Fangraphs: Valuation of Heyward

[weams]

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/trying-to-put-a-value-on-jason-heyward-in-free-agency/

Jason Heyward is a good player. Up for debate is precisely how good Jason Heyward has been during his career, and more importantly for whichever teams signs him this winter, how good Heyward will be moving forward. Attempting to measure defense with advanced statistics like UZR and DRS has its critics, and attempting to place a value on it can be difficult. Heyward has been an above average offensive player, incredible on defense, and heading into free agency a few months after turning 26 years old, provides few realistic players for comparison. Heyward will get paid. How much will he be worth?

Heyward's main drawback, perhaps only drawback, as a player seeking more than $100 million is his lack of power

[weams]

The names brought up most recently with regard to Heyward are Jacoby Ellsbury, who got seven years and $153 million from the New York Yankees two years ago, and Carl Crawford, who received seven years and $142 million from the Boston Red Sox five years ago.

My fear.

[weams]

Name PA wRC+ Off Def WAR

Andruw Jones 3971 113 69.3 174.9 36.6

Jim Fregosi 3488 118 72.3 78.2 27.0

George Brett 3114 125 85.0 48.3 24.7

Chet Lemon 2815 123 70.3 19.7 18.9

Troy Glaus 2870 119 76.1 18.5 18.7

Ryne Sandberg 2765 110 47.0 41.5 18.7

Eric Chavez 2930 118 68.7 20.6 18.7

Paul Molitor 2748 117 69.0 7.6 17.3

Ruben Sierra 3856 115 66.5 -35.0 16.6

Terry Puhl 3154 112 45.8 3.1 15.8

Carlos Baerga 2857 114 50.4 6.5 15.3

Curt Blefary 2881 121 67.1 -35.4 12.7

Tony Conigliaro 3230 124 83.7 -66.9 12.1

Carney Lansford 2859 111 36.5 -27.5 10.9

Carlos May 2954 122 72.1 -81.8 9.1

AVERAGE 3100 117 65.3 11.5 18.2

Jason Heyward 3429 118 94.5 61.9 27.8

Offense comps.

[Can_of_corn]

I posted the same thing, at the same time, in the QO thread.

You see the part where the bat alone is worth 159M?

And you don't have to worry, the O's are not winning the bidding, my guess is they don't get past an initial phone call.

[Can_of_corn]

Offense comps.

Odd, I don't see Nick.

I do however seen some guys in the Hall.

[weams]

I posted the same thing, at the same time, in the QO thread.

You see the part where the bat alone is worth 159M?

And you don't have to worry, the O's are not winning the bidding, my guess is they don't get past an initial phone call.

I see that he might be Mickey Mantle. Or something.

[weams]

Odd, I don't see Nick.

I do however seen some guys in the Hall.

You pinned me on Nick.

[weams]

Odd, I don't see Nick.

I do however seen some guys in the Hall.

I was wrong. He's comped to Corey Patterson.

[Can_of_corn]

I was wrong. He's comped to Corey Patterson.

Nick is? Oh how the mighty have fallen.

I bought into Nick's early seasons as well.

It was hard not to.

[24fps]

Nick is? Oh how the mighty have fallen.

I bought into Nick's early seasons as well.

It was hard not to.

We all did. There wasn't much else to get excited about in those days.

[Frobby]

My fear.

Ellsbury was going into his age 30 season, Crawford his age 29 season, when they were free agents. Heyward's going into his age 26 season. That's hugely important. This guy has many prime years left.

[weams]

Ellsbury was going into his age 30 season, Crawford his age 29 season, when they were free agents. Heyward's going into his age 26 season. That's hugely important. This guy has many prime years left.

Makes sense.

[El Gordo]

Whatever Heyward gets, Manny will get a lot more. Better defense at a more defensive critical position and a much better offense.

[Frobby]

Whatever Heyward gets, Manny will get a lot more. Better defense at a more defensive critical position and a much better offense.

True. I think we can kind of look at whatever Heyward gets as a floor for starting a negotiation with Manny, adding maybe $25-30 mm for the three arb years. In the end, Manny probably gets 40-50% more than Heyward will.