Who would you rather? Hayward or Davis

[weams]

Call me crazy but I'm not paying 20 million dollars a year long term to a guy who has shown power once in his career and never again. We are to assume at 26 that his will peak and he will show that but you are paying for potential not production and that is always very very dangerous. I'm not saying that Davis is the answer either with his high strikeout percentage but I'd be very wary of committing a long term deal to a guy that was a top prospect but has never fulfilled potential aside from very strong outfield defense.

This is a very good article on Heyward and Gordon (who I prefer to both guys actually).

http://triplebbaseball.mlblogs.com/2015/09/16/alex-gordon-and-jason-heyward-defying-war-this-offseason/

"Throughout writing this article, I actually came to the conclusion that I would rather have Alex Gordon than Jason Heyward, but that’s not what the article was about. The article was about how both are overvalued by the sabermetric community. I think Heyward gets around $140MM, and Gordon settles in at about $120MM. Both players have had the illusion of value created around them, but there’s not concrete evidence it actually exists. Teams do value defense and admire players like Heyward. But they also need to put a winning team on the field, and it needs concrete evidence to feel confident in investing in players. If Heyward and Gordon played a premium defensive position like centerfield, this is probably a completely different conversation. The market values defense. But it also values being smart enough to recognize relativity and when it needs to be applied."

Bless you.

[Slappy]

To those that think its Heyward and not even close... go back and compare Heyward's and Markakis' stats. Strikingly similar. I think Heyward goes down the same disappointing road. Count me in for Crush.

[Frobby]

Pretty sure we asked this once before. Should be a poll. I say Heyward again.

It was a poll, with Gordon, Cespedes and Upton thrown in:

http://forum.orioleshangout.com/forums/poll.php?pollid=5810&do=showresults

Davis topped Heyward, 42% to 31%.

[Can_of_corn]

To those that think its Heyward and not even close... go back and compare Heyward's and Markakis' stats. Strikingly similar. I think Heyward goes down the same disappointing road. Count me in for Crush.

Heyward:

rWAR/fWAR

6.4/4.7

2.5/1.9

5.8/6.5

3.7/3.4

6.2/5.2

6.2/6.0

Nick

2.5/2.6

4.2/4.1

7.4/6.0

2.9/2.1

2.3/2.4

2.5/1.7

1.7/1.6

.1/-.2

2.0/2.4

1.9/1.6

Now you can not be a fan of WAR but if there is any value at all to either flavor then you can not say that the production of the two players is comparable. Nice has had one very nice and one star level season. Heyward averages more production then Nick 's second best season.

[Frobby]

To those that think its Heyward and not even close... go back and compare Heyward's and Markakis' stats. Strikingly similar. I think Heyward goes down the same disappointing road. Count me in for Crush.

Perhaps you should compare Davis' stats to Adam Dunn's. They are similar to this point, in fact, Dunn's are significantly better. Why don't you think Davis goes down that same disappointing road? It's at least as valid comparison as Heyward and Markakis.

[24fps]

I've been in favor of acquiring Heyward for several weeks and that hasn't changed, although I'll repeat the point that as his AAV approaches $20 million the absence of his HR's becomes more glaring. I'm not interested in him for 10 years at that figure. My limit would be 8 years if he's going to get that much and he can certainly have his opt out after 5 years. Davis at 5 years and an AAV of no more than $24 million would be preferable to Heyward although I remain very concerned about his PED penalty exposure. He'll get more than that from some other team anyway so the probably moot.

If he can be had for a reasonable contract, the notion of Alex Gordon is gaining appeal with me.

[oriole]

Perhaps you should compare Davis' stats to Adam Dunn's. They are similar to this point, in fact, Dunn's are significantly better. Why don't you think Davis goes down that same disappointing road? It's at least as valid comparison as Heyward and Markakis.

Exactly. If Davis didn't strike out a ton I might not be worried but that's his game and age isn't going to be kind.

