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Dan Connolly: O'Day a Closer?


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http://www.carrollcountytimes.com/bs-sp-orioles-oday-free-agent-profile-1102-20151101-story.html

O'Day has had a better track record of durability than Miller, now the Yankees closer, and has done the closer's job competently when asked, including in September when he saved three straight games in Washington, D.C., while Britton was sidelined. If another team views O'Day as a closer, the money will probably be too much to pass up ? and he could even approach Miller's payday.
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I'd rather they let O'Day walk, trade Britton and make Givens the closer.

Actually, I'd be fine with that outright. To me, Givens is all that.

The money for O'Day can be much better allocated. Not that it will be, but it can be. We have lots of potential relief pitchers in the system.

Britton? I'd be fine with trying him in the rotation. I'd be fine with trading him. I'd rather not run him out there as a closer and then be unwilling to pay him and simply lose him to free agency.

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Some people on here (myself included) want O'Day to be the closer and trade Britton.

At this point this is the best way to allocate resources. You just have to think of it like this. Britton will probably make more than O'day the next three years. I expect them both to produce the way that they have for the next 3 years. So it makes sense to trade the one you can trade and not just lose one of them for nothing.

Option A: Keep Britton and lose O'day. Britton makes 6 million to close.

Option B: Keep Britton and O'day. Britton for 6 million and O'day for 8 million. That's probably 15% of our payroll just right there.

Option C: Keep O'day and trade Britton. Oday makes 8 million to close and we pick up a good MLB SP or OF/1B.

I'm telling you guys that Houston is a great trade partner for Britton. They have a log jam on their 40 man roster and they have a ton of talent. Combine that with winning and their bullpen costing them in the playoffs, and it's a great fit.

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He gets paid to produce this level of analysis?

Roch Kubatko says...

That's not to suggest that the Orioles haven't been in contact with agent Jeff Borris. They've had multiple discussions. However, time is running out and O'Day seems destined to test the market, where he could sift through offers covering four years.

Where he could get closer money.

Where he could move out of the Orioles' reach.

Plenty of teams need O'Day, whether it's in the same set-up role or to work the ninth inning. His resume includes both jobs.

The Tigers should covet him. The same is true of the Nationals and Mets. And that's just scratching the surface.

If you watched the World Series, you can appreciate how much the Mets need a reliever of O'Day's stature. And like every other team, they can start courting him on Friday, when the Orioles lose their exclusive negotiating rights.

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I am increasingly feeling that we are not likely contending in 2016, so I am more and more in the trade Britton camp. If O'Day makes it to free agency Friday, he will certainly be gone. I think all the free agents are going to sign elsewhere except maybe Pearce. The new bullpen arms will need to come from some combination of Givens, Drake, Wright, etc. But, if you are not contending in 2016, this is less of an issue than trying to get some very good prospects now for Britton and not leaping into any bad free agent contracts. The larger question is whether you go for a whole hog rebuild and trade Jones as well, but that is for another day.

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If we keep both Britton and O'Day, we had better try Britton at SP during the spring. Can always scale him back to being closer if it doesn't work, but harder to do the opposite. Team needs starters more than they need bullpen help right now.

Even if we keep Chen or sign a Chen equivalent, a #2/#3 starter (Zach's absolute ceiling is a #2, but he could be a decent #3) is worth more to this team right now than an A+ closer. Especially a lefty like Zach. At least one of Ubaldo, Tillman, or Gonzo will either be ineffective or injured in 2016...you can take that to the bank. Why not throw Britton in the mix during the spring...if nothing else he'll push those guys. You can always slide him back to the BP if it doesn't work at any point during the season.

I'm fine with keeping Britton as a closer if they let O'Day walk, I'm fine with O'Day being a closer if they trade Zach, and if they're serious about rebuilding I'm fine to let both go. But we can't continue with the status quo. Too many other huge holes in this team that the late-inning bullpen can't compensate for, despite their great talent.

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I ve been advocating the rebuild since before the deadline. This team will almost certainly be worse even if the budget is 120. I don't think it's going to be that high. They haven't replaced Cruz and attempts to replace Nick were only marginal. They are losing Davis, Chen, and O'Day. Wieters is gone as well for the comp. best they can do now is commit to playing for 2017. Trade off anybody you can get a good package for and try to extend Manny, Schoop,and Gausman. If an extension can not be reached deal everyone.

Rather than taking the middle road that never will work they need to go one way or the other. Bank the 40 million plus for 2-3 seasons and that will offset having this problem happening later on one player. If Angelos was a good owner he would agree to stock pile the money resources for later

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