Can Tillman be fixed?

[DrungoHazewood]

There is a lot of pitching on the market this year. A guy like Tillman would be easy to replace.

For Tillman's 2016 salary?

[weams]

For Tillman's 2016 salary?

Here, I'll say it. Tillman is not broke. Craziness. He sprained his ankle when he was pitching great. It took him half the season to pitch himself into shape after the marriage and honeymoon.

[oriole]

For Tillman's 2016 salary?

That's hard to say. He could give us a 5.00 ERA for 170 innings and no one would be all that surprised. The fact that he is still making a reasonable amount and has had fairly recent success tells me he has some trade value. Maybe we fill in a corner OF spot or 1b with a Tillman trade and free up even more money to make sense of going after a Zimmerman type.

[DrungoHazewood]

That's hard to say. He could give us a 5.00 ERA for 170 innings and no one would be all that surprised. The fact that he is still making a reasonable amount and has had fairly recent success tells me he has some trade value. Maybe we fill in a corner OF spot or 1b with a Tillman trade and free up even more money to make sense of going after a Zimmerman type.

I'm not much of a believer in the "this guy sucks and we know it, so we'll capitalize on his trade value to bring back something better" model. How much are we really going to save? He's going into an arb case with a 4.99 ERA after making $4.3M in '15. I'd be surprised if he got more than maybe $6M. Even if he just pitches to his career FIP of 4.39 you'd be doing well to get a pitcher of that quality and durability for $6M.

[oriole]

I'm not much of a believer in the "this guy sucks and we know it, so we'll capitalize on his trade value to bring back something better" model. How much are we really going to save? He's going into an arb case with a 4.99 ERA after making $4.3M in '15. I'd be surprised if he got more than maybe $6M. Even if he just pitches to his career FIP of 4.39 you'd be doing well to get a pitcher of that quality and durability for $6M.

That's why he has value in a trade and not a non tender candidate. Let me be clear that I don't think we are getting any top prospect for him but maybe a solid reclamation guy or someone who doesn't have an opportunity on his respective club.

[Il BuonO]

So, pretty comprehensive analysis here by Camden Depot. The author even has a big sample which includes Jim Palmer and Steve Carlton. They both experienced declining SO rates at times in their careers.

Palmer has made some comparisons with himself and Tillman. Tillman isn't Palmer, but one thing that may have been lost last season was his continuing use of the two seam FB to induce more ground balls.

There is a good graph that illustrates it.

http://camdendepot.blogspot.com/2015/12/dont-worry-about-chris-tillmans-k-bb.html?m=1

Personally, there is some credence to the idea his conditioning wasn't at an optimal level coming into the season. Very few players can get away with being overweight and performing at a high level.

If he can get back into reasonable shape and continue his use of the two seam FB while the K/BB% normalizes he can be effective. He should be motivated after the last season he had.

[Can_of_corn]

So, pretty comprehensive analysis here by Camden Depot. The author even has a big sample which includes Jim Palmer and Steve Carlton. They both experienced declining SO rates at times in their careers.

Palmer has made some comparisons with himself and Tillman. Tillman isn't Palmer, but one thing that may have been lost last season was his continuing use of the two seam FB to induce more ground balls.

There is a good graph that illustrates it.

http://camdendepot.blogspot.com/2015/12/dont-worry-about-chris-tillmans-k-bb.html?m=1

Personally, there is some credence to the idea his conditioning wasn't at an optimal level coming into the season. Very few players can get away with being overweight and performing at a high level.

If he can get back into reasonable shape and continue his use of the two seam FB while the K/BB% normalizes he can be effective. He should be motivated after the last season he had.

Isn't his 4 seam fastball the better pitch?

[El Gordo]

I think conditioning contributed but I remember an interview with Wallace where he stressed the ankle injury and how he came back from it too soon.

[Il BuonO]

Isn't his 4 seam fastball the better pitch?

Sequencing matters. Tillman is effective with the four seam FB with two strikes up in the zone. FG had a great piece about Gausman and Paxton pitching up in the zone. I've always thought Tillman is effective with the four seam FB but it has to be used in the right situations.

Early in the count when hitters are looking FB his two seam is a better pitch. It has more movement, hence the increase in ground balls. I noticed the movement last year. One of the big complaints about his FB in the past has been the lack of movement.

Tillman needs to use both FBs to be effective and of course have better command of his secondary offerings, but I thought the graph was telling. Most people don't think of him as a GB pitcher and his increased use of the two seam last season produced some good results at a time when he had been struggling before the ankle injury.

[Beef Supreme]

[/b]

That's why he has value in a trade and not a non tender candidate. Let me be clear that I don't think we are getting any top prospect for him but maybe a solid reclamation guy or someone who doesn't have an opportunity on his respective club.

I'm with you: trade him while you can get something back. Don't extend him and commit multi-millions. And don't let him walk at year's end and get nothing (since it would be a bad idea to QO him at ~$16MM).

Also, I don't see how a healed ankle is going to help him grip his curveball. I have never seen a pitcher lose the ball out of his hand like Tillman does - not even close. Maybe "fixing" him means increasing his hand strength. Buy him one of these: http://www.reflexpainmanagement.com/images/categories/contour%20Hand%20grips.jpg

[Beef Supreme]

[Il BuonO]

I'm with you: trade him while you can get something back. Don't extend him and commit multi-millions. And don't let him walk at year's end and get nothing (since it would be a bad idea to QO him at ~$16MM).

Also, I don't see how a healed ankle is going to help him grip his curveball. I have never seen a pitcher lose the ball out of his hand like Tillman does - not even close. Maybe "fixing" him means increasing his hand strength. Buy him one of these: http://www.reflexpainmanagement.com/images/categories/contour Hand grips.jpg

You aren't getting anything for him right now, it would be selling low. Granted Duquette doesn't have a great record in his current tenure of selling high on assets, save for Guthrie. They may be able to get something come mid season if he can return to anything that resembles what he looked like prior to last season.

[Beef Supreme]

You aren't getting anything for him right now, it would be selling low. Granted Duquette doesn't have a great record in his current tenure of selling high on assets, save for Guthrie. They may be able to get something come mid season if he can return to anything that resembles what he looked like prior to last season.

Those are fair points. Of course, Tillman does have some value as a starter -- it's just a matter of which teams might be interested. If some team calls on him, I hope DD keeps an open mind.

And you are also right that there can be a "midseason premium" as a starter for a team that experiences injury or has starters who are performing not well. I know there are a lot of people on the forum who have advocated extending him but I do not now/did not last year advocate extending Tillman.

[Camden_yardbird]

If he is in shape he will have a much better season. That probably contributed to all of his problems including the injury.

[wildcard]

Those are fair points. Of course, Tillman does have some value as a starter -- it's just a matter of which teams might be interested. If some team calls on him, I hope DD keeps an open mind.

And you are also right that there can be a "midseason premium" as a starter for a team that experiences injury or has starters who are performing not well. I know there are a lot of people on the forum who have advocated extending him but I do not now/did not last year advocate extending Tillman.

Can't see trading Tillman unless the O's have something better to replace him. And they don't.