Jump to content

Who would you rather? Hayward or Davis


connja

Who Would You Sign?  

30 members have voted

  1. 1. Who Would You Sign?



Recommended Posts

How many of us have actually looked at Heyward stat line and not just judged him by the perception of what he was supposed to be?

In the last 3 years only one was injury shortened here are Heyward's offensive numbers...

407 Games played

1502 At bats

412 Hits

38 Homeruns

156 RBI

.270 BA

.776, .735, .797 OPS

That's a guy that we want to give 20 million a year for 8 years or more???

Yes...

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Replies 72
  • Created
  • Last Reply
I don't understand how this is even the least bit relevant.

It's relevant to the quote I was responding to if you read it.

"Illusion of value? Defensive metrics are all illusion and hitting is all concrete facts? Is that the point? That the way to be sure a guy can play defense is that he's a center fielder? Gordon is Heyward in five years. It's funny that the quote talks about putting a winning team on the field and somehow uses that to denigrate Heyward and Gordon, who both played on excellent teams this year."

Link to comment
Share on other sites

How many of us have actually looked at Heyward stat line and not just judged him by the perception of what he was supposed to be?

In the last 3 years only one was injury shortened here are Heyward's offensive numbers...

407 Games played

1502 At bats

412 Hits

38 Homeruns

156 RBI

.270 BA

.776, .735, .797 OPS

That's a guy that we want to give 20 million a year for 8 years or more???

But his defensive metrics are off the charts!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

It's relevant to the quote I was responding to if you read it.

"Illusion of value? Defensive metrics are all illusion and hitting is all concrete facts? Is that the point? That the way to be sure a guy can play defense is that he's a center fielder? Gordon is Heyward in five years. It's funny that the quote talks about putting a winning team on the field and somehow uses that to denigrate Heyward and Gordon, who both played on excellent teams this year."

I did read it. Still completely irrelevant. You're basically saying that Heyward and Gordon don't deserve the contracts that they'll get because they had good teammates this year.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I did read it. Still completely irrelevant. You're basically saying that Heyward and Gordon don't deserve the contracts that they'll get because they had good teammates this year.

NOOOO I'm not at all. I'm responding to a premise that we are discounting Gordon and Heyward's value as winners because the article stated that teams are looking to win on the field and Gordon and Heyward played on excellent teams. Yes, its true that Gordon and Heyward played on excellent teams but my interpretation of the article is that teams need to look past some sabermetrics when handing out mind boggling contracts to guys that are NOW going to be counted on to be cornerstone players based on the money that they are now going to be paid. The fact that Heyward and Gordon played on winning teams at their current salaries doesn't take into account their importance to another team when they are making a larger share of the payroll and the roles that they are going to take on in relation to the salary they are making, the team and teammates they play with, and the percentage of payroll they are taking on. Heyward and Gordon's defensive ability and offensive capabilities meshed great with the Royals and Cardinals but that doesn't necessarily ring true in every situation especially considering the money that they will now be paid.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I don't think that's what the quote does at all. I think it says that spending 20 million dollars on a guy that hasn't truly proven his worth with an "expectation" that he has yet to reach his potential with much of his worth being defensive is not a good value.

I think Heyward is fully worth $20M a year at his current level of performance. He's 26 so there's not a lot of hope that he'll get better, but there is some wiggle room in the idea that he's especially been hurt by the expanding strike zone and one of these years MLB may try to change that. But he doesn't have to break out, he's already a six win player. Even if a substantial part of that six wins has a somewhat higher risk associated with it due to defensive metrics.

He's still a 26-year-old with an established value two wins a year north of Adam Jones.

I don't think the article is saying that they are not good team or "winning" players but they are also not 20 million dollar cornerstone players. Take Heyward or Gordon for that matter out of each's prospective lineup this past year and they are still excellent teams.

