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Connolly's scale of return: 6 for Parra


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Spending money on Parra is stupid. I'd rather give the job to Alvarez or Urritia and save the money for something else. Parra does make a difference in winning and losing.
Not sure Urritia is a big league player, not something I want to depend on.

Jury is out on Alverez.

At this point I'd say go with Alvarez/Urrutia for the peanuts they are making over committing anything significant for Parra.

Parra for 2/10, maybe 3/12, I'm not going to be upset about (luke warm at best), anything more and I don't see the value.

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The problem with signing Parra is that there is some chance that his awful hitting performance with the O's down the stretch represents an inability to adjust to AL pitching, rather than just a slump.

I think his defensive decline is for real. It shows up in the numbers and in the eyeball test.

I wouldn't even give him 2/$10. Signing him would mean forgoing the chance to find a better solution for RF.

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This thread got me thinking, which is probably dangerous. You know that Tom Tango has Marcels, the world's simplest projection system. That gave me the idea for the Marcels of contracts. So in five minutes I build the world's simplest contract estimator in Excel. It does this:

1. You fill in the last four years of a player's WAR of your choosing. It calculates a weighted average to make an established level of performance.

2. It assumes that a win in free agency is worth $7M, inflating at 5% per year.

3. It assumes that a player will decline at half a win a year.

4. It assumes that any year worth less than zero will be paid at the MLB minimum of $500k.

For Parra it spits out an established value of 1.3 wins/year, and says his contract should be either 2/15 or 3/17.

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I don't know if this merits its own thread, but I plugged in a few others to see what my contracts Marcels spits out. Note: you have to eyeball where the contract probably ends, often where they slip to about replacement-level. All Fangraphs WAR estimates. Chris Davis gets 5/118 or 6/131. Chen 4/52. O'Day 3/17. Wieters 3/24, but that's with two injured seasons weighted most heavily. Remember this is simplistic, but consistent.

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