Hardball Times: A Year Early

[weams]

http://www.hardballtimes.com/sell-high-a-year-too-early/

As each of these trades illustrates, that is one peril of sell-high trades. The decision to sell high is usually a good one?provided you get equal or greater value in return. But the vagaries of baseball make that difficult indeed. If you sell high on your talented player, you presumably either buy high on another player or buy low on a number of prospects. In the former case, the player may also decline (see Milt Pappas) and in the latter case (see Ted Cox) the prospects may never develop. In the end, then, Rickey?s axiom may not help general managers as much as it promises.

[spiritof66]

Interesting speculation in this article about the Reds' evaluation of Milt Pappas in trading Frank to the O's before the 1966 season:

"Pappas may have looked [to the Reds] like a much better pitcher than he was. Thanks to Earl Weaver?s defense, and its death to flying things effect on balls in play, his ERA consistently came in well below his FIP."

Earl came to the Orioles as a coach in 1968 and was named manager later that season, more than two years after Pappas was traded. I guess "Billy Hitchcock's and Hank Bauer's defense" wouldn't have the same ring.