he bounces back.

2 - Or you can sit back and worry that he is done for.

Or both, which is what a realistic fan should do.

[Number5]

[justice98]

And regardless of any stats people dig up, SS's in their 30's do tend to lose range. He might hit better next year, but that increase might be set off by a decrease in defensive ability.

I'm amazed he gets to anything at this point. He seems like the most unathletic SS in baseball. He just makes up for it with preparation, anticipation, and general baseball IQ. But at some point, even that won't be enough, and I think that point is soon. But to be fair, those injuries surely made him look extra stiff out there last season.

I wouldnt be opposed to trusting that several seasons of playing with Hardy have rubbed off on Machado and Schoop and move on from Hardy. I only see Hardy getting worse, not better.

[mdbdotcom]

I'm amazed he gets to anything at this point. He seems like the most unathletic SS in baseball. He just makes up for it with preparation, anticipation, and general baseball IQ. But at some point, even that won't be enough, and I think that point is soon. But to be fair, those injuries surely made him look extra stiff out there last season.

I wouldnt be opposed to trusting that several seasons of playing with Hardy have rubbed off on Machado and Schoop and move on from Hardy. I only see Hardy getting worse, not better.

But since his contract is through 2017 and he can't be traded without his permission, there is no good way to move on from Hardy.

[Frobby]

But since his contract is through 2017 and he can't be traded without his permission, there is no good way to move on from Hardy.

There's always a way to move on from a guy, if you've decided he has nothing positive to contribute. You just eat the contract.

That said, I'm nowhere near reaching that conclusion about Hardy. Hence, the OP. If Hardy is as bad in 2016 as he was this year, that will be a different story. I'm hoping that doesn't happen.

[Redskins Rick]

There's always a way to move on from a guy, if you've decided he has nothing positive to contribute. You just eat the contract.

That said, I'm nowhere near reaching that conclusion about Hardy. Hence, the OP. If Hardy is as bad in 2016 as he was this year, that will be a different story. I'm hoping that doesn't happen.

Frobby,

You see, some of us are optimistically hopeful that the game hasn't past him by.

Some are done with him, and want him gone, and ready to move forward.

Personally, I am not there yet, I think he has earned the respect to give him a chance to prove or disprove his 2015 season.

[UpstateNYfan]

I'm amazed he gets to anything at this point. He seems like the most unathletic SS in baseball. He just makes up for it with preparation, anticipation, and general baseball IQ. But at some point, even that won't be enough, and I think that point is soon. But to be fair, those injuries surely made him look extra stiff out there last season.

I wouldnt be opposed to trusting that several seasons of playing with Hardy have rubbed off on Machado and Schoop and move on from Hardy. I only see Hardy getting worse, not better.

Wow, just the opposite....he doesn't have to look Flashy...he gets in front of everything, straight overhand throws...he plays it the way it is suppose to. Too many infielders make the routine out look difficult, not getting in front of the ball, backhanding, changing arm angles. You can call him a lot of things, but not athletic.

[Ruzious]

So you pretty much have two options:

1 - you can be optimistically hopeful, he bounces back.

2 - Or you can sit back and worry that he is done for.

Hardy is going into ST as the starting SS, and unless he falters to the extreme, he will be the starting SS on Opening Day.

Neither of those is the way I look at it. Like I think Frobby and Drungo and others I respect here, I prefer to be realistic first and foremost. If it's realistic to be optimistic, then I'll be optimistic. Obviously, we're all going to be hopeful that JJ improves.

[webbrick2010]

Is Range Factor a meaningful defensive metric?

I see out of 23 qualifying ML SS's Hardy was 21st in range factor, which supports my eye test that he doesn't cover much ground. The O's were also at the bottom of the league in turning DP's

IMHO Hardy will be below replacement level for the remainder of his contract, the only question is how far below, and when the O's bench him and/or eat his contract.