Right, so the winning team argument was both wrong and irrelevant. Heyward and Gordon are excellent players who happened to be on excellent teams.

If Heyward is just a pretty good player, and not a free agent you'd pay $20M a year for, there probably aren't many free agents in the next five years you would pay that for. Even if you are a total defensive metrics skeptic and think Heyward is an average defensive player he's worth three wins a year, or $21M/yr on the free agent market.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

...but my interpretation of the article is that teams need to look past some sabermetrics when handing out mind boggling contracts to guys that are NOW going to be counted on to be cornerstone players based on the money that they are now going to be paid.

To me that reads "I know the best information available says these guys are worth $100M+ contracts, but when we're going to commit that much money we need to trust other information that is probably worse."

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I think Heyward is fully worth $20M a year at his current level of performance. He's 26 so there's not a lot of hope that he'll get better, but there is some wiggle room in the idea that he's especially been hurt by the expanding strike zone and one of these years MLB may try to change that. But he doesn't have to break out, he's already a six win player. Even if a substantial part of that six wins has a somewhat higher risk associated with it due to defensive metrics.

He's still a 26-year-old with an established value two wins a year north of Adam Jones.

Right, so the winning team argument was both wrong and irrelevant. Heyward and Gordon are excellent players who happened to be on excellent teams.

If Heyward is just a pretty good player, and not a free agent you'd pay $20M a year for, there probably aren't many free agents in the next five years you would pay that for. Even if you are a total defensive metrics skeptic and think Heyward is an average defensive player he's worth three wins a year, or $21M/yr on the free agent market.

He is absolutely worth 20 million a year for seven years. absolutely. I would not give it to him because of the pick. But he is worth it.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.


