Beyond The Boxscore: The Year that Fister's Pitch Died

[weams]

http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2015/11/8/9687992/doug-fister-nationals-bad-two-seamer?utm_campaign=beyondtheboxscore&utm_content=chorus&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter

Fister suffered a steep decline after his 2013 and 2014 seasons, and at 31 years old, it would seem a little early to attribute all of his struggles solely to his age. Instead, it appears that the cause for his downfall is related to his declining two-seam fastball.

For the first time in Fister's career, his two seamer had a negative pitch value, which was likely driven by his declining velocity and horizontal movement.

His homer per fly ball rate increased to 19.5 percent from 12.3 percent last year and 7.5 percent in 2013. In addition to the increased homers, Fister's line drive rate allowed on the two seamer was at 30.4 percent, a career high. It was much easier to make solid contact against the pitch in 2015 than in previous years.

Fister's downfall couldn't have come at a worse time, as he's now a free agent coming off arguably the worst year of his career. His declining velocity is a red flag, and he might have to rebuild his value on an incentive-laden one-year deal.

[25 Nuggets]

That's pretty neat - all of his pitches more or less uniformly changed horizontal release point except the sinker, which still follows the curve. I'm guessing he had a conscious effort to work on that aspect during his career... and yet he recently regressed, especially his cutter.

Might have something to do with why his HR/9 went up last year, and his GB% went down.

[weams]

That's pretty neat - all of his pitches more or less uniformly changed horizontal release point except the sinker, which still follows the curve. I'm guessing he had a conscious effort to work on that aspect during his career... and yet he recently regressed, especially his cutter.

Might have something to do with why his HR/9 went up last year, and his GB% went down.

I'm afraid he is done.

[DrungoHazewood]

I'm afraid he is done.

Yep, so the Orioles 2016 rotation will be:

Fister

Tillman

Gonzalez

Ubaldo

Chris Jones

Gausman in a long relief, mopup role. Bud Norris brought back on an incentive-laden deal, ends up in the rotation when Jones has a 6.99 through May. Wilson and Wright packaged together to the A's to get our Davis replacement: Billy Butler.

Too early on a Monday for this many layers of nested anti-cynicism?

[Roll Tide]

Yep, so the Orioles 2016 rotation will be:

Fister

Tillman

Gonzalez

Ubaldo

Chris Jones

Gausman in a long relief, mopup role. Bud Norris brought back on an incentive-laden deal, ends up in the rotation when Jones has a 6.99 through May. Wilson and Wright packaged together to the A's to get our Davis replacement: Billy Butler.

Too early on a Monday for this many layers of nested anti-cynicism?

Wow ...Drungo is that you?

You forgot Worley in the rotation somewhere

[DrungoHazewood]

Wow ...Drungo is that you?

You forgot Worley in the rotation somewhere

Not that I believe any of that. I was just chiming in with the expected response. You know, the O's are going into 2016 with a $60M payroll and AAA players at six positions so Angelos' heirs can get rich while claiming it's all about MASN uncertainty. It's going to be a fun offseason, as usual, with every Norfolk depth signing spawning a thread about how this is a harbinger of the team moving to Montreal.

[25 Nuggets]

Not that I believe any of that. I was just chiming in with the expected response. You know, the O's are going into 2016 with a $60M payroll and AAA players at six positions so Angelos' heirs can get rich while claiming it's all about MASN uncertainty. It's going to be a fun offseason, as usual, with every Norfolk depth signing spawning a thread about how this is a harbinger of the team moving to Montreal.

You mean they're not moving to Montreal? :eektf:

[DrungoHazewood]

You mean they're not moving to Montreal? :eektf:

I heard the Mayflower trucks are circling OPACY as we type.

[weams]

I heard the Mayflower trucks are circling OPACY as we type.

Were the Orioles sold to Mark Cuban then?

[Can_of_corn]

Wow ...Drungo is that you?

You forgot Worley in the rotation somewhere

Gets his foot run over by an ice cream truck first day of spring training.