The importance of a J.J. Hardy bounce-back

[weams]

Is Range Factor a meaningful defensive metric?

The O's were also at the bottom of the league in turning DP's

The Orioles Shortstop and Second Baseman were out for half the season. Case closed.

[mdbdotcom]

Is Range Factor a meaningful defensive metric?

I see out of 23 qualifying ML SS's Hardy was 21st in range factor, which supports my eye test that he doesn't cover much ground. The O's were also at the bottom of the league in turning DP's

IMHO Hardy will be below replacement level for the remainder of his contract, the only question is how far below, and when the O's bench him and/or eat his contract.

Thanks for sharing your opinion!

[Larry18]

Is Range Factor a meaningful defensive metric?

I see out of 23 qualifying ML SS's Hardy was 21st in range factor, which supports my eye test that he doesn't cover much ground. The O's were also at the bottom of the league in turning DP's

IMHO Hardy will be below replacement level for the remainder of his contract, the only question is how far below, and when the O's bench him and/or eat his contract.

Where are you getting this information? Because if you are looking at UZR, you need to consider that Lichtman doesn't include plays where there is a shift on individual ratings. BIS doesn't quantify shifts but only states if there was any shift during a play. That really screws up the data on individuals.

[Can_of_corn]

Where are you getting this information? Because if you are looking at UZR, you need to consider that Lichtman doesn't include plays where there is a shift on individual ratings. BIS doesn't quantify shifts but only states if there was any shift during a play. That really screws up the data on individuals.

Heh, not as bad as including shifts.

[weams]

Where are you getting this information? Because if you are looking at UZR, you need to consider that Lichtman doesn't include plays where there is a shift on individual ratings. BIS doesn't quantify shifts but only states if there was any shift during a play. That really screws up the data on individuals.

There is a lot of this kind of "eye test" support going on these days.

[Can_of_corn]

The Orioles Shortstop and Second Baseman were out for half the season. Case closed.

Aren't those the same two guys who both led the league in turning double plays in 2014?

[Larry18]

Heh, not as bad as including shifts.

Right. He does include shifts on team defense which makes sense. The Orioles are one f the better teams in defensive positioning so I'm naturally leery of any claims that Hardy's defense has tanked.

[Frobby]

Is Range Factor a meaningful defensive metric?

I see out of 23 qualifying ML SS's Hardy was 21st in range factor, which supports my eye test that he doesn't cover much ground. The O's were also at the bottom of the league in turning DP's

IMHO Hardy will be below replacement level for the remainder of his contract, the only question is how far below, and when the O's bench him and/or eat his contract.

Range factor isn't a very good metric, because it doesn't account for how many balls were actually hit towards the shortstop. UZR's Range Rate had Hardy as average (+0.1) on Range, but above average in Error Rate (+6.1) and DP Rate (+0.9), so his overall UZR of 7.1 (10.1 UZR/150) was 7th among the 23 qualifiers in UZR (5th in UZR/150).

[DrungoHazewood]

Range factor isn't a very good metric, because it doesn't account for how many balls were actually hit towards the shortstop.

And how many balls were hit your way is one of those things that doesn't even remotely even out among players over a season. Your pitchers' GB rates, handedness, velocity, pitch assortment, plus park effects... just some of the things that bias range factor. RF was a decent interim step in the progression from "fielding percentage is everything" to modern metrics. In 1985 you were better off using RF than fielding percentage + gold gloves.

[Frobby]

Hardy reports that his shoulder is doing well. http://m.masn.mobi/school-of-roch/2015/12/jj-hardys-left-shoulder-is-good-strong-as-he-tries-to-rediscover-power-stroke.html

[backwardsk]

Hardy reports that his shoulder is doing well. http://m.masn.mobi/school-of-roch/2015/12/jj-hardys-left-shoulder-is-good-strong-as-he-tries-to-rediscover-power-stroke.html

I believe the decline of Hardy is greatly exaggerated. Backs are always concerning, but the Schoop collision set the season off on the wrong foot. A full off season of rest, coupled with playing time management, and I wouldn't be surprised to see a 2.5-3 win season.

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[FanSince88]

Hardy reports that his shoulder is doing well. http://m.masn.mobi/school-of-roch/2015/12/jj-hardys-left-shoulder-is-good-strong-as-he-tries-to-rediscover-power-stroke.html

Of course he does. What's he going to say, "my shoulder still hurts and I don't think I'm going to be very good next year?"

[Orioles4Life21]

Of course he does. What's he going to say, "my shoulder still hurts and I don't think I'm going to be very good next year?"

There is a huge amount of middle ground between those two things.

[OregonBird]

After reading that link I wish I could be more optimistic. Torn labrums are a pesky injury and unless he limits his cuts I wonder how long it will take before the repetitive nature of baseball causes a flare up.

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[Frobby]

Some OPS projections I have seen for Hardy so far:

ZiPS: .641

Marcel: .664

Steamer: .663

Bill James: .658

Ron Shandler: .634

Seems like they all expect a mild bounce-back from last year's .564, but nothing earth-shattering.