[DrungoHazewood]

Call me crazy but I'm not paying 20 million dollars a year long term to a guy who has shown power once in his career and never again. We are to assume at 26 that his will peak and he will show that but you are paying for potential not production and that is always very very dangerous. I'm not saying that Davis is the answer either with his high strikeout percentage but I'd be very wary of committing a long term deal to a guy that was a top prospect but has never fulfilled potential aside from very strong outfield defense.

This is a very good article on Heyward and Gordon (who I prefer to both guys actually).

http://triplebbaseball.mlblogs.com/2015/09/16/alex-gordon-and-jason-heyward-defying-war-this-offseason/

"Throughout writing this article, I actually came to the conclusion that I would rather have Alex Gordon than Jason Heyward, but that?s not what the article was about. The article was about how both are overvalued by the sabermetric community. I think Heyward gets around $140MM, and Gordon settles in at about $120MM. Both players have had the illusion of value created around them, but there?s not concrete evidence it actually exists. Teams do value defense and admire players like Heyward. But they also need to put a winning team on the field, and it needs concrete evidence to feel confident in investing in players. If Heyward and Gordon played a premium defensive position like centerfield, this is probably a completely different conversation. The market values defense. But it also values being smart enough to recognize relativity and when it needs to be applied."

Illusion of value? Defensive metrics are all illusion and hitting is all concrete facts? Is that the point? That the way to be sure a guy can play defense is that he's a center fielder? Gordon is Heyward in five years. It's funny that the quote talks about putting a winning team on the field and somehow uses that to denigrate Heyward and Gordon, who both played on excellent teams this year.

[DrungoHazewood]

I would take Heyward in a heartbeat, He hasn't even hit his prime, I think his power would approve in Camden Yards also.

He hasn't hit the age where an average player peaks. But there are many players who have their best season at 20 or 23 or 25 or 31 or 34. Heyward might be a guy whose best season was at 20, like Al Kaline.

[canonfaz]

I'll wait until I see the contract each one gets before voting. Should be interesting.

[mskrulz]

Illusion of value? Defensive metrics are all illusion and hitting is all concrete facts? Is that the point? That the way to be sure a guy can play defense is that he's a center fielder? Gordon is Heyward in five years. It's funny that the quote talks about putting a winning team on the field and somehow uses that to denigrate Heyward and Gordon, who both played on excellent teams this year.

I don't think that's what the quote does at all. I think it says that spending 20 million dollars on a guy that hasn't truly proven his worth with an "expectation" that he has yet to reach his potential with much of his worth being defensive is not a good value. I don't think the article is saying that they are not good team or "winning" players but they are also not 20 million dollar cornerstone players. Take Heyward or Gordon for that matter out of each's prospective lineup this past year and they are still excellent teams.

[sportsfan8703]

Make this a public poll so I can reference it for years to come.

I would much rather have the 5 win a year 26 year old.

I will be disappointed in the baseball community as a whole if the Davis contract ends up even close to the Heyward contract.

Why? Neither will be playing for the Orioles. We minus well argue the Ellsbury and Granderson contracts from a few offseason's ago. They have the same impact on us. Zero. Plus we get some data to see if they were "worth" it.

[ArtVanDelay]

Take Heyward or Gordon for that matter out of each's prospective lineup this past year and they are still excellent teams.

I don't understand how this is even the least bit relevant.

[mskrulz]

How many of us have actually looked at Heyward stat line and not just judged him by the perception of what he was supposed to be?

In the last 3 years only one was injury shortened here are Heyward's offensive numbers...

407 Games played

1502 At bats

412 Hits

38 Homeruns

156 RBI

.270 BA

.776, .735, .797 OPS

That's a guy that we want to give 20 million a year for 8 years or more???

[Can_of_corn]

Why? Neither will be playing for the Orioles. We minus well argue the Ellsbury and Granderson contracts from a few offseason's ago. They have the same impact on us. Zero. Plus we get some data to see if they were "worth" it.

So I can use and abuse it the next time someone wants to pay big for the 2019 version of Davis. Or the next time someone discounts the value of outfield defense. Maybe the next time someone acts like age isn't a huge factor in most players.