  • Posts

    • I think they will move on from Kimbrel, especially if Felix returns and is healthy later this summer. I think they could make better use of the $12 million or so on the option. 
    • I covered about 15 consecutive All Star games at ESPN. In some of the early years, the players wore the uniforms they played with and seeing those players take batting practice wearing those uniforms was glorious to watch.Over the years I got to see Joe DiMaggio wear a Yankees uniform...Willie Mays wear a Giants uniform, Henry Aaron wearing a Braves uniform. I felt like I was transformed  back in time. It gave me goosebumps. One ASG in Pittsburgh, I saw Brooks Robinson take batting practice wearing his Oriole uniform. I took this picture. I showed it to Brooks years later. He smiled and said, 'Roy, look at the smile on my face. I loved to wear that uniform and take batting practice wearing it." Then he said something that moved me. He said, wistfully, "Thats the LAST time I ever took batting practice wearing my uniform for the Orioles." I believe MLB lost its soul a  little bit when they went for those silly "Beer League" uniforms, and those ridiculous day-glo colors too. Baseball, for me, more than ANY other sport is about tradition and legacy. Those All Star uniforms we saw the other night were almost vulgar, and something close to an insult on the tradition and history of the game.Brooks Robinson is gone now, and so are many who PROUDLY wore those uniforms and made history wearing them.I feel honored that I got to take Brooks Robinson taking batting practice for the last time wearing that uniform. I hear baseball, next year will go back to the tradition using the standard (not those grotesque city connect) uniforms and it will re- acquaint the nation with the uniforms the way they SHOULD look in a classic exhibition.It's never too late to honor the game and the uniforms great players wore doing great things.I just wish baseball would have gotten the message about 10 years ago.
    • @Greg Pappas I mentioned Brebbia as a second player in a Crochet or Fedde deal. I think he would be a nice addition. 
    • They have the option on Kimbrell.  They will likely exercise it and hope for a really powerful back of the bullpen. 
    • If they received 4 or 5 players for Skubal it shortens their retool period.    On Twitter, Most Tiger fans seem to think a fair deal is one of Holliday, Basallo, Mayo, or  Kjerstad…Followed By Norby, McDermott or Povich, and two more. Saw Beavers and Stowers among the names.  
    • Using the MLB Trade Rumors Top 50 Trade Candidates list that was mentioned somewhere earlier, here is a quick list of guys that could be viable trade targets (in no particular order, although Erceg is my actual favorite): RH Reliever Lucas Erceg (29), A's -- Formerly an infield prospect with the Brewers, he only converted to the mound in 2021. The 6’3″ righty may be new to pitching in pro ball, but you wouldn’t know it by looking at his 3.09 ERA, 27.6% strikeout rate, 8.2% walk rate, 50% grounder rate and 0.84 HR/9. Erceg is averaging 98.4 mph on four-seamer and 98.5 mph on his sinker, coupling those fastballs with a mid-80s slider and low-90s “changeup.” At 29, he’s four years older than Miller despite having similar service time and identical windows of club control. The asking price won’t be as high as Miller, who’s simply been a more dominant reliever, but it’s also hard to believe the A’s plucked Erceg from Milwaukee in exchange for only cash last year. His trade value has exploded since then. LH Starter Tyler Anderson (34), Angels -- Anderson is headed to his second All-Star Game at age 34. That’s largely a reflection of the veteran southpaw’s excellent 2.81 ERA over 112 innings. This is the kind of production the Halos envisioned when they signed him to a three-year, $39MM free agent deal over the 2022-23 offseason. Anderson’s first season in Orange County was much tougher, as he allowed well over five earned runs per nine. All 29 other teams passed on the chance to take on the remainder of Anderson’s contract via waivers last August.  While the run prevention and the All-Star nod have raised Anderson’s stock over the past few months, he probably has less trade value than fans might anticipate. Anderson has mediocre strikeout (16.8%) and walk (10.3%) rates. He’s averaging a career-low 89.2 MPH on his fastball. There’s certainly value in the kind of stability Anderson has provided, though teams aren’t likely to surrender much prospect capital if they’re also taking on his $13MM salaries for the next year and a half. RH Reliever Dylan Floro (33), Nationals -- Rental relievers are always in demand, and Floro has both pitched well. The 33-year-old is earning $2.25MM and has pitched to a 2.06 ERA with a 20.5% strikeout rate and 6.4% walk rate. He’s not going to last the whole season without allowing a home run, as is currently the case, but even with some HR/FB regression, Floro has looked solid. RH Reliever John Brebbia (34), White Sox -- After an awful stretch in mid to late May, Brebbia has been the Sox’ best reliever and quietly been one of the best relievers in the game. That might generate a few eye rolls, but it’s not hyperbole. Since June 1, he’s posted a 0.98 ERA with a gaudy 37.5% strikeout rate and 5.6% walk