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Connolly's scale of return: 6 for Parra


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Parra is a solid 4th outfielder on a upper Division team or a regular on a lower end team. Anyone expecting more than that will be disappointed though he's probably better than what he showed with the Orioles at the end of this year.

Well, that takes care of that. Look no further as to where this team is headed.

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I don't know if this merits its own thread, but I plugged in a few others to see what my contracts Marcels spits out. Note: you have to eyeball where the contract probably ends, often where they slip to about replacement-level. All Fangraphs WAR estimates. Chris Davis gets 5/118 or 6/131. Chen 4/52. O'Day 3/17. Wieters 3/24, but that's with two injured seasons weighted most heavily. Remember this is simplistic, but consistent.
Except for Davis these seem pretty accurate to me. Actually I wouldn't give Davis that much but he'll get much more.
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He was worth -0.8 wins in 238 PAs. That's pretty impressive.

He's a replacement level player, no significant amount of money should be spent on him. I honestly don't understand why he seems to be a target at all.

Agreed ... Duquette is a fool if he's willing to pay him more than 4-5 per for 3 years. Parra is a bad gamble imo

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I don't know if this merits its own thread, but I plugged in a few others to see what my contracts Marcels spits out. Note: you have to eyeball where the contract probably ends, often where they slip to about replacement-level. All Fangraphs WAR estimates. Chris Davis gets 5/118 or 6/131. Chen 4/52. O'Day 3/17. Wieters 3/24, but that's with two injured seasons weighted most heavily. Remember this is simplistic, but consistent.

And then you have to add 1 year plus 17% to determine what some idiot GM will pay.

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I'm not certain I said that ;)

I don't think Dan will give him a big contract

If you didn't say it, you simply didn't say it yet.

I hope the decision on whether or not Parra is signed is on the bottom of his to do list, and that the money Parra wants will be gone by the time he gets to it. I expect Parra to return to the NL, where he has been more successful.

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My contract estimator, using numbers from the end of last year, spit out 4/43 for Cruz and 3/19 or 4/19 (i.e. by year four he's done) for Markakis. 3/12 for Miller. Make of it what you will.
If you plug in Cruz' 2015 numbers how does that affect his price? I'm sure your estimator didn't anticipate this seasons numbers.
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If you plug in Cruz' 2015 numbers how does that affect his price? I'm sure your estimator didn't anticipate this seasons numbers.

Does anyone who isn't on LSD project a career year at 34/35? Not knowing his age it spits out 4/80. His established level is now 3.4 wins/year weighting the last four at 4, 3, 2, 1.

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So he is projected at 70M and you are paying 56?

Well, "projected" by an Excel spreadsheet that doesn't know he turns 36 in the middle of next year and just assumes he'll decline at half a win a year. Like the original Marcels I assume it sometimes breaks down at the edges. My guess is that Cruz has a much less linear decline.

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Cruz is interesting. If you use his numbers through last year, but instead of weighting his last four seasons by 4-3-2-1 you instead weight them 10-3-2-1 you end up pretty close to the contract he got. All you have to do is assume that last year was, by far, the most important thing you know about his performance.

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Parra is a solid 4th outfielder on a upper Division team or a regular on a lower end team. Anyone expecting more than that will be disappointed though he's probably better than what he showed with the Orioles at the end of this year.

That's correct, we need an upgrade over Parra, not Parra Part II

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