Connolly rates Chen returning to the Orioles at 1 out of 10

[Roll Tide]

No. He should have done his job and drafted better players. He should have hired better scouts and minor league instructors.

For the price of a stiff like De Aza he could have had the best scouting department in O's history

And if your team lacks quality talent in the minors that can be major league ready, maybe you shouldn't draft HSplayers that take 6 years to get to the majors. Are HS players cheaper? Lol

It's more than bad luck that 32 years have passed since the O's have played in World Series game. Incompetence in the front office has been a major factor

What does this have to do with my post?

[Frobby]

What does this have to do with my post?

Nothing. Nor does it have anything to do with the thread topic.

[Frobby]

The more I think about it, the more I think the smart move is to QO Chen and go sign Kazmir.

[weams]

The more I think about it, the more I think the smart move is to QO Chen and go sign Kazmir.

Absolutely.

[wildcard]

The more I think about it, the more I think the smart move is to QO Chen and go sign Kazmir.

Before talking about what it would cost to sign Kazmir, what kind of numbers do you think Kazmir would put up with the O's in a smaller park and why?

[Frobby]

Before talking about what it would cost to sign Kazmir, what kind of numbers do you think Kazmir would put up with the O's in a smaller park and why?

Well, he has a 106 ERA+ for his career (that's park adjusted). One the one hand, that number has usually been higher when he's been healthy, and on the other hand, he's at an age where he should be declining a bit. Overall I'd say he holds serve and posts a 106 ERA+ the next three years, or maybe slightly less. So maybe a 3.80-4.00 ERA pitching for us?

Cost? Less than Chen, I think, and for fewer years. Plus the pick we get to keep.

[mdbdotcom]

Well, he has a 106 ERA+ for his career (that's park adjusted). One the one hand, that number has usually been higher when he's been healthy, and on the other hand, he's at an age where he should be declining a bit. Overall I'd say he holds serve and posts a 106 ERA+ the next three years, or maybe slightly less. So maybe a 3.80-4.00 ERA pitching for us?

Cost? Less than Chen, I think, and for fewer years. Plus the pick we get to keep.

He had a big home park in Oakland and a small home park in Houston, so if we throw out both of them and look at how he did on the road, he posted a 3.65 ERA. I agree that 3.80-4.00 for the O's is about what we should expect as long as he doesn't face the Blue Jays.

[wildcard]

Well, he has a 106 ERA+ for his career (that's park adjusted). One the one hand, that number has usually been higher when he's been healthy, and on the other hand, he's at an age where he should be declining a bit. Overall I'd say he holds serve and posts a 106 ERA+ the next three years, or maybe slightly less. So maybe a 3.80-4.00 ERA pitching for us?

Cost? Less than Chen, I think, and for fewer years. Plus the pick we get to keep.

I think its important to look a Kazmir last three years. Career numbers don't tell the story. Kazmir came back from injuries that cost him him the 2012 season. In 2013 he was over 4.00 for Cleveland. Then he goes to the big park in Oakland and does well until he is traded to Houston where his ERA is back over 4.00 again.

Camden Yards is more like Houston's park than Oakland's. I think we have to expect an ERA over 4.00 with the Orioles. And is that really what you want to pay for?

[Can_of_corn]

Well, he has a 106 ERA+ for his career (that's park adjusted). One the one hand, that number has usually been higher when he's been healthy, and on the other hand, he's at an age where he should be declining a bit. Overall I'd say he holds serve and posts a 106 ERA+ the next three years, or maybe slightly less. So maybe a 3.80-4.00 ERA pitching for us?

Cost? Less than Chen, I think, and for fewer years. Plus the pick we get to keep.

Does that ERA+ include his stint in Indy league ball?

[wildcard]

He had a big home park in Oakland and a small home park in Houston, so if we throw out both of them and look at how he did on the road, he posted a 3.65 ERA. I agree that 3.80-4.00 for the O's is about what we should expect as long as he doesn't face the Blue Jays.

That makes some sense. Are you willing to give up the O's first round pick for him?

[mdbdotcom]

That makes some sense. Are you willing to give up the O's first round pick for him?

He was traded mid-season, so he can't be offered a QO.

[Frobby]

That makes some sense. Are you willing to give up the O's first round pick for him?

We don't have to -- that's the whole point. Kazmir was traded at the deadline and therefore can't get a QO and does not cost a comp pick. So if he replaces Chen, we gain one pick.

[Can_of_corn]

Well, he has a 106 ERA+ for his career (that's park adjusted). One the one hand, that number has usually been higher when he's been healthy, and on the other hand, he's at an age where he should be declining a bit. Overall I'd say he holds serve and posts a 106 ERA+ the next three years, or maybe slightly less. So maybe a 3.80-4.00 ERA pitching for us?

Cost? Less than Chen, I think, and for fewer years. Plus the pick we get to keep.

Does that ERA+ include his stint in Indy league ball?

Since you didn't bother to answer my question and I am no longer on mobile...

The 106 ERA+ you cited did not count his stint in Independent ball.

His ERA with the Skeeters (Atlantic League) was a robust 5.34, not sure how that translates into ERA+. He also had a 4.37 ERA in the PRWL but that was only 22.2 IP.

[weams]

I think its important to look a Kazmir last three years. Career numbers don't tell the story. Kazmir came back from injuries that cost him him the 2012 season. In 2013 he was over 4.00 for Cleveland. Then he goes to the big park in Oakland and does well until he is traded to Houston where his ERA is back over 4.00 again.

Camden Yards is more like Houston's park than Oakland's. I think we have to expect an ERA over 4.00 with the Orioles. And is that really what you want to pay for?

Yeah. I think he is better than Chen at a discount. Plus he is not so emotional.

[weams]

We don't have to -- that's the whole point. Kazmir was traded at the deadline and therefore can't get a QO and does not cost a comp pick. So if he replaces Chen, we gain one pick.

And that makes it really the sensible thing to do.