rate. It’s only 18 1/3 innings, but Brebbia has his season ERA down to 4.38, and the K-BB profile is genuinely interesting (29.6 K%, 5.9 BB%). He’s on a one-year, $5.5MM deal with a mutual option for 2025. Mutual options are almost never exercised, so he’ll be treated as a pure rental and perhaps a deceptively attractive one. RH Closer Pete Fairbanks (30), Rays -- Fairbanks has been Tampa’s closer for a while now, with 25 saves last year and 15 so far this year. But his track record as an excellent reliever goes back farther than that. Since the start of 2020, he has tossed 170 1/3 innings with a 2.75 ERA, 33% strikeout rate and 10.1% walk rate. He and the Rays signed a modest extension in January of 2023, one that pays him $3.666MM over the 2023-25 seasons with a club option for 2026. That option has a $7MM base salary but incentives and escalators, as well as a $1MM buyout. The Rays don’t need to trade him with that extra control but it would be in their M.O. to make him available before the contract expires. RH Closer Kyle Finnegan (32), Nationals -- Under club control through the 2025 season, Finnegan, the Nationals’ closer, is earning a $5.1MM salary.  After struggling with walks early in the season, the hard-throwing Finnegan has reined in his command and pitched brilliantly. Over his past 32 innings, Finnegan touts a 1.69 ERA, 28.3% strikeout rate and 5.8% walk rate. He’s saved 23 games already this year (after saving 28 last year) and averaged 97.2 mph on his heater. Finnegan does have a propensity for pitch clock violations, one of which led to a lamentable walk-off loss to the Rockies this season when it occurred with the bases loaded. Be that as it may, he’s a viable leverage option based on his repertoire and results. LH Starter Yusei Kikuchi (33), Blue Jays -- Kikuchi is one of the top rental starters on the market. After a dominant showing in March/April/May, he hit a roadblock in June. He’s bounced back with four runs and an 18-to-2 K/BB ratio across 13 innings (two starts) in July. Kikuchi has a flat 4.00 ERA this season but a strong 26.1% strikeout rate and outstanding 5.4% walk rate. Since incorporating a new-look curveball into his arsenal last June, Kikuchi has a 3.77 ERA, 27.1% strikeout rate, 5.9% walk rate and 40.8% grounder rate in 212 1/3 innings. That’ll play in any rotation.  RH Starter Erick Fedde (31), White Sox -- He reached the majors in 2017, pitched in parts of six seasons as a National while posting a mid-5.00s ERA, and went to reinvent himself in the Korea Baseball Organization. Reinvent himself he did. Fedde posted a flat 2.00 ERA in South Korea, won KBO MVP honors and returned to North American ball on a two-year, $15MM contract with the South Siders. It’s perhaps the best move of rookie GM Chris Getz’s tenure to date.  Brandishing a new split-changeup and harder, more horizontal sweeper than the slider he used in D.C., Fedde has burst back onto the MLB scene as not just a serviceable back-end starter but a playoff-caliber arm. In 111 1/3 innings, he’s pitched to a 2.99 ERA with a 21.6% strikeout rate (just shy of league-average) and a terrific 6.6% walk rate. He’s kept the ball on the ground at a 46.5% clip, avoided hard contact very nicely, and left little doubt that he can help any contender down the stretch. Fedde’s deal is evenly distributed. He’s earning an eminently affordable $7.5MM both this year and next. He’s gone from MLB afterthought to bona fide deadline trade chip who should net the White Sox a legitimate top prospect (plus some secondary pieces). LH Closer Tanner Scott (30), Marlins -- Speaking of which: a flamethrowing closer who’s an impending free agent on a last place team? Scott might be the most quintessential trade candidate on the summer market. He’s not as good as his 1.42 ERA, as that belies a grisly 14.9% walk rate. Command has long been an issue for Scott, but he did walk a career-low 7.9% of hitters just last year while fanning more than a third of his opponents. Scott throws gas, keeps the ball on the ground and misses bats at a plus rate. His $5.7MM salary isn’t exorbitant. The Marlins are going to trade him, barring an injury. It’s just a question of where. RH Closer/Reliever Carlos Estevez (31), Angels -- Estevez should draw plenty of trade interest coming off his Reliever of the Month honors in June. The Angels closer is amidst a streak of 13 straight scoreless appearances. Aside from a rough couple weeks in mid-April, he’s been a force at the back of the Los Angeles bullpen. Estevez owns a personal-best 2.79 ERA across 29 innings. He’s striking out 26.2% of opponents while walking fewer than 4% of batters faced. After saving 31 games a year ago, he’s 16-19 in locking down the ninth inning this season. Estevez is playing on a $6.75MM salary and will head back to free agency next winter.
    • My daughter and I were flying back from San Diego (college orientation) to Virginia today and are stranded in Dallas after cancelled flights.  We took it as a sign that the O's play here Friday so we decided to go all in, go to the game and fly home Saturday.  Settled near the airport tonight, but going to relocate to a hotel near stadium with walkable stuff to do/see/eat.  Appreciate any hangouter advice!!
  • Popular Contributors

×
×
  • Create New...