MLBTR: Tanking, to Get Real Good

[DrungoHazewood]

As many as it takes. I'd be fine living without baseball for a year it meant a salary cap gets put into place. The disparity in baseball is rediculous between the haves and have nots. Yes teams like KC can put together a good run, but long term sustainability is highly unlikely for small market teams.

I think you'd be much better off with comprehensive revenue sharing. There's basically zero chance of a cap low enough to have a major impact. If anything came out of your long-term lockout it would be a cap set somewhere around $200M, maybe accompanied by a floor around $60-70M, or a guaranteed percentage of revenues going to payroll. Basically everyone from the Rays to the Red Sox would be unaffected by the cap/floor.

One thing I would like to see is a draft lottery. Take away the advantage of really tanking. Basically if you're (under .500/out of the playoffs/whatever) you have the same odds as a 52-win team of getting a top pick.

[Hallas]

I think every org stands to gain immensely if they tank for 1/2 a season, maybe 1.5 seasons tops. 3 seasons? not so much.

2 good draft years with top tier draft standing should get you 5-7 major leaguers. (Yes, I know that the average is 4 for 2 drafts, but the average is much higher when the expected 6-year WAR out of your first pick is like 20.) If you can't build a team around that then you probably screwed up somewhere or you have payroll constraints that prevent you from ever fielding a competitive team without a lot of shenanigans.

[Frobby]

I've been thinking about this subject a lot lately, in the context of what would Theo Epstein have done if he had come to the Orioles in the fall of 2011, compared to what Duquette did. I guess you could say he tanked the Cubs, but in reality, they weren't much worse after he got there, and they got better pretty darned quickly.

2010: 75-87

2011: 71-91

2012: 61-101 (first year of Theo)

2013: 66-96

2014: 73-89

2015: 97-65

That's a reasonably quick turnaround, if you ask me. They've made progress three years in a row, and now it feels like they are set up to be a very strong team for at least the next six years with the core of rookies that came up this season. His draft position was 6th, 2nd (Bryant), 4th (Schwarber), and 9th from 2012-15. So I don't think that drafting high is the most significant cause of the turnaround. Let's look at their players:

C: Montero (31), acquired by trade before 2015 season.

1B: Rizzo (25), acquired by trade before the 2012 season.

2B: Russell (21), acquired by trade in mid-2014

SS: Castro (25), signed as a 16-year old in 2006

3B: Bryant (23), #2 overall in 2013

LF: Coghlan (30), minor free agent signing in 2014 after not playing in the majors in 2013

CF: Fowler (29), acquired by trade before the 2015 season.

RF: Soler (23), signed out of Cuba in 2012 at age 20.

C/OF: Schwarber (22), #4 overall in 2014

SP: Arrieta (29), acquired by trade in mid-2013

SP: Lester (31), FA signing before the 2015 season

SP: Hendricks (25), acquired by trade in mid-2012

SP: Hammel (32), signed as a free agent before the 2015 season

I mean, Theo has totally rebuilt the team from the ground up, in a relatively short period of time. And all at payrolls the Orioles could have afforded. The team will start to get a bit expensive now, but their performance will match it.

[sportsfan8703]

One thing I wish we would borrow from the Astros tank is the piggy backing of starters early in the season. Right now we have no real SP prospects in the system. Let the guys go out there and see if we can't manufacture some. Guys like Tanner Scott or Garret Cleavinger should be starting until they fail in the upper minors. Maybe you do this in just the A ball teams this year and then the whole system the following year.

[Can_of_corn]

One thing I wish we would borrow from the Astros tank is the piggy backing of starters early in the season. Right now we have no real SP prospects in the system. Let the guys go out there and see if we can't manufacture some. Guys like Tanner Scott or Garret Cleavinger should be starting until they fail in the upper minors. Maybe you do this in just the A ball teams this year and then the whole system the following year.

The O's were running out a six man rotation with two throw days in 2014.

Not sure if they did it last year.

[gmelson26]

I've been thinking about this subject a lot lately, in the context of what would Theo Epstein have done if he had come to the Orioles in the fall of 2011, compared to what Duquette did. I guess you could say he tanked the Cubs, but in reality, they weren't much worse after he got there, and they got better pretty darned quickly.

2010: 75-87

2011: 71-91

2012: 61-101 (first year of Theo)

2013: 66-96

2014: 73-89

2015: 97-65

That's a reasonably quick turnaround, if you ask me. They've made progress three years in a row, and now it feels like they are set up to be a very strong team for at least the next six years with the core of rookies that came up this season. His draft position was 6th, 2nd (Bryant), 4th (Schwarber), and 9th from 2012-15. So I don't think that drafting high is the most significant cause of the turnaround. Let's look at their players:

C: Montero (31), acquired by trade before 2015 season.

1B: Rizzo (25), acquired by trade before the 2012 season.

2B: Russell (21), acquired by trade in mid-2014

SS: Castro (25), signed as a 16-year old in 2006

3B: Bryant (23), #2 overall in 2013

LF: Coghlan (30), minor free agent signing in 2014 after not playing in the majors in 2013

CF: Fowler (29), acquired by trade before the 2015 season.

RF: Soler (23), signed out of Cuba in 2012 at age 20.

C/OF: Schwarber (22), #4 overall in 2014

SP: Arrieta (29), acquired by trade in mid-2013

SP: Lester (31), FA signing before the 2015 season

SP: Hendricks (25), acquired by trade in mid-2012

SP: Hammel (32), signed as a free agent before the 2015 season

I mean, Theo has totally rebuilt the team from the ground up, in a relatively short period of time. And all at payrolls the Orioles could have afforded. The team will start to get a bit expensive now, but their performance will match it.

6/12 were trades. He wasn't buying rentals at the trade deadlines...

[DocJJ]

Actually, they never did. They always spent too much to tank and tried to play to a level that made them never the worst. In five seasons, the Orioles had top five picks. They got Matt Wieters, Dylan Bundy, Manny Machado. Kevin Gausman, and Matt Hobgood.

THIS.

Yes, we sucked for 14 years. But we only picked in the top 5 a few of those years. Remember, the odds of landing a future start plummet dramatically outside the first 5 picks (some years the top 3). You are no better off picking 11th than 27th. We were just "good" enough to screw ourselves out of the elite talent.

[hoosiers]

They actually didn't. There was never a plan to trade off all the stars. It was piecemeal at best and never really happened at all until Andy MacPhail showed us how ridiculous we were.

AM tanked. He started guys like Steve Traschel and worse. Folks here complained and moaned about how stupid it was, but we drafted top five for several years and would have had a much nicer run the last few years if Matusz or Hobgood had been a two or better.

There is no doubt AM fielded lesser teams to improve our draft position.

[Frobby]

Yes, we sucked for 14 years. But we only picked in the top 5 a few of those years. Remember, the odds of landing a future start plummet dramatically outside the first 5 picks (some years the top 3). You are no better off picking 11th than 27th. We were just "good" enough to screw ourselves out of the elite talent.

AM tanked. He started guys like Steve Traschel and worse. Folks here complained and moaned about how stupid it was, but we drafted top five for several years and would have had a much nicer run the last few years if Matusz or Hobgood had been a two or better.

There is no doubt AM fielded lesser teams to improve our draft position.

We drafted in the top 5 six years in a row, 2007-12, and also in 2002. In 2003 we drafted 7th (Markakis). That's plenty of high picks. Also, picking in the early part of every round of the draft is an advantage.

I guess you could say Andy tanked. We were already very bad when he arrived, and he didn't have a whole lot of talented players to trade away. But he did what he could.

[OFFNY]

Yes, we sucked for 14 years. But we only picked in the top 5 a few of those years. Remember, the odds of landing a future start plummet dramatically outside the first 5 picks (some years the top 3). You are no better off picking 11th than 27th. We were just "good" enough to screw ourselves out of the elite talent.

AM tanked. He started guys like Steve Traschel and worse. Folks here complained and moaned about how stupid it was, but we drafted top five for several years and would have had a much nicer run the last few years if Matusz or Hobgood had been a two or better.

There is no doubt AM fielded lesser teams to improve our draft position.

We drafted in the top 5 six years in a row, 2007-12, and also in 2002. In 2003 we drafted 7th (Markakis). That's plenty of high picks. Also, picking in the early part of every round of the draft is an advantage.

I guess you could say Andy tanked. We were already very bad when he arrived, and he didn't have a whole lot of talented players to trade away. But he did what he could.

That's kind of like entering a Volkswagen in the Indianapolis 500, and then being disappointed in its performance (borrowed from what Ron Stander's wife said when she was asked about her husband's chances to beat Joe Frazier in May of 1972.)

[jjnono]

It would never happen in America, but a Premier League-like relegation system would stop tanking within seconds of its adoption...

[weams]

As many as it takes. I'd be fine living without baseball for a year it meant a salary cap gets put into place. The disparity in baseball is rediculous between the haves and have nots. Yes teams like KC can put together a good run, but long term sustainability is highly unlikely for small market teams.

Baseball as we know it dies with a one year strike. Cal saved the game himself the last time we decided to self immolate.

[DrungoHazewood]

It would never happen in America, but a Premier League-like relegation system would stop tanking within seconds of its adoption...

Yes, no tanking in promotion-relegation leagues. It's replaced with selling your first born and one of your kidneys to avoid relegation, sometimes resulting in teams ending up "in administration". Which I suppose, from a fan's perspective, might be preferable. What do we care if Angelos sells his kids and his organs to desperately avoid last place, and the team ends up in bankruptcy court?

The downside is the Bundesliga team I follow, 1860 Munich. They were in contention for European competition when I first heard of them (i.e. reasonably near the top of the top league) but after a series of financial setbacks and mismanagement they find themselves fighting to keep from being relegated from the German equivalent of AAA to AA. As bad as 1998-2011 got, we never found ourselves on a lengthy road trip between Scranton and Akron fighting to stay out of the Eastern League.

[DrungoHazewood]

Baseball as we know it dies with a one year strike. Cal saved the game himself the last time we decided to self immolate.

It's a huge risk. MLS would probably love it, and make sure you don't do it in a World Cup year. Baseball would eventually bounce back, but to where?

[weams]

It's a huge risk. MLS would probably love it, and make sure you don't do it in a World Cup year. Baseball would eventually bounce back, but to where?

Had you seen this hunting joke?

A physicist, a biologist and a statistician were out hunting when they came upon a deer. The physicist shot and missed 5 feet to the left of the deer. Then the biologist shot and missed 5 feet to the right. The statistician put down his gun and cried, "We got him! We